Microeconomic adjustments in Uruguay during 1973–1981: The interplay of real and financial shocks

This paper uses the financial statements of industrial firms to develop an integrated firm's eye view of the changes in the Uruguayan economy during 1973–1981. In the first of three subperiods, 1973–1975, real financial costs were very negative and tended to offset low returns on operating assets. During 1976–1978, the dismantling of interest rate controls increased real financial costs, but other factors increased the returns on operating assets more rapidly. During 1979–1981, financial costs jumped enough to more than absorb increases in gross earnings, which were probably due to Argentine demand. The rates of earning and capital formation were highest among exporters in the second subperiod, when a major export promotion program was in place. This pattern was reversed in the third subperiod, as the promotion programs were dismantled and real currency appreciation seemed to squeeze gross earnings of exportables relatively more. This unequal squeezing was probably due to redundant tariff and other protection for import-competing producers.     

Stature decline and recovery in a food-rich export economy: Argentina 1900-1934

Using height data for recruits of a principal regiment at Buenos Aires, the paper revises the question of welfare in Argentina during the period 1900-1934. The period of rapid export-led growth (1900-1913) showed an absolute deterioration of “net nutrition.” On the other hand, the inter-war period (1918-1939), generally characterized as a period of economic “delay” or “retardation,” presented a steady improvement in nutrition and health conditions. Two powerful external shocks, World War I and the Great Depression, had a minimal impact on the biological welfare of Argentine recruits. Economic growth generated important regional and social inequalities.     

The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion

This paper investigates the determinants of the volatility of fiscal policy discretion. Using a linear dynamic panel data model for 113 countries from 1980 to 2006 and a system‐GMM estimator, we find that an increase in the number of episodes of government crisis, less democracy and presidentialist systems raise the volatility of the discretionary component of fiscal policy. Additionally, we show that countries with larger populations and less flexible exchange rate systems are more insured against uncertainty about the conduct of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various regional dummy variables, different subsets of countries and the presence of high inflation and crisis episodes.     

Corporate Credit Spreads and the Sovereign Ceiling in Latin America

We exploit a panel of 72 US dollar-denominated bonds issued by Latin American publicly listed firms between 1996 and 2004, a period of regional financial crises, to answer the following three questions: (1) Is sovereign risk a statistically and economically significant determinant of the corporate credit spread, controlling for firm- and bond-specific characteristics? (2) If yes, do market participants apply the sovereign ceiling rule adopted by rating agencies in the pricing of our bond market data? And (3) how do market views compare with the rating agencies ceiling policy for each corporate bond? We find strong evidence of an economically and statistically significant effect of sovereign risk on corporate spreads across different panel econometric specifications and bonds. Moreover, markets do not apply the ceiling rule in 77–90% of the bonds we sample and these findings are consistent with rating agencies’ policies toward the latter for about 50% of the firms. These results are robust to the inclusion of firm- and bond-specific variables derived from the structural approach to credit risk and to the business cycle in each country.     

Consumption, (dis)aggregate wealth,and asset returns

In this work, I show, from the consumer's budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, financial wealth, housing wealth and labor income (summarized by the variable cday) should predict better U.S. and U.K. quarterly stock market returns than a variable like cay from Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), which considers aggregate wealth instead.I find that the superior forecasting power of cday is due to: (i) its ability to track the changes in the composition of asset wealth; and (ii) the faster rate of convergence of the coefficients to the “long-run equilibrium” parameters.In addition, the results suggest that, while financial wealth shocks are mainly transitory, fluctuations in housing wealth are very persistent. Moreover, they highlight that expectations about future returns are “synchronized” across countries.     

Ad‐valorem tax incidence and after‐tax price adjustments: evidence from Brazilian basic basket food

Abstract Recent empirical work on tax incidence suggests that after‐tax price responses are independent of the tax change direction. This paper investigates asymmetric price responses to ad‐valorem tax changes in the Brazilian food market for 10 goods in 16 states during the period 1994–2008. Our results suggest that when tax rates increase, tax full shifting occurs for 2 of the 10 goods and tax overshifting occurs for one of the 10 goods; the price response to tax cuts is an undershifting for all goods. Moreover, this last result is similar to our estimation of (average) tax incidence (undershifting). We also investigate the short‐term and long‐term relationships between prices and VAT rate parameters and find that prices seem to respond to tax shocks within four months.     

Improving the “Leader–Follower” Relationship: Top Manager or Supervisor? The Ethical Leadership Trickle-Down Effect on Follower Job Response

Since time immemorial, the phenomenon of leadership and its understanding has attracted the attention of the business world because of its important role in human groups. Nevertheless, for years efforts to understand this concept have only been centred on people in leadership roles, thus overlooking an important aspect in its understanding: the necessary moral dimension which is implicit in the relationship between leader and follower. As an illustrative example of the importance of considering good morality in leadership, an empirical study is conducted in which a good performance of the “leader–follower” relationship is reflected when individuals perceive ethical leadership in higher hierarchical managerial levels. To be precise, findings of this study demonstrate that follower job response is improved through an ethics trickle-down partial effect from the Top Manager to the immediate supervisor, and also reveal both key aspects and managerial level on which the practice of ethical leadership should rest upon to have a stronger effect on the follower positive job response. Practical implications of these findings and directions for future research are finally presented.     

Real Options Valuation: A Case Study of an E‐commerce Company

This paper presents a real options valuation model with original solutions to some issues that arise frequently when trying to apply these models to real‐life situations. The authors build on existing models by introducing an innovative and intuitive risk neutral adjustment that allows us to work with all the simulated paths. The problem of incorporating real options into each path is solved with a “nearest neighbors” technique, and uncertainty is simulated using a beta distribution that adapts better to company‐specific information. The model is then applied to a real life e‐commerce company to produce the following insights: the expanded present value is higher than the traditional present value; the presence of several real options make them interact so that their values are nonadditive; and part of the expanded present value is explained by the presence of “Jensen's inequality” that stems from the “convexity” between the value of each year's cash flow and the uncertain variables.