Why economic sanctions always fail — the case of Rhodesia

Demands for the imposition of economic sanctions under UN auspices on South Africa have been voiced for quite some time. Rhodesia was the first country ever to be subjected to a full obligatory embargo by the UN Security Council. An analysis of the embargo against Rhodesia will therefore help to answer the question whether an embargo on South Africa stands a chance of success.     

TESTING FOR STATIONARITY WITH A BREAK IN PANELS WHERE THE TIME DIMENSION IS FINITE

In this paper, we consider the case of finite time dimension in the panel stationarity tests with structural breaks. By fixing T, the finite sample properties of the tests for both micro (T small and N large) and macro (both T and N large) panel data are generally greatly improved. More importantly, the derivation of the tests for finite T and , as opposed to joint asymptotic where N and simultaneously, avoids the imposition of the rate condition making the test valid for any (T, N) blend. Four models corresponding to the usual combination of breaks are considered. The asymptotic distributions of the test are derived under the null hypothesis and are shown to be normally distributed. Their moments for T fixed are derived analytically employing Ghazal’s corollary 1. The case with unknown breaks is also considered. The proposed tests have generally empirical sizes that are very close to the nominal size. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the power of the test statistics increases substantially with N and T.     

The Halle Economic Projection Model

In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model—the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM)—is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov et al. (2008a,b,c). Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In doing so, we consider Germany, France, and Italy which represent together about 70% of Euro area GDP. The model combines core equations of the New-Keynesian standard DSGE model with empirically useful ad-hoc equations. We estimate this model using Bayesian techniques and evaluate the forecasting properties. Additionally, we provide an impulse response analysis and historical shock decomposition.     

Trade in variety and domestic production: Evidence from US manufacturing

Welfare gains from increasing product variety are an important source of the gains from international trade. Previous empirical studies, however, typically focus on measuring gains from imported varieties. This paper introduces a measure to analyze changes in domestically produced varieties to estimate the total variety gains. Our analysis suggests that, for US manufacturing, losses in domestic varieties from 1992 to 2006 seem substantial given the large decline in the number of US establishments. Yet, once we account for the reallocation of resources towards large multi‐variety firms, we find considerable domestic variety gains, adding to those from imported varieties.     

OPEC's Response to International Climate Agreements

This paper studies a game between a group of countries that have agreed to participate in an international climate agreement (the signatories) and OPEC. The purpose of the signatories is to design carbon taxes that maximize their total net income, given a goal on global carbon emissions. As a response to the climate agreement, OPEC imposes an oil tax on its member states that maximizes OPEC's profits. Within a numerical model we find the subgame-perfect equilibrium of a game in which each player chooses when to fix his decision variables. It is shown that in equilibrium the group of signatories chooses to be the leader and OPEC chooses to be the follower. It is demonstrated, however, that for both agents the order of move is of minor (numerical) importance. Hence, the players have limited incentives for strategic behaviour.     

Beyond environmental management—Perspectives on environmental and management research

In a recent article Richard Welford encouraged discussions about the status and future of environmentally related organization and management-research. The following contribution is an attempt to take up some of the challenges that our field faces. The purpose is to analyse the relationship between, on the one hand, a growing flora of environmental efforts and environmental solutions and, on the other hand, a management research that is developing on its own terms. The author's basic premise is that these two need to move closer to each other. A number of theses are also presented. The author's basic thesis is that organization and management theory does not need yet another new special subject; rather, it is environmental research that needs to more seriously include relevant management research. The second thesis is that there are no objective environmental problems (as most environmental researchers maintain), but that environmental problems are social constructions. The paper finishes with a number of conclusions in favour of a management focused environmental research, that is guided by an intention of ‘soft interventions’. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.