Identifying fiscal policy (in)effectiveness from the differential counter‐cyclicality of government spending in the interwar period

Differences across decades in the counter‐cyclical stance of fiscal policy can identify whether the growth in government spending affects output growth and so speeds recovery from a recession. We study government‐spending reaction functions from the 1920s and 1930s for twenty countries. There are two main findings. First, surprisingly, government spending was less counter‐cyclical in the 1930s than in the 1920s. Second, the growth of government spending did not have a significant effect on output growth, so that there is little evidence that this feature of fiscal policy played a stabilizing role in the interwar period.     

Subjective beliefs and economic preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic

Experimental Economics - The COVID-19 pandemic presents a remarkable opportunity to put to work all of the research that has been undertaken in past decades on the elicitation and structural...     

Project management infrastructure: The key to operational performance improvement

Process improvement programs such as Six Sigma, Lean, and Lean Sigma are very important and deserve serious academic research attention. However, definition problems make it difficult to study any specific type of process improvement program. Therefore, this study defines two organizational level program management factors, Strategic Project Selection (SPS) and Project Management Infrastructure (PMI), that are independent of any specific process improvement program. Drawing upon current literature, this study develops and tests theoretical models that relate SPS and PMI to operational performance improvement and to each other. Using empirical data collected from 53 supplier plants of one large high-tech firm, this study finds that at the plant level, SPS mediates the relationship between PMI and operational performance improvement. This insight contributes to both theory development and practice, suggesting that a viable strategy for a process improvement program’s success is to focus on PMI in order to enhance SPS and ultimately improve performance. Not to be reproduced or quoted without written permission from the authors.     

Corporate ownership and control structures: An international comparison

This paper analyzes the economic fundamentals of the corporate firm with publicly held shares and the salient characteristics of varying corporate systems, focusing on international differences in ownership and control structures, including alternative disciplinary mechanisms. Those international differences seem to influence economic behavior and corporate performance, including the way in which corporate restructurings take place. Market-oriented corporate systems and network-oriented corporate systems are likely to mutually converge in the future.     

Enhancing mental models,analogical transfer,and performance in strategic decision making

Recent research suggests that managers often make strategic decisions in novel situations by utilizing past experiences to reason by analogy. However, there is substantial evidence that decision makers often fail to identify and apply knowledge about one situation to a similarly structured situation. Two experimental studies investigated the mechanisms impacting knowledge transfer from one managerial situation (the source) to an analogous situation. The results show that exposure to variation in the source situation improves transfer performance. Variation decreases performance in the short term but improves learning and increases analogical transfer. Higher performance on and systematic search of the source situation also increase transfer performance. These results yield important implications for enhancing analogical transfer in strategic decision making and for future research on reasoning by analogy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Loan Loss Severity and Optimal Mortgage Default

This paper tests the contingent claims model of mortgage default in its ruthless or frictionless form. The principal tests of the model are based on an unconventional source of data, namely, loan loss severities on defaulted mortgages. The frictionless model has well-defined predictions about loss severities which we test in detail. The data analyzed include a random sample of all mortgages originated during the period 1975–90 and purchased by Freddie Mac, as well as the loss severities on all mortgages purchased by Freddie Mac which defaulted during the period. The frictionless model does not do well in these tests.     

The establishment-size wage premium: evidence from European countries

This study examines the magnitude and determinants of the establishment-size wage premium in five European countries using a unique harmonised matched employer–employee data set (the 1995 European Structure of Earnings Survey). This data set enables to test the validity of various traditional explanations of the size wage gap (i.e. the labour quality hypothesis, the theory of compensating wage differentials, the role of monitoring and institutions) and of more recent hypotheses (i.e. size differences in job stability and in the concentration of skilled workers). We find some support for traditional explanations, but there remains a significant wage premium for workers employed in large establishments. Further results indicate that the magnitude of this premium fluctuates substantially across countries and appears to be negatively correlated with the degree of corporatism.     

U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles,Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency

This paper studies U.S. house prices across 45 metropolitan areas from 1980 to 2012. It applies a version of the Gordon dividend discount model for long‐run “fundamentals” and uses Mean Group and Pooled Mean Group estimation to estimate long‐run and short‐run determinants of house prices. We find great similarity across cities in that the long‐run house prices are largely explained by the same fundamentals; the long‐run rent to price ratio is approximately 5% plus 0.75 times the real interest rate (which is on the order of 2%). However, adjustments to deviations from the fundamentals are slow, in the long‐run, closing the gap at a rate of around 10% per year. We find sharp differences in short‐run adjustments (momentum) away from the fundamentals across cities, and the differences are correlated with local supply elasticities (more momentum with lower elasticity). Analysis of residuals suggests strong cyclical deviations, which are mean‐reverting.     

Adaptive model-based seasonal adjustment of time series: An Empirical Comparison with XII-ARIMA and SIGEX

Several model-based approaches have been proposed in recent years for adjusting and decomposing time series data. Using real world data, this paper presents results of a large scale empirical comparison of the XII-ARIMA and SIGEX procedures to DESAEP, a new adaptive model-based method that combines stochastic and deterministic effects. The comparison reveals no substantial inconsistencies in seasonally adjusted values produced by the 3 methods. As for the magnitude in revisions in both concurrent and forecasted seasonally adjusted values, an overall reduction by a factor of 2 to 3 was obtained with DESAEP depending on the level of variability in the data.     

Erratic strategic decisions: when and why managers are inconsistent in strategic decision making

While decision makers in organizations frequently make good decisions rooted in stable and consistent preferences, such consistency in outcomes is not always the case. In this study, we adopt a psychological perspective of judgment to investigate managers' erratic strategic decisions, which we define as a manager's inconsistent judgments that can shape the direction of the firm. In a study of 2,048 decisions made by 64 CEOs of technology firms, we examine how both metacognitive experience and perceptions of the external environment (hostility and dynamism) could affect the extent to which managers make erratic strategic decisions. The results indicate that managers with greater metacognitive experience make less erratic strategic decisions. The results also indicate that in hostile environments managers make more erratic strategic decisions. But contrary to our expectations, in dynamic environments managers make less erratic strategic decisions. Similarly, hostility and dynamism interact in their effect on erratic strategic decisions in that the positive relationship between environmental hostility and erratic strategic decisions will be less positive for managers experiencing high environmental dynamism than those experiencing low environmental dynamism. These results have important implications for strategic decision‐making research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.