What you don't know about making decisions

Most executives think of decision making as a singular event that occurs at a particular point in time. In reality, though, decision making is a process fraught with power plays, politics, personal nuances, and institutional history. Leaders who recognize this make far better decisions than those who persevere in the fantasy that decisions are events they alone control. That said, some decision-making processes are far more effective than others. Most often, participants use an advocacy process, possibly the least productive way to get things done. They view decision making as a contest, arguing passionately for their preferred solutions, presenting information selectively, withholding relevant conflicting data so they can make a convincing case, and standing firm against opposition. Much more powerful is an inquiry process, in which people consider a variety of options and work together to discover the best solution. Moving from advocacy to inquiry requires careful attention to three critical factors: fostering constructive, rather than personal, conflict; making sure everyone knows that their viewpoints are given serious consideration even if they are not ultimately accepted; and knowing when to bring deliberations to a close. The authors discuss in detail strategies for moving from an advocacy to an inquiry process, as well as for fostering productive conflict, true consideration, and timely closure. And they offer a framework for assessing the effectiveness of your process while you're still in the middle of it. Decision making is a job that lies at the very heart of leadership and one that requires a genius for balance: the ability to embrace the divergence that may characterize early discussions and to forge the unity needed for effective implementation.     

Trade Policies for Exporting Industries under Free Entry

This paper computes optimal export taxes and domestic production subsidies for exporting industries under free entry. We show that domestic welfare is not at maximum, as is typically believed, when the export price is a monopoly price, and the domestic price is a competitive price, because a market structure effect has to be taken into account. Furthermore, we show that the optimal tax/subsidy formulas for an oligopoly coincide with those under perfect competition, if foreign and domestic demand functions are both linear. We also discuss optimal trade policies when only one instrument is available, and we run numerical simulations to determine and compare optimal trade taxes under endogenous and exogenous market structures.     

A Forecasting Model for Stock Market Diversity

We apply the recently introduced generalized tree-structured (GTS) model to the analysis and forecast of stock market diversity. Diversity is a measure of capital concentration across a market that plays a central role in the search for arbitrage. The GTS model allows for different conditional mean and volatility regimes that are directly related to the behavior of macroeconomic fundamentals through a binary threshold construction. Testing on US market data, we collect empirical evidence of the model’s strong potential in estimating and forecasting diversity accurately in comparison with other standard approaches. In addition, the GTS model allows for the construction of very simple portfolio strategies that systematically beat the standard cap-weighted S&P500 index. Financial support by the Foundation for Research and Development of the University of Lugano and by the National Centre of Competence in Research “Financial Valuation and Risk Management” (NCCR FINRISK) is gratefully acknowledged. The authors thank four anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

Environmental and Social Accounting for Brazil

An environmentally extendedSocial Accounting Matrix (SAM) has beenconstructed for Brazil for the first time. Wereview in detail previous studies in thisfield, describe the construction, structure anddata sources of the Brazilian SAM, anddemonstrate the effect of system closure.Examining a range of type-I and type-IImultipliers, we show that incomes generated byfinal consumption are highly skewed towardsrich households, but energy requirements andcarbon emissions are higher for the consumptionof the poor. A significant negative correlationexists between employment and income on onehand, and energy requirements and carbonemissions on the other, while a significantpositive correlation exists between imports,and energy and carbon. These correlationsdemonstrate that there is scope for policiesthat pursue imports substitution and reduceenergy consumption and carbon emissions whilstincreasing employment and income.     

Knowledge and economic behaviour. A constructivist approach

The knowledge of human knowledge claims a place of its own in economics. Beyond the walls of our discipline, spectacular progress is taking place in the field of empirical research into human knowledge -the so-called “cognitive sciences”. In the light of such advances, the old and new classicals' axiom that nothing scientific can be said beyond the axioms of substantive rationality now looks very much like the protective belt of a degenerating programme. On the other hand, criticisms and alternative programmes will hardly be effective so long as their arguments are purely negative or are drawn from armchair introspection. In the present study I wish to outline a pattern of human knowledge emerging from cognitive research that may be called “constructivist”, and to point out the restrictions it sets on economic analysis. It is also my argument that such a pattern is consistent with the present non- or post-Walrasian trends in economic theory, and that it may provide them with firmer cognitive foundations.     

Exploitation,skills, and inequality

Abstract

This paper uses a computational framework to analyse the equilibrium dynamics of exploitation and inequality in accumulation economies with heterogeneous labour. A novel index is presented which measures the intensity of exploitation at the individual level and the dynamics of the distribution of exploitation intensity is analysed. Various taxation schemes are analysed which may reduce exploitation or inequalities in income and wealth. It is shown that relatively small taxation rates may have significant cumulative effects on wealth and income inequalities. Further, taxation schemes that eliminate exploitation also reduce disparities in income and wealth but in the presence of heterogeneous skills, do not necessarily eliminate them. The inegalitarian effects of different abilities need to be tackled with a progressive education policy that compensates for unfavourable circumstances.     

The quest for a fiscal rule: Italy, 1861–1998

The Italian fiscal history is characterised by a number of fiscal consolidations. In this study, we characterise fiscal policy in terms of non-linear deterministic processes. We find that government spending and taxes can be described as being non-linear trend stationary processes instead of unit roots. A long run equilibrium relationship—a non-linear co-trend—does exist between the two series, fulfilling the intertemporal government budget constraint. We interpret this result as evidence of a long run fiscal rule that different policy makers have adopted, putting public finance in balance.

Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change - a rejoinder

[Ackermann, F., Stanton, E., 2008-this issue. A comment on economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: human health. Ecological Economics. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.10.006] criticise our recent paper [Bosello, F., Roson, R., Tol, R.S.J., 2006. Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: human health. Ecological Economics 58, 579-591] on different levels, calling it “mistaken” and “misleading”. We welcome the opportunity to respond. The critique of [Ackermann, F., Stanton, E., 2008-this issue. A comment on economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: human health. Ecological Economics. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.10.006] is either misdirected or incorrect.     

Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. This allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates; and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, general equilibrium effects increase the welfare costs of sea level rise, but not necessarily in every sector or region. In the absence of coastal protection, economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest. Although energy is substituted for land, overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy, hurting energy exporters. With full coastal protection, GDP increases, particularly in regions with substantial dike building, but utility falls, least in regions that protect their coasts and export energy. Energy prices rise and energy consumption falls. The costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land. The results also show direct costs – the usual method for estimating welfare changes due to sea level rise – are a bad approximation of the general equilibrium welfare effects; previous estimates of the economic impact of sea level rise are therefore biased.      

An Empirical Analysis of Tijuana Water Consumption

This paper examines time series characteristics of water consumption in Tijuana, a large manufacturing center and port city located in Northwestern Mexico. Home to more than 700 maquiladora assembly plants, it is one of the fastest growing metropolitan economies in Mexico. That growth places intense demands on the municipal water grid. Because it is located in a semi-arid region, Tijuana also faces supply constraints. Given the nature of the problems faced by water authorities, this research uses time series econometric techniques to analyze monthly information on grid hook-ups and per meter water consumption. Empirical estimation results are fairly satisfactory. Out-of-sample simulation results are mixed and indicate that care should be used if these equations are employed for planning purposes. Lag structures in the equations do, however, suggest several policy implications with respect to drought surcharges and rate hikes.