Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test

Recent studies have analysed the ability of measures of uncertainty to predict movements in macroeconomic and financial variables. The objective of this paper is to employ the recently proposed nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test to analyse the predictability of returns and volatility of sixteen U.S. dollar-based exchange rates (for both developed and developing countries) over the monthly period of 1999:01–2012:03, based on information provided by a news-based measure of relative uncertainty, i.e., the differential between domestic and U.S. uncertainties. The causality-in-quantile approach allows us to test for not only causality-in-mean (1st moment), but also causality that may exist in the tails of the joint distribution of the variables. In addition, we are also able to investigate causality-in-variance (volatility spillovers) when causality in the conditional-mean may not exist, yet higher order interdependencies might emerge. We motivate our analysis by employing tests for nonlinearity. These tests detect nonlinearity, as well as the existence of structural breaks in the exchange rate returns, and in its relationship with the EPU differential, implying that the Granger causality tests based on a linear framework is likely to suffer from misspecification. The results of our nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test indicate that for seven exchange rates EPU differentials have a causal impact on the variance of exchange rate returns but not on the returns themselves at all parts of the conditional distribution. We also find that EPU differentials have predictive ability for both exchange rate returns as well as the return variance over the entire conditional distribution for four exchange rates.     

Knowledge flows within multinational corporations

Pursuing a nodal (i.e., subsidiary) level of analysis, this paper advances and tests an overarching theoretical framework pertaining to intracorporate knowledge transfers within multinational corporations (MNCs). We predicted that (i) knowledge outflows from a subsidiary would be positively associated with value of the subsidiary’s knowledge stock, its motivational disposition to share knowledge, and the richness of transmission channels; and (ii) knowledge inflows into a subsidiary would be positively associated with richness of transmission channels, motivational disposition to acquire knowledge, and the capacity to absorb the incoming knowledge. These predictions were tested empirically with data from 374 subsidiaries within 75 MNCs headquartered in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Except for our predictions regarding the impact of source unit's motivational disposition on knowledge outflows, the data provide either full or partial support to all of the other elements of our theoretical framework. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of external forces on cartel network dynamics: Direct research in the diamond industry

This paper describes the impact of external environmental forces on cartel networks. Using a case research approach, this report examines two leading business networks within one industry, over time. The results suggest that (a) bargaining power of intermediaries increases with the advent of new and powerful actors, (b) process activities that cartels previously controlled are being outsourced to new actors sometimes based in developing countries, (c) other actors are acquiring resources once dominated by a cartel, (d) external forces triggered by the illegal diamond trade, such as international regulatory constraints, no longer favour cartels like De Beers, and (e) over time, these and additional environment factors are forcing actors like De Beers who perform rigid process activities to become more flexible. For example, forces are moving cartels which relied previously on hand-picked intermediaries in highly controlled networks to market their products to adopt a flexible market-focused expansion of operations in retail contexts.     

Changing threat perceptions and the efficient provisioning of international security

This paper proposes a mechanism for structuring international institutions to efficiently provision global security against the threat of a rogue nation, by an alliance of nations. This paper investigates how the evolution of public opinion, in the respective countries facing the rogue nation's threat, affects the mechanism. It also analyzes the impact of “fair‐weather friends” within the alliance, i.e., allies that increase support for security effort when the threat becomes less dangerous but withdraw support in more dangerous circumstances. Additionally, it explores how the possibility of sequential action by the allies, rather than simultaneous action, might affect joint security efforts.     

An analysis of delayed formal and interlinked informal credit in agriculture

A model of interlinked credit-product contracts between small farmers and large farmers when the small farmer faces delay in getting formal credit and the large farmer does not, has been developed. The small farmer remains on the reservation income level, and his reservation income is inversely related to the length of the delay. However, this does not hamper the productivity of the small farmer. The large farmer extracts the surplus through the interlinked contract and this surplus is positively related to the length of the delay. Interlinkage and non-inter-linkage equilibria become identical if the small farmer gets the formal credit at the beginning of the crop cycle. Various subsidy policies worsen the distribution of formal credit.     

关于当前社会保险重大问题的研究

覆盖城乡的社会保障制度体系的基本建立,是我国改革开放以来经济社会发展取得的重大成就,但距离制度的完善还任重道远。本文指出当前社保制度改革中还存在诸如不同制度保障水平差距较大、基金支付压力大、基金统筹层次低、缴费负担重等重大问题,在对问题成因认真分析的基础上,提出今后改革的方向是以增强公平性、适应流动性、保证可持续性为重点,并提出完善基本养老保险制度模式、加快提高社会保险统筹层次、鼓励发展补充性养老保险和医疗保险、提高基金投资效率、将财政投入作为养老保险基金的稳定筹资来源、取消基本医疗保险最高支付限额等具体政策建议。     

Analysing customers' reviews and ratings for online food deliveries: A text mining approach

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between online reviews and ratings through text mining and empirical techniques. An Indian food delivery portal ( Zomato.com ) was used, where 50 restaurants on Presence Across Nation (PAN) basis were selected through stratified random sampling. A total of 2530 reviews were collected, scrutinized, and analysed. Using the NVivo software for qualitative analysis, seven themes were identified from collected reviews, out of which, the ‘delivery’ theme was explored further for identifying sub-themes. Linear regression modelling was used to identify the variables affecting delivery ratings and sentiment analysis was also performed on the identified sub-themes. Regression results revealed that hygiene and pricing (delivery subthemes) demonstrated lower delivery ratings. These variables can be established as indicators for restaurants and related online food delivery services to build their business model around them. Similarly, negative sentiments were observed in pricing and hygiene sub-themes. Restaurants and online food services can enhance hygiene levels of their food delivery process in order to receive higher delivery ratings. Similarly, pricing of food items can be modified such that customers are not deterred from ordering the items—food and ordering service do not become cost-prohibitive. This study devised a standardized methodology for analysing vast amounts of online user-generated content (UGC). Findings from this study can be extrapolated to other sectors and service industries such as, tourism, cleaning, transportation, hospitals and engineering especially during the pandemic.     

Sustainability as corporate culture of a brand for superior performance

Sustainability research highlights new challenges and opportunities for businesses. This paper reviews the literature to understand the ability of sustainable green initiatives when practiced as a corporate culture to individually create new opportunities for operations, management and marketing. According to current research, business opportunities exclusively available to different functions of a firm can drive its performance. The role of marketing in the achievement of superior performance by virtue of sustainability practices is also explained by the existing literature. Branding literature, however, fails to explain the influence of a brand on sustainability-driven opportunities available to a firm for superior performance. The objective of this study is to explore if a brand can strengthen the ability of sustainability-based green initiatives of managers to drive opportunities available to a firm for superior performance. A conceptual framework grounded in the triple bottom line theory is presented based on the assumption that brand as a stimulating factor can accelerate the conversion of opportunities available to a business into superior performance. Academic and managerial perspectives have been used to draw upon the implications of the model. Both practitioners and academic researchers will benefit from future research on this topic.     

Keeping up with the Vaishyas? Caste and relative standing in India

People care about relative, and not only absolute, income. Thispaper investigates the importance of relative income withinand between castes in the Indian caste system, using a choiceexperimental approach. The results indicate that slightly morethan half of the marginal utility of income comes from somekind of relative income effects, on average. This is comparableto the results from previous studies in other countries. Belongingto a low caste and having a low family income are associatedwith higher concern for relative income. Moreover, an increasein the mean income of the caste to which the individual belongs,everything else held constant, reduces utility for the individual.Thus, the negative welfare effect of having a reduced relativeincome compared to the own caste average income dominates thepositive welfare effect due to increased relative income ofthe own caste compared to the income of other castes.