Real interest rates,inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand

We investigate the time-series properties of Australian and New Zealand real interest rates within a Markov-switching framework. This enables us to identify characteristics in real interest rate behavior hitherto unacknowledged. We find that rates switch between alternative stationary regimes characterized by differing means, speeds of mean-reversion and volatility. For New Zealand, high rates of inflation increase the probability of remaining in a regime characterized by a faster speed of adjustment. Further application of this methodology considers the real interest rate differential between Australia and New Zealand and points to differing regimes based on volatility rather than persistence.     

在转型中迷失：通往资本主义道路上的生活满意度

在上世纪90年代东欧从社会主义向资本主义转型过程中,生活满意度随GDP的暴跌和回复而同步下降和上升,但其回复是与GDP的回复程度不相称的。2005年,在GDP比上世纪90年代初期平均高出25％的情况下,生活满意度却仅仅回复到其转型初期的水平,很可能仍低于转型前的水平。生活满意度在因物质生活水平的改善而提高的同时,却也因工作、保健和家庭生活而有所下降。在整个90年代,生活满意度的差异扩大,其中受冲击最大的,是受教育较少的人和年龄超过30岁的人;男人和女人同等受害。     

Calibrating an algorithm for estimating transactions from FXFX exchange rate quotes

In this paper we investigate the efficiency of a class of transaction-generating algorithms, originally suggested in Bollerslev and Domowitz (1993). Our comparison utilizes real transaction data recorded over Reuters D2000-2 electronic broking system for 7 h in June 1993 and transaction data generated from FXFX quotations over an identical period. Results suggest that, at this high-frequency data sampling, the performance of these transaction-generating algorithms is poor, with the most likely explanation of this outcome due to the high-frequency characteristics of FXFX spreads and quotation intensity.     

Integrating expected coverage and local reliability for emergency medical services location problems

Daskin's MEXCLP model [Daskin M. A maximum expected covering location model: formulation, properties, and heuristic solution. Transportation Science 1983;17:48-70] was one of the first efforts to capture the stochastic nature of emergency medical services (EMS) location problems within a mixed-integer formulation. With their subsequent introduction of MALP, ReVelle and Hogan [The maximum availability location problem. Transportation Science 1989;23:192-200] offered two key advances, local vehicle busyness estimates and the α-reliability objective. While these constructs have influenced many subsequent EMS location models, they have been subjected to relatively little empirical analysis. To address this, we introduce the LR-MEXCLP, a hybrid model combining the local busyness estimates of MALP with the maximum coverage objective of MEXCLP. We then solve a series of problems with all three models and employ simulation to estimate aggregate service levels. We find that LR-MEXCLP leads to modest but consistent service gains over both MALP and MEXCLP. These results support the merits of local busyness estimates, but they also suggest that the α-reliability objective may be inappropriate when seeking to maximize aggregate system response capabilities. More generally, our research underscores the utility of (a) linking modeling assumptions and goals with real-world application contexts, and (b) employing simulation or other techniques to validate theoretical results.     

Promise and peril in implementing pay‐for‐performance

Why would managers abandon pay‐for‐performance plans they initiated with great hopes? Why would employees celebrate this decision? This article explores why managers made their decisions in 12 of 13 pay‐for‐performance “experiments” at Hewlett‐Packard in the mid‐1990s. We find that managers thought the costs of these programs to be higher than the benefits. Alternative managerial practices such as effective leadership, clear objectives, coaching, or training were thought a better investment. Despite the undisputed instrumentality of pay‐for‐performance to motivate, little attention has been given to whether the benefits outweigh the costs or the “fit” of these programs with high‐commitment cultures like Hewlett‐Packard was at the time. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

WILL BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE EURO AREA CONVERGE? A CRITICAL SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

Abstract.  This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.     

Double symmetry model and its decompositions in square contingency tables having ordered categories

In this paper, we have employed the non-standard log-linear models to fit the double symmetry models and some of its decompositions to square contingency tables having ordered categories. SAS PROC GENMOD was employed to fit these models although we could similarly have used GENLOG in SPSS or GLM in STATA. A SAS macro generates the factor or scalar variables required to fit these models. Two sets of \(4 \times 4\) unaided distance vision data that have been previously analyzed in (Tahata and Tomizawa, Journal of the Japan Statistical Society 36:91–106, 2006) were employed for verification of results. We also extend the approach to the Danish \(5 \times 5\) Mobility data as well as to the \(3 \times 3\) Danish longitudinal study data of subjective health, firstly reported in (Andersen, The Statistical Analysis of Categorical Data, Springer:Berlin, 1994) and analyzed in (Tahata and Tomizawa, Statistical Methods and Applications 19:307–318, 2010). Results obtained agree with those published in previous literature on the subject. The approaches suggest here eliminate any programming that might be required in order to apply these class of models to square contingency tables.     

Learning Why More Learning Takes Place in Some Classrooms Than Others

Abstract. The relatively poor average performance of German students on the recent PISA international evaluations of 15- and 16-year-olds' literary skills (2000) and mathematical skills (2003) and the wide variation in performance, with low-income students scoring particularly poorly, have led to calls for reforms of the German educational system. Understanding why students in some classrooms learn more than do those in other classrooms is an important first step in considering alternative reform strategies. Possible explanations include differences in teacher quality, class sizes and peer groups, and also differences among the types of secondary schools that parents select for their children. This paper illustrates a set of techniques that are useful in examining the roles these factors play in predicting why, net of family background and prior achievement, the average achievement of children in some classrooms is much higher than that of children in other classrooms. We illustrate the use of these techniques with a dataset from Bogotá, Colombia, that has two attractive properties. First, some teachers teach multiple classes of students. Second, students are enrolled in schools in two sectors (public and private). Application of the techniques described in this paper could shed light on the reasons why the average academic achievement of German students attending some schools is much higher than that of German students attending other schools.     

Innovation and knowledge-intensive business service: the contribution of knowledge-intensive business service to innovation in manufacturing establishments

It is well established that knowledge-intensive business service (KIBS) firms can be innovators in their own right. It is also well established that KIBS can contribute to innovation in their client firms. This role of KIBS has been theorised, and some of the processes by which KIBS contribute to innovation have been scrutinised by way of case studies. However, there are few, if any, large-scale analyses that permit the two following questions to be addressed: (i) Do firms that use KIBS systematically introduce more innovations than those that do not? (ii) Is recourse to certain types of KIBS associated with certain types of innovation? Our survey of KIBS use across 804 manufacturing establishments in Quebec shows that KIBS contribute to their client's innovation – thereby confirming in a more general way what has been observed in case studies – but also that different types of KIBS contribute to different types of innovation.     

On the measurement of dynamic effects of integration

By allowing a freer interplay of market forces, the market liberalization involved in closer economic integration can improve the efficiency of productive factors. This permits greater output from the same inputs. A side effect of this improved efficiency is an improved investment climate in the integrating region. This in turn will result in a higher investment rate, thereby augmenting the initial output gains by providing the economy with more resources. The same sort of induced capital formation can also boost investment in human capital and knowledge capital. Primitive calculations of the size and timing of these induced capital formation can be made using an aggregate GDP function. A rough approximation of the adjustment path shows that the extra investment will stimulate growth for decades, although half of the total effect will occur in the first 10 to 50 years.