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91.
This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs?. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, improving forecasting performance substantially. The results support the third-generation models of currency crises and can assist policymakers on the design of surveillance strategies tailored for heterogeneous levels of risk tolerance and country specificities. 相似文献
92.
Silvia Figini Roberto Savona Marika Vezzoli 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》2016,23(1-2):6-20
Focusing on credit risk modelling, this paper introduces a novel approach for ensemble modelling based on a normative linear pooling. Models are first classified as dominant and competitive, and the pooling is run using the competitive models only. Numerical experiments based on parametric (logit, Bayesian model averaging) and nonparametric (classification tree, random forest, bagging, boosting) model comparison shows that the proposed ensemble performs better than alternative approaches, in particular when different modelling cultures are mixed together (logit and classification tree). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
93.
Planned Flexibility: Linking Anticipation and Reaction in Product Development Projects 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Roberto Verganti 《Journal of Product Innovation Management》1999,16(4):363-376
The early phases of a product development project (i.e., concept generation and product planning) are commonly acknowledged to play a central role in the success of product innovation. Early decisions are unlikely to be changed during downstream phases, unless high costs and time are experienced. They have therefore the highest influence on project performance. However, early analysis and problem solving is also a difficult task, because the necessary information and insights are not available until one gets into detailed design. Most companies are locked in this dilemma between anticipation (i.e., anticipating decisions in the early phases of product development, where influence on performance is substantial) and reaction (i.e., delaying decisions to downstream phases, where information and opportunities are manifest). This article investigates early development practices in 18 Italian and Swedish companies, operating in the vehicle, helicopter, and white-goods industries. It shows that neither anticipation nor reaction may be considered a best practice in absolute terms. Rather, it identifies four possible approaches to manage the early phases (detailed, selective, comprehensive, and postponed), where anticipation and reaction have different balances. In addition, the article shows how anticipation and reaction are not contradictory or mutually exclusive, but strongly interact with each other through a mechanism that we call planned flexibility, i.e., the capability to build flexibility into the development process due to decisions taken early in the project. 相似文献
94.
Feasible implementation of taxation methods 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper studies implementation of taxation methods in one-commodity environments in which the incomes of the agents are
unknown to the planner. Feasibility out of equilibrium imposes that the mechanism depend on the environment. We present two
mechanisms. The first one, which requires complete information, implements every taxation method in Nash, strong and coalition-proof
equilibrium. The second, where informational requirements are relaxed, implements a large class of consistent and monotone
methods in subgame perfect equilibrium. Neither mechanism employs the off-equilibrium devices used by the general theory.
Under fully private information no method is implementable.
Received: 12 March 1997 / Accepted: 21 July 1998 相似文献
95.
John M. Antle Bocar Diagana Jetse J. Stoorvogel Roberto O. Valdivia 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2010,54(4):601-617
Antle and Valdivia (2006, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 50, 1–15) proposed a minimum‐data (MD) approach to simulate ecosystem service supply curves that can be implemented using readily available secondary data and validated the approach in a case study of soil carbon sequestration in a monoculture wheat system. However, many applications of the MD approach are in developing countries where semi‐subsistence systems with multiple production activities are being used and data availability is limited. This paper discusses how MD analysis can be applied to more complex production systems such as semi‐subsistence systems with multiple production activities and presents validation analysis for studies of soil carbon sequestration in semi‐subsistence farming systems in Kenya and Senegal. Results from these two studies confirm that ecosystem service supply curves based on the MD approach are close approximations to the curves derived from highly detailed data and models and are therefore sufficiently accurate and robust to be used to support policy decision making. 相似文献
96.
We analyze the direction of the co‐movements of price and output in a monopolistic market when an expansive shock occurs. Price and quantity patterns are shown to depend on the consumers' income distribution. In particular, a low degree of income dispersion is associated with price and quantity reacting in opposite directions to demand shocks. 相似文献
97.
Fabio Bacchini Maria Elena Bontempi Roberto Golinelli Cecilia Jona-Lasinio 《Empirical Economics》2018,54(2):343-378
In this paper, we model the dynamics of business investment taking into account asset-specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of aggregate and disaggregate capital accumulation over the business cycle. We estimate Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and traditional investment (non-ICT) determinants within a Vector Error Correction Model testing the assumptions of the flexible accelerator and neoclassical model as well as the role of financial constraints and uncertainty. We evaluate our model on Italian data over the period 1980–2012, and we check our results also with Spanish and UK data. Our findings support the assumption that capital is heterogeneous since short- and long-run determinants are significantly different across the assets. Traditional assets experience stock adjustment costs while ICT investment incurs flow adjustment cost. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment independently of the asset type. In the long run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster economic growth. 相似文献
98.
99.
We exploit recently published data to evaluate the long-run evolution of overweight and obesity rates among European economies between 1975 and 2016. We find that overweight rates for both females and males converge in Europe. In particular, the convergence is driven by the nations in the EU. This fact is consistent with food patterns as well as trade, agricultural, and health policies that are common among EU members. Across our model specifications, the steady-state average overweight rate ranges between 60% and 77% for European female individuals and lies above 82% for their male counterparts. Confidence intervals suggest that such gender differences are statistically significant. In the EU, the point estimates of these rates are 62% and 91%, respectively. Obesity prevalence in Europe would reach long-term rates of 39% and 45% for females and males respectively, whereas these rates would be similar in the EU (approximately 28%). 相似文献
100.
Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models
The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of alternative forecasting methods to predict the index of industrial
production in Italy from 1 to 3 months ahead. We use twelve different models, from simple ARIMA to dynamic factor models exploiting
the timely information of up to 110 short-term indicators, both qualitative and quantitative. This allows to assess the relevance
for the forecasting practice of alternative combinations of types of data (real-time and latest available), estimation methods
and periods. Out-of-sample predictive ability tests stress the relevance of more indicators in disaggregate models over sample
periods covering a complete business cycle (about 7 years in Italy). Our findings downgrade the emphasis on both the estimation
method and data revision issues. In line with the classical “average puzzle”, the use of simple averages of alternative forecasts
often improves the predictive ability of their single components, mainly over short horizons. Finally, selected indicators
and factor-based models always perform significantly better than ARIMA models, suggesting that the short-run indicator signal
always dominates the noise component. On this regard, selected indicators models can further increase the amount of signal
extracted to improve up to 30–40% the short-run predictive ability of factor-based models and to forecast-encompass them. 相似文献