Real Incentive Effects of Soft Information

Both soft, noncontractible, and hard, contractible, information are informative about managerial ability and future firm performance. If a manager's future compensation depends on expectations of ability or future performance, then the manager has implicit incentives to affect the information. We examine the real incentive effects of soft information in a dynamic agency with limited commitment. When long-term contracts are renegotiated, the rewards for future performance inherent in long-term contracts allow the principal partial control over the implicit incentives. This is because the soft information affects the basis for contract renegotiation. With short-term contracts, the principal has no control over the basis for contract negotiation, and thus long-term contracts generally dominate short-term contracts. With long-term contracts, the principal's control over implicit incentives is characterized in terms of effective contracting on an implicit aggregation of the soft information that arises from predicting (forming expectations of) future performance. We provide sufficient conditions for soft information to have no real incentive effects. In general, implicit incentives not controllable by the principal include fixed effects, such as career concerns driven by labor markets external to the agency. When controllable incentives span the fixed effects of career concerns, the latter have no real effects with regard to total managerial incentives—they would optimally be the same with or without career concerns. Our analysis suggests empirical tests for estimating career concerns that should explicitly incorporate noncontractible information.     

Class structure and inequality during the industrial revolution: lessons from England's social tables, 1688–1867

This article measures the size and incomes of six major social classes across the industrial revolution using social tables for England and Wales in 1688, 1759, 1798, 1846, and 1867. Lindert and Williamson famously revised these tables, and this article extends their work in three directions. First, servants are removed from middle‐ and upper‐class households in the tables of King, Massie, and Colquhoun and tallied separately. Second, estimates are made for the same tables of the number and incomes of women and children employed in the various occupations, and, third, incomes are broken down into rents, profits, and employment income. These extensions to the tables allow variables to be computed that can be checked against independent estimates as a validation exercise. The tables are retabulated in a standardized set of six social groups to highlight the changing structure of society across the industrial revolution. Gini coefficients are computed from the social tables to measure inequality. These measures confirm that Britain traversed a ‘Kuznets curve’ in this period. Changes in overall inequality are related to the changing fortunes of the major social classes.     

Costs and potential funding of expanded public pension coverage in Asia

Public pension burdens in most emerging Asian economies are still relatively small. However, there are a number of reasons to believe that they will increase markedly in the coming years. First, many Asian economies will face rapidly ageing populations, which will raise pension and other old‐age‐related spending dramatically. Second, as economies develop, political pressures to expand the coverage of public pensions and raise pension benefits will likely increase. The first objective of this paper is to identify the potential fiscal burden of public pensions in 23 emerging Asian economies, based on econometric models and forecasts of GDP and demographic trends. Using two different methodologies yields estimated increases in the average share of public pension expenditures in GDP of 1.0 percentage point and 3.6 percentage points by 2030 compared with current levels. We believe the latter estimate is more realistic. The second objective is to recommend policies to provide adequate funding for public pension needs, including enhancing the efficiency of social insurance programs, improving the balance of revenues and expenditures, implementing more explicit fiscal rules and frameworks, and establishing stronger fiscal surveillance at the national and regional levels.     

Adverse Selection and the Decline in Private Health Insurance Coverage in Australia: 1989–95

The decline in private health insurance coverage over the period 1989–95 is analysed using the ABS National Health Surveys. Individuals' health status and health risk behaviours are found to be significant determinants of their decision to purchase private health insurance. At a point in time, the pool of the insured is very heterogeneous, with a mix of both good and bad health risks. It is found that the decline in insurance coverage over the period 1989–95 coincided with an increase in the degree of 'adverse selection' within the insured population.     

Earnings management and abnormal returns: Evidence from the 1970–1972 Price Control Regulations

We examine the association between abnormal returns and earnings management in the context of price control regulations to test the construct validity of the earnings management model. Abnormal returns are used as a market–based measure, and discretionary accruals are employed to measure earnings management. Our results support the hypotheses that (1) price control regulations affect firms' security prices negatively, (2) firms make income–decreasing discretionary accruals to increase the likelihood of price increase approval, and (3) firms that are affected most negatively by the regulations manage earnings more aggressively. We conclude that the earnings management model we use in this study is capable of predicting opportunistic discretionary accruals.     

Moderation by goal commitment of the feedback–performance relationship: Theoretical explanation and preliminary study

This paper presents goal commitment as one stage of a multidimensional goal striving process that affects feedback acquisition, processing, and use during the achievement of performance goals. Specifically, this paper argues that higher goal commitment leads to more effective acquisition, processing, and use of feedback that in turn fosters higher performance than does lower goal commitment. To provide a preliminary test of this proposition, data from an earlier field study conducted by the author and colleagues [J. Occup. Organ. Psychol. 72 (1999) 107] were used to examine the moderating effects of goal commitment on the relationship between perceived task feedback amount and work performance of 196 rehabilitation counselors. Results were consistent with this proposed interaction, as perceived task feedback amount had a positive linear relationship with work performance for higher goal commitment rehabilitation counselors and a negative linear relationship with performance for lower goal commitment counselors. The discussion urges researchers to broaden their views of goal commitment beyond the goal difficulty–performance relationship and to devote more attention to moderators of the feedback–performance relationship. Directions for future research and practical implications are also discussed.     

Some implications for monetary policy of uncertain exchange rate pass-through

The paper uses MULTIMOD to examine the implications of uncertain exchange rate pass‐through for the conduct of monetary policy. From the policymaker's perspective, uncertainty about exchange rate pass‐through implies uncertainty about policy multipliers and the impact of state variables on stabilization objectives. When faced with uncertainty about the strength of exchange rate pass‐through, policymakers will make less costly errors by overestimating the strength of pass‐through rather than underestimating it. The analysis suggests that pass‐through uncertainty of the magnitude considered does not result in efficient policy response coefficients that are smaller than those under certainty.     

PEDAKSI: Methodology for Collecting Data about Survey Non-Respondents

The effects of unit non-response on survey errors are of great concern to researchers.However, direct assessment of non-response bias in survey estimates is rarely possible.Attempts are often made to adjust for the effects of non-response by weighting, but thisusually relies on the use of frame data or external population data, which are at bestmodestly correlated with the survey variables. This paper reports the development ofa method to collect limited survey data from non-respondents to personal interviewsurveys and a large-scale field test of the method on the British Crime Survey (BCS).The method is shown to be acceptable and low cost, to provide valid data, and to haveno detrimental effect on the main survey. The use of the resultant data to estimatenon-response bias is illustrated and some substantive conclusions are drawn for the BCS.     

Getting the Most Out of a Mandatory Subordinated Debt Requirement

Recent advances in asset pricing—the reduced-form approach to pricing risky debt and derivatives—are used to quantitatively evaluate several proposals for mandatory bank issue of subordinated debt. We find that credit spreads on both fixed- and floating-rate subordinated debt provide relatively clean signals of bank risk and are not unduly influenced by nonrisk factors. Fixed-rate debt with a put is unacceptable, but making the putable debt floating resolves most problems. Our approach also helps to clarify several different notions of “bank risk.”