Misperceiving the value of information in predicting the performance of others

Economic models typically allow for “free disposal” or “reversibility” of information, which implies non-negative value. Building on previous research on the “curse of knowledge” we explore situations where this might not be so. In three experiments, we document situations in which participants place positive value on information in attempting to predict the performance of uninformed others, even when acquiring that information diminishes their earnings. In the first experiment, a majority of participants choose to hire informed—rather than uninformed—agents, leading to lower earnings. In the second experiment, a significant number of participants pay for information—the solution to a puzzle—that hurts their ability to predict how many others will solve the puzzle. In the third experiment, we find that the effect is reduced with experience and feedback on the actual performance to be predicted. We discuss implications of our results for the role of information and informed decision making in economic situations. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10683-006-9128-y. JEL Classification C91, D83     

Component efficient solutions in line-graph games with applications

Recently, applications of cooperative game theory to economic allocation problems have gained popularity. We investigate a class of cooperative games that generalizes some economic applications with a similar structure. These are the so-called line-graph games being cooperative TU-games in which the players are linearly ordered. Examples of situations that can be modeled like this are sequencing situations and water distribution problems. We define four properties with respect to deleting edges that each selects a unique component efficient solution on the class of line-graph games. We interpret these solutions and properties in terms of dividend distributions, and apply them to economic situations. This research has been done while the third author was visiting Tinbergen Institute at the Free University, Amsterdam. The research is part of the Research Programme “Strategic and Cooperative Decision Making” at the Department of Econometrics. Financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) in the framework of the Russian-Dutch programme for scientific cooperation, is gratefully acknowledged. The third author also appreciates partial financial support from the Russian Leading Scientific Schools Fund (grant 80.2003.6) and Russian Humanitarian Scientific Fund (grant 02-02-00189a). We thank three anonymous referees for their valuable comments.     

Environmental regulatory enforcement with “green” consumers

We consider a standard probabilistic model of random monitoring to analyze the interactions between a firm and a monitoring agency in the presence of “green” consumers when compliance payoffs are contingent on monitoring and monitoring costs are shared by the monitoring agency and the firm. When the amount paid by the firms if monitored is exogenously fixed, we find that full compliance is implemented with a finite fine. If there is an upper bound for the fine and the regulator determines endogenously the fine and the amount paid by the firms if monitored, we find that full compliance is also achieved, although the optimal fine is now set at its maximum level. The optimal amount paid by the firms if monitored is lower than the environmental premium the compliant firm gets.The author thanks two anonymous referees for their useful comments and suggestions     

关于中国与OECD国家购买力平价比较研究结果及其评价

本文分析了中国购买力平价研究的背景,简要介绍了购买力平价测算的基本方法。在国家统计局以部分城市参加OECD1999年一轮购买力平价项目试验性合作研究的基础上,应用国际通用的方法,测算了1999年中国与OECD国家购买力平价比较的结果,即1美元=4.67元人民币,相当于当年汇率的57%;同时,介绍了国内外关于中国购买力平价研究的主要结果,分析它们之间存在差异的原因。通过对比分析认为,本研究结果基本合理,反映中国购买力平价研究的共同趋势。     

中部崛起的区域创新战略与政策研究

对目前普遍认同的3种中部崛起的战略途径进行了分析和评述,指出了各自的局限性。根据后发优势理论提出了中部崛起的区域创新战略,并探讨了中部区域创新战略的结构体系和基本内涵,明确了其对中部崛起的重要现实意义。随后从4个方面阐述了中部区域创新战略的发展思路,并针对目前中部地区科技与经济发展的情况,提出了相关的政策建议。     

西部经济和生态环境互动模式:产业互动视角的分析

西部地区生态环境的脆弱性决定了西部地区在工业化过程中不能走"先污染、后治理"的发展模式,而应该强化经济与生态环境的互动发展.产业互动是经济与生态环境互动发展的重要组成部分,产业互动的思路是按循环经济的理念推进产业结构优化,依据比较优势原则发展西部特色产业作为依托点,以建立生态工业园作为产业互动的新载体.     

高新技术企业的价值形成与评估特性

科技的发展使知识成为企业价值的最重要的财富,高新技术企业的迅速崛起是时代的必然,这使得高新技术企业备受关注。本文通过高新技术企业与传统企业的对比,总结出高新技术企业的评估特性,从而提出高新技术企业的价值可以反映为“两个阶段———即前几年高速增长期的价值和高速增长期后的稳定增长期的价值(又称连续价值)之和”的结论。     

区域经济一体化快速发展的经济学分析

近年来区域经济一体化组织得到迅猛发展:欧盟东扩的成功;亚太经合组织合作紧密化;中国—东盟自由贸易区的发展等等。为何许多国家正在加快经济一体化的步伐?经济一体化到底会给成员国经济带来哪些影响?文章旨在运用经济学的方法研究经济一体化快速发展的根本原因。     

掠过浮华,国美离『中国的沃尔玛』还有多远?

2004年,国美对外宣称“到2008年,国美的销售额要达到1200亿元左右.”而当年其销售额是238.8亿元.     

Nonparametric estimation of stochastic volatility models

This letter introduces nonparametric estimators of the drift and diffusion coefficient of stochastic volatility models which exploit techniques for estimating integrated volatility with high-frequency data. The performance of the proposed estimators is assessed on simulations of two popular stochastic volatility models.