Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data: Adding polls to a structural forecasting model

Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s vote share usually a few months in advance. Some political scientists contend that adding vote intention polls to these models—i.e., synthesizing ‘fundamental’ variables and polling information—can lead to important accuracy gains. In this paper, we look at the efficiency of different model specifications in predicting the Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 2015. We find that vote intention polls only allow modest accuracy gains late in the campaign. With this backdrop in mind, we then use different model specifications to make ex ante forecasts of the 2019 federal election. Our findings have a number of important implications for the forecasting discipline in Canada as they address the benefits of combining polls and ‘fundamental’ variables to predict election results; the efficiency of varying lag structures; and the issue of translating votes into seats.     

Segmented labour markets and the estimation of wage functions

This paper uses a stratified random sample of private sector employees to estimate wage equations for both the male labour market as a whole and six ‘segments’ of the labour market, segement which are defined with respect to the industry and size characteristics of the employing establishmen. Highly conventional results are obtained when wage equations are estimated for the male labour market as a whole, or within two segements, comprising almost half the survey population. However, one can reject conclusively the hypothesis that the same estimating equation is appropriate for modelling wage determination in all segments and if a ‘human capital’ (HK) model is, within segements, tested against more appropriate alternative hypotheses for wage determination using the Davidson and Mackinnon (1981) methodology for the testing of non-nested hypotheses, the conclusion is that one should reject the HK specification and not reject the alternative.

It is therefore argued that the disaggregation of labour market data reveals differences in the wage determination process that are not consistent with the view that labour markets are ‘dualistic’ but are consistent with the view that are segmented.     

Equity and asset growth among Subchapter S banks

Since 2004, commercial banks in the United States have been allowed to elect Subchapter S (hence Sub-S) status with up to 100 shareholders. That limitation may promote more effective monitoring of bank managers by shareholders which can, in turn, explain previous findings of superior performance among Sub-S banks. The present research focuses on the possibility that the shareholder limitation also constrains opportunities for bank growth, or a slow growth hypothesis for Sub-S banks. Using a differences-in-differences regression approach for a sample of community banks (i.e., less than $1b in assets) from 2004 to 2014, and controlling for initial assets and urban location, it is found that annual growth in real assets and equity was significantly higher among banks that never held Sub-S status than for banks that always held Sub-S status, and that banks switching to Sub-S later grew significantly faster than those that always held Sub-S status. Fixed effects regressions show that switching to Sub-S status significantly reduced equity growth, with asset growth significantly reduced after 2008. In conjunction with earlier findings, the results suggest that the availability of Sub-S status helped to protect and strengthen community banks across a time period including substantial financial turmoil.     

Environmental Regulation and Innovation Offsets in the Bluegrass Seed Industry

Burning bluegrass seed stubble is an important production practice that, among other benefits, increases production and stand life of this perennial crop. Despite economic forecasts that higher production costs from the 1996 state ban on seed stubble burning would reduce Washington production by up to 30%, output in the years 1998–2005 was nearly two-thirds higher than in any previous eight-year period. This study seeks to explain why that paradoxical behavior occurred. This study puts forward and systematically tests several hypotheses. The only hypothesis with any support, innovation offsets, is examined by an assessment of contemporaneous innovations and by corroborative statistical evidence.     

Strategic Internet application trends in supply chain management

The Internet is evolving as a powerful force in the new marketplace where the nexus of competition has changed from individual firms to efficient supply chain networks both between firms and within industries. This study explores Internet adoption patterns and operational applications in US supply chain networks. The data reveal that the integration of the Internet into supply chain management applications has increased and has moved away from indiscriminate application of novel Internet technologies towards becoming a focused endeavor with precise expectations and measurable goals. Specifically, the study finds that Internet usage within supply chains is maturing as evidenced by enhanced and increased productivity, reduced costs and increased profit for participating firms.     

Meta-Functional Benefit Transfer for Wetland Valuation: Making the Most of Small Samples

This study applies functional Benefit Transfer via Meta-Regression Modeling to derive valuation estimates for wetlands in an actual policy setting of proposed groundwater transfers in Eastern Nevada. We illustrate how Bayesian estimation techniques can be used to overcome small sample problems notoriously present in Meta-functional Benefit Transfer. The highlights of our methodology are: (i) The hierarchical modeling of heteroskedasticity; (ii) The ability to incorporate additional information via refined priors; and (ii) The derivation of measures of model performance with the corresponding option of model-averaged Benefit Transfer predictions. Our results indicate that economic losses associated with the disappearance of these wetlands can be substantial and that primary valuation studies are warranted.      

Forecasting derived product demand in commercial construction

This article presents a practical scheme for forecasting derived demand for an industrial product used in the nonresidential construction industry. The method proposed includes a basic product requirement model to be used in conjunction with lagged construction award data. Twelve-month moving averages are used to smooth the basic construction contract award data which is analyzed by construction type and by geographic region.The methodology described enables accurate product sales potential estimation, and when compared with smoothed historical sales data, provides a means of evaluating market penetration. Although the method presented is concerned primarily with forecasting in the relatively short term, the scheme may be extended to a medium term corresponding roughly to the construction cycle. The article deals with application to a specific industry segment. However, the forecasting and evaluation procedure is adaptable to other industrial products.     

Effects of Supplier and Customer Integration on Product Innovation and Performance: Empirical Evidence in Hong Kong Manufacturers

While the beneficial impacts of supplier and customer integration are generally acknowledged, very few empirical research studies have examined how an organization can achieve better product performance through product innovation enhanced by such integration. This paper thus examines the impact of key supplier and customer integration processes (i.e., information sharing and product codevelopment with supplier and customer, respectively) on product innovation as well as their impact on product performance. It contributes to existing literature by asking how such integration activities affect product innovation and performance in both direct and indirect ways. After surveying 251 manufacturers in Hong Kong, this study tested the relationships among information sharing, product codevelopment, product innovativeness, and performance with three control variables (i.e., company size, type of industry, and market certainty). Structural equation modeling with correlation and t‐tests was used to test the hypothesized research model. The findings indicate a direct, positive relationship between supplier and customer integration and product performance. In particular, this study verifies that sharing information with suppliers and product codevelopment with customers directly improves product performance. In addition, this study empirically examines the indirect effects of supplier and customer integration processes on product performance, mediated by innovation. This has seldom been attempted in previous research. The empirical findings show that product codevelopment with suppliers improves performance, mediated by innovation. However, the sampled firms cannot improve their product innovation by sharing information with their current customers and suppliers as well as codeveloping new products with the customers. If the adoption of supplier and customer integration is not cost free, the findings of this study may suggest firms work on particular supplier and customer integration processes (i.e., product codevelopment with suppliers) to improve their product innovation. The study also suggests that companies codevelop new products only with new customers and lead users instead of current ones for product innovation. For managers, this study has demonstrated that both information sharing and product codevelopment affect performance directly and indirectly. Managers should put more emphasis on these key processes, especially when linked with product innovation. Managers should consider involving their suppliers and customers in the early stages of design. Information sharing with suppliers is also important in product development. As suggested by this study, extensive effort on supplier and customer integration should be made to directly augment current product performance and product innovation at the same time.     

Real interest rates,inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand

We investigate the time-series properties of Australian and New Zealand real interest rates within a Markov-switching framework. This enables us to identify characteristics in real interest rate behavior hitherto unacknowledged. We find that rates switch between alternative stationary regimes characterized by differing means, speeds of mean-reversion and volatility. For New Zealand, high rates of inflation increase the probability of remaining in a regime characterized by a faster speed of adjustment. Further application of this methodology considers the real interest rate differential between Australia and New Zealand and points to differing regimes based on volatility rather than persistence.