Managing The Volatility Of Gaap Earnings

Abstract

The adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 97 (SFAS 97) eliminated the “lock-in” concept introduced in SFAS 60. Since many of the actuarial assumptions used in the calculation of the deferred acquisition cost (DAC) asset are difficult to predict over an extended period of time, “dynamic unlocking” was a sensible solution. Although this “dynamic unlocking” keeps the assumptions in line with recent experience, it comes at a cost—increased volatility of GAAP earnings. Some of the causes of this volatility are warranted since it accentuates the effects on earnings due to certain changes in the underlying experience. Other causes of this volatility may be unwarranted because of a misapplication of the principles underlying SFAS 97 and SFAS 120 or the manner in which changes in experience were reflected. In addition, most analysts expect the amortization of deferred acquisition costs to increase when earnings are better than expected. Conversely, analysts expect the amortization of deferred acquisition costs to decrease when earnings are worse than expected. Often the amortization of deferred acquisition costs behaves in a manner contrary to their expectations. This article analyzes what causes this volatility, explains why the amortization can behave contrary to expectations, and suggests several techniques for minimizing these unwarranted results.     

The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes

We study the impact of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle expansion and recession regimes using analytical, simulation and empirical methods. Analytically, we show that the X‐11 adjustment filter both reduces the magnitude of change at turning points and reduces the depth of recessions, with specific effects depending on the length of the recession. A Monte Carlo analysis using Markov‐switching models confirms these properties, with particularly undesirable effects in delaying the recognition of the end of a recession. However, seasonal adjustment can help to clarify the true regime when this is well underway. These results continue to hold when a seasonally non‐stationary process with regime‐dependent mean is misspecified as one with deterministic seasonal effects. The empirical findings, based on four coincident US business cycle indicators, reinforce the analytical and simulation results by showing that seasonal adjustment leads to the identification of longer and shallower recessions than obtained using unadjusted data. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equilibrium and quasi-equilibrium existence theorems for a general model without ordered preferences

In previous papers Gale and Mas-Colell (1975) and later Florenzano (1981) obtained a fixed point theorem. Gale and Mas-Colell proved also an existence equilibrium theorem. In this paper I offer a more general fixed point theorem that embodies as special cases the above mentionaed results. The new fixed point theorem is used as a main result in obtaining a general equilibrium theorem in weaker conditions than those of the previous proofs.     

Ethical Character and Virtue of Organizations: An Empirical Assessment and Strategic Implications

Virtue ethics has often been regarded as complementary or laissez-faire ethics in solving business problems. This paper seeks conceptual and methodological improvements by developing a virtue character scale that will enable assessment of the link between organizational level virtue and organizational performance, financial or non-financial. Based upon three theoretical assumptions, multiple studies were conducted; the content analysis of 158 Fortune Global 500 firms ethical values and a survey of 2548 customers and employees. Six dimensions of organizational virtue (Integrity, Empathy, Warmth, Courage, Conscientiousness and Zeal) are identified through confirmatory factor analysis, and validated against satisfaction measure. Strategic implications of virtue characters are discussed.     

Price assessments by consumers: influence of purchase context and price structure

Among the numerous factors that influence decisions on prices, consumer behaviour has special significance. This paper reviews and analyses relevant studies conducted during the last few decades. On the basis of our analysis, four categories of factors that determine consumer behaviour have been identified. Additionally, we have developed an experimental research design to analyse the influence that the following factors have on price perception: price structure (i.e. price level, order of presentation and price differences), purchase context (i.e. reason for purchase or product use) and demographic characteristics (i.e. gender). Results reveal a significant influence of these variables on consumer behaviour.     

Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys

Measures of households' past behavior, their expectations with respect to future events and contingencies, and their intentions with respect to future behavior are frequently collected using household surveys. These questions are conceptually difficult. Answering them requires elaborate cognitive and social processes, and often respondents report only their “best” guesses and/or estimates, using more or less sophisticated heuristics. A large body of literature in psychology and survey research shows that as a result, responses to such questions may be severely biased. In this paper, (1) we describe some of the problems that are typically encountered, (2) provide some empirical illustrations of these biases, and (3) develop a framework for conceptualizing survey response behavior and for integrating structural models of response behavior into the statistical analysis of the underlying economic behavior.     

Words that shake traders : The stock market's reaction to central bank communication in real time

This paper investigates the effects of Federal Reserve's decisions and statements on U.S. stock and volatility indices (Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and VIX) using a high-frequency event-study analysis. I find that both the surprise component of policy actions and official communication have statistically significant and economically relevant effects on equity indices, with statements having a much greater explanatory power of the reaction of stock prices to monetary policy. For instance, around 90% of the explainable variation in S&P 500 is due to the surprise component of Fed's statements. This paper also shows that equity indices tend to incorporate FOMC monetary surprises within 40 min from the announcement release. Finally, I find that these results are robust along several dimensions. In particular, I consider different estimators, such as the Generalized Empirical Likelihood, and I extend the sample to include the recent period of heightened financial stress. This sensitivity analysis corroborates that central bank communication about its future policy intentions is a key driver of stock returns.     

Alcohol abuse among adolescents: regional evidence from Spain

The aim of this paper is to offer regional evidence from Spain on alcohol abuse among adolescents. Specifically, we identify the determinants of the decision to abuse alcohol with respect to the five most important regions of Spain, as well as for the country as a whole. To this end, we estimate Probit specifications using data drawn from the Spanish Surveys on Drug Use in the School Population corresponding to 1994, 1996 and 1998. The results first reveal patterns that are qualitatively similar, but quantitatively different. Similarly, it would appear that economic policies aimed at reducing the access of adolescents to alcohol may have a positive effect on reducing abuse. Finally, the results suggest that encouragement be given to healthy habits among young people, as well as to the fight against education failure and the launching of information campaigns that accurately portray the current lifestyle of adolescents.     

The influence of corporate character on customers and employees: Exploring similarities and differences

Should the same corporate brand imagery appeal to both internal and external stakeholders? The authors explored similarities and differences in how the dimensions of corporate character affect the satisfaction and perceived differentiation of customers and employees of two successful retail organizations. Using multigroup structural equation modeling of survey data (N=1,252), the authors found significant differences on two dimensions: enterprise and competence. Enterprise (e.g., imaginative, innovative) was positively associated with customer satisfaction, had no significant impact on employee satisfaction, and was negatively associated with employee perceived differentiation. Competence (reliable, leading) was positively associated with employee perceived differentiation but had no impact on customer perceived differentiation. The influence of chic (stylish, prestigious) was similar for both customer and employee satisfaction and differentiation. This analysis shows how certain dimensions of corporate character can be usefully promoted to both customers and employees, while other dimensions would benefit from a stakeholder-specific approach.