Financial development and remittances: Micro-econometric evidence

We estimate a behavioural model of household’s remittances to investigate to what extent the level of financial development in the home country affects decisions on whether and how much to remit.     

A Bayesian approach to experimental analysis: trading in a laboratory financial market

We employ a Bayesian approach to analyze financial markets experimental data. We estimate a structural model of sequential trading in which trading decisions are classified in five types: private-information based, noise, herd, contrarian and irresolute. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we estimate the posterior distributions of the structural parameters. This technique allows us to compare several non-nested models of trade arrival. We find that the model best fitting the data is that in which a proportion of trades stems from subjects who do not rely only on their private information once the difference between the number of previous buy and sell decisions is at least two. In this model, the majority of trades stem from subjects following their private information. There is also a large proportion of noise trading activity, which is biased towards buying the asset. We observe little herding and contrarianism, as theory suggests. Finally, we observe a significant proportion of (irresolute) subjects who follow their own private information when it agrees with public information, but abstain from trading when it does not.     

Hierarchical Modelling of Disparities in Preferences for Redistribution*

We evaluate the magnitude of the disparities in the demand for redistribution across European countries and American states during the 2000s. Modelling the demand for redistribution in a multilevel framework, we identify the determinants that contribute the most in predicting support for redistribution. We observe that individual characteristics and contextual variables are associated with demand for redistribution in the same way in Europe and in the US, whereas others exert different influences on the probability of supporting redistribution. We find important differences from some well‐established evidence obtained from data collected for the 1980s and the 1990s.     

Marx Inside the Circuit: Discipline device,wage bargaining and unemployment in a sequential monetary economy

The aim of this paper is to show that Marxian labour theory of value can be consistently interpreted in terms of the monetary circuit model, where firms need initial finance to start production and where the money supply is endogenous. In contrast to the recently revived Marxian monetary models, in particular the New Interpretation, it is argued here that although the money wage is bargained for on the labour market, the real wage is determined by firms' choices, since firms autonomously determine the structure of production and hence real consumption for the working class as a whole. This does not mean that firms are able to set the real wage without economic and social constraints. Starting from our circuitist reading of the labour theory of value and distribution, a model is developed in order to determine the level of employment and income distribution, on the assumptions that (i) the industrial reserve army affects wage bargaining and labour effort and that (ii) workers react to the failure of their expectations on the real wage by reducing their work intensity. In this context, it is shown that firms may increase their share of profits over time only be means of innovations.     

Parametric and Non‐Parametric Estimates of Willingness to Pay for Forest Recreation in Northern Ireland: A Discrete Choice Contingent Valuation Study with Follow‐Ups

In this study we show that forest areas contribute significantly to the estimated benefits from outdoor recreation in Northern Ireland. Secondly we provide empirical evidence of the gains in the statistical efficiency of both benefit and parameter estimates obtained by analysing follow‐up responses with Double Bounded interval data analysis. As these gains are considerable, it is clearly worth considering this method in CVM survey design even when moderately large sample sizes are used. Finally we demonstrate that estimates of means and medians of WTP distributions for access to forest recreation show plausible magnitude, are consistent with previous UK studies, and converge across parametric and non‐parametric methods of estimation.     

Modelling Determinants of Participation,Number of Trips and Site Choice for Outdoor Recreation in Protected Areas

This is a study on demand for outdoor recreation in a national system of environmentally protected areas. The exercise is based on a nationwide survey carried out in 1996 from a stratified random sample of 5,574 Italian households. Data on socio‐economic characteristics and recreational choice behaviour of respondents were collected and this information was supplemented by a second data‐base containing information on 193 Italian EPAs in order to characterise the different outdoor destinations on the basis of their recreational attributes. These data sets are used here to model choices of outdoor recreation within environmentally protected areas, using a sequence of three different models: (i) a dichotomous choice logit model for the probability of participation conditional on household covariates; (ii) a count data Poisson model to estimate the household's expected number of trips per year; (iii) a conditional logit model to estimate the probability of site selection conditional on site attributes. We report the estimated per‐trip welfare changes derivable from an actual policy proposal which would extend the area under environmental protection by ten per cent.     

Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change

Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.     

Between Wicksell and Hayek

A bstract Mises' Theory is grounded on the ultra-Wicksellian idea that the pure credit system represents the working of a modern monetary economy, and that forcing banks to raise the rate of money interest does not need to operate through some binding bank-liquidity constraint. It is the rise in the relative price of consumption goods against production goods that accounts for the end of inflation. According to Mises, it is in the power of the banks to resist this readjustment; in this event, the only end to hyperinflation comes from the breaking of the monetary system. Hayek develops the second side of Mises'argument, the capital-allocation effect, while the first side, the ultra-Wicksellian picture of the monetary economy, is either weakened or taken for granted. Wicksell's 1914 reaction to Mises'book is recalled. Some criticism of Mises'readjustment mechanism from a Keynesian-Schumpeterian point of view is offered in the concluding remarks.     

Face validity in personality tests: psychometric instruments and projective techniques in comparison

Face validity is a controversial kind of test validity. Personality tests are divided into two big categories: projective techniques and psychometric instruments. They differ also for face validity, which influences the perception that people have of tests themselves. The article reports the scientific debate on face validity, and the results of a study carried out on naive subjects in order to let them compare projective techniques and psychometric instruments on the mere basis of their surface. An ad hoc questionnaire was administered. It asked subjects to compare projective techniques and psychometric instruments by using 13 adjectives. The sample, accidental, is composed of 238 participants, 45 males and 193 females. The data were substantially analyzed through techniques of Correspondence Analysis. Personality tests are principally judged through two dimensions: the aesthetic and the efficacy. The first dimension characterizes in particular projective techniques; the second, psychometric instruments. Although participants acknowledge that psychometric instruments are credible and scientific, there is a clear preference for projective techniques, principally by females, people younger than 22 and participants with lower education. Personality tests have an appearance that is judged by those who look at them. The aesthetic seems to prevail on the efficacy perception, but it would be suitable to carry on the same research with a sample stratified in respect of the personal details measured by the questionnaire.