Lisbon, Europe 2020, and the case for soft coordination in EU policymaking

Positive spillovers from structural and other reforms figure among the key reasons for the Lisbon and the Europe 2020 Strategies. This paper investigates the theoretical and empirical evidence for such spillovers and shows that the need for coordination in some policy areas is less evident than commonly assumed, whereas in others a lack of coordination is at the root of persistent economic imbalances.     

Testing the local volatility assumption: a statistical approach

In practice, the choice of using a local volatility model or a stochastic volatility model is made according to their respective ability to fit implied volatility surfaces. In this paper, we adopt a different point of view. Indeed, using a purely statistical methodology, we design new procedures aiming at testing the assumption of a local volatility model for the price dynamics, against the alternative of a stochastic volatility model. These test procedures are based only on historical data and do not require any calibration procedures via option prices. We also provide a convincing simulation study and an empirical analysis on future contracts on interest rates.     

A new microstructure noise index

We introduce a new microstructure noise index for financial data. This index, the computation of which is based on the p-variations of the considered asset or rate at different time scales, can be interpreted in terms of Besov smoothness spaces. We study the behavior of our new index using empirical data. It gives rise to phenomena that a classical signature plot is unable to detect. In particular, with our data set, it enables us to separate the sampling frequencies into three zones: no microstructure noise for low frequencies, increasing microstructure noise from low to high frequencies, and some kind of additional regularity on the finest scales. We then investigate the index from a theoretical point of view, under various contexts of microstructure noise, trying to reproduce the facts observed on the data. We show that this can be partially done using models involving additive correlated errors or rounding error. Accurate reproduction seems to require either both kinds of error together or some unusual form of rounding error.     

CooperationV. Rivalry and factors facilitating collusion

A perennial topic in industrial economics is collusion. Kwoka and Ravenscraft (1986) developed a model to measure the collusiveness of conjectures across industries as a function of intra-industry rivalry among leading firms. But extensive literature suggests that the degree of collusion may also depend upon underlying market characteristics. We modify the Kwoka and Ravenscraft model to account for this. Our results suggest that underlying market characteristics do matter. Intra-industry rivalry and conjectures vary with the level and stability of concentration, and to a lesser degree with product homogeneity.     

Price discrimination and economics journals

An analysis of pricing by economics journal publishers shows that most publishers initially charge libraries and individual subscribers the same price. Over time, however, almost all eventually engage in price discrimination. The few publishers that never price-discriminate seem to be purchasing an explicit non-profit-maximizing pricing strategy. Once discrimination occurs, library prices rise faster than individual subscriber prices. These results are consistent with theoretical predictions.