A dismal science; An essay on new classical economics

Summary Does new classical economics constitute a scientific achievement? Are its basic concepts demonstrably appropriate representations of fundamental characteristics of economic reality? An inspection of the relevant models shows that this is not the case. There exists hardly any empirical evidence which can be interpreted as foundational for the concepts employed in new classical microeconomics. It is more accurate to view the latter as mathematically convenient constructions which yield desired results - which often means: results that seem to be relevant for policy making. Finally, the new classical approach to macroeconomics appears to originate in substantial confusions about the nature of this subject.I am grateful to Pieter Stobbe for long and frequent discussions about economic theory which have helped to shape the views I put forward in this article. I should also like to thank Jan Marc Berk who provided research assistance. I alone am responsible for what follows.     

On Blending Competitive Trade Models

Three standard models typically discussed in the theory of international trade are the Ricardian model, the Heckscher‐Ohlin model and the Specific‐Factors model. Models are often compared with each other, in an attempt to analyze which model is best or fits reality better. Instead, I suggest that these international trade models can often be blended to take account of finite changes when, as a country develops, the appropriate model to be used changes as the pattern of production changes. Trade allows countries to produce fewer commodities than it consumes, and which commodities are selected to be produced may change as the economy grows in the size of its endowment bundle and/or technology changes. At issue is not only the question of which commodities are produced, but also how many commodities are produced, especially with reference to the number of productive factors.     

Is the EU ETS a Just Climate Policy?

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is in dire straits. Prone to design problems and suffering from the effects of the economic crises the scheme is criticised for its poor achievements. In this paper we will analyse some of the features of this situation from an ethical perspective. The major part is dedicated to the complications within each phase of the EU ETS and to the recent developments it has undergone. We will briefly discuss the remedies suggested by prominent commentators. Furthermore, any policy tool to tackle climate change should be evaluated in view of the profound equity issues that are inherent to the climate problem. We will evaluate the EU ETS according to two justice-based criteria, related to effectiveness and the distribution of the duties involved in climate change, respectively. We will conclude that the EU ETS, in its current form, clearly lacks fairness on both criteria. However, the biggest problem is the unwillingness of EU leaders to mend, what could be, a commendable climate policy tool. To that extent, we argue, those leaders are acting unjustly.     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

The influence of consumer decision‐making styles on online apparel consumption by college students

Apparel purchases now constitute one of the fastest‐growing segments of e‐commerce. Thus, there are strong theoretical and managerial reasons to better understand consumer characteristics associated with buying apparel online. This paper investigates motivations for online apparel consumption using the Consumer Styles Inventory. Data from a sample of 357 US college students showed that quality consciousness, brand consciousness, fashion consciousness, hedonistic shopping, impulsiveness and brand loyalty were positively correlated with online apparel shopping. Price sensitivity was negatively correlated with online spending.     

Trembles in extensive games with ambiguity averse players

We introduce and analyze three definitions of equilibrium for finite extensive games with imperfect information and ambiguity averse players. In a setting where players’ preferences are represented by maxmin expected utility, as characterized in Gilboa and Schmeidler (J Math Econ 18(2):141–153, 1989), our definitions capture the intuition that players may consider the possibility of slight arbitrary mistakes. This generalizes the idea leading to trembling-hand perfect equilibrium as introduced in Selten (Int J Game Theory 4(1):25–55, 1975), by allowing for ambiguous trembles characterized by sets of distributions. We prove existence for two of our equilibrium notions and relate our definitions to standard equilibrium concepts with expected utility maximizing players. Our analysis shows that ambiguity aversion can lead to behavioral implications that are distinct from those attained under expected utility maximization, even if ambiguous beliefs only arise from the possibility of slight mistakes in the implementation of unambiguous strategies.     

Improving the Effect of Guarantees: The Role of a Retailer's Reputation

This research examines the interaction of two cues, retailer reputation and guarantees on evaluations. Extending Mandler's (1982) incongruity framework, we illustrate across three studies how moderately incongruent signals can be combined to enhance evaluations. Unique to our application of moderate incongruity, however, is the fact that guarantee cues can be incongruent with the retailer's reputation, in terms of domain (e.g., price matching guarantee (PMG) offered by provider whose reputation is based on service, not pricing) or valence (e.g., PMG offered by retailer known for carrying expensive merchandize). This dual perspective on the source of incongruity (domain or valence) is important and highlights when guarantees enhance evaluations.