Investing in mutual funds when returns are predictable

This paper forms investment strategies in US domestic equity mutual funds, incorporating predictability in (i) manager skills, (ii) fund risk loadings, and (iii) benchmark returns. We find predictability in manager skills to be the dominant source of investment profitability—long-only strategies that incorporate such predictability outperform their Fama-French and momentum benchmarks by 2 to 4%/year by timing industries over the business cycle, and by an additional 3 to 6%/year by choosing funds that outperform their industry benchmarks. Our findings indicate that active management adds significant value, and that industries are important in locating outperforming mutual funds.     

通用存储之梦还在继续?

通用存储芯片正在不断演化中多年来,半导体产业耗费大量精力研究所谓的“通用”存储技术,这种技术能够在断电情况下保存数据,具有快速、廉价等优点,还兼具充足的存储密度等特性,能够替代统治如今近500亿美元存储市场的DRAM、SRAM和闪存等技术。     

Picking funds with confidence

We present a new approach to selecting actively managed mutual funds that uses both portfolio holdings and fund return information to eliminate funds with predicted inferior performance through a sequence of pairwise fund comparisons. Our methodology determines both the number of skilled funds and their identities, and locates funds with substantially higher risk-adjusted returns than those identified by conventional alpha-ranking methods. We find strong evidence of time-series variation in both the number of funds identified as superior using our approach, as well as in their performance across different economic states.     

Exchange rate volatility and first-time entry by multinational firms

The model and related empirical examination in this paper demonstrate one reason why previous studies document both positive and negative correlations between exchange rate volatility and observed levels of foreign direct investment. Using a simple model of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, it argues that the source of the volatility is important in resolving the puzzle. An empirical analysis of mergers and acquisitions by individual firms reveal that first-time foreign direct investment is discouraged by monetary volatility originating from the source-country, but can be encouraged by monetary volatility originating in the host country, especially when compared to domestic investment or expansion by existing multinationals. The regressions also reveal a large and positive “euro effect” on the number of first-time cross-border mergers within the European Monetary Union, even when controlling for domestic merger activity.     

Value Creation by Active Investors (and Its Potential for Addressing Social Problems)

A distinguished Columbia academic discusses the methods and outcomes of “active investing” with the co‐founder of a leading private equity firm and a former senior partner of a well‐known hedge fund. In the case studies used by both panelists to illustrate their investment selection and management processes, the investors provided not only capital, but oversight and expertise that helped bring about significant increases in the productivity and value of their portfolio companies. What's more, in both cases, the changes that contributed to high returns for investors also ended up having major benefits for the companies' non‐investor stakeholders, especially their consumers. In the first of the two cases, Paul Hilal explains the thinking behind Pershing Square's $1.1 billion purchase of 14% of the Canadian Pacific Railway in 2012. With the help of intensive “fundamental” analysis of the company, Hilal recognized that Canadian Pacific was substantially underperforming its rival, the Canadian National Railway, in a number of important ways. And when CP's management and board rejected his plan for changes, Hilal led a proxy battle that ended in a landslide victory for the proposed slate of directors, including Hilal himself. Then, after bringing in a new CEO, the restructured board presided over operating changes that, during Pershing's four‐year ownership, increased the market value of CP from $8 billion to $30 billion. By 2016, when Pershing sold its investment (for $4 billion), Canadian Pacific was “shipping 20% more freight … 40% faster than ever before, with record on‐time performance, 40% fewer locomotives, 35% fewer people, and 14% improved fuel efficiency—all while maintaining an industry‐leading safety record.” In the second case, Russ Carson describes the success of Welsh, Carson, Anderson, and Stowe in turning its purchase in 1998 of a single oncology practice in Denver into a publicly traded company with more than 90 outpatient cancer centers throughout the U.S. When it was sold in 2011, US Oncology was producing $4 billion in revenue while employing 1,000 oncologists, who, as significant equity owners, shared in the success of Welsh Carson. Using modern management techniques to create “enormous efficiencies out of an extraordinarily fragmented system,” Carson and his colleagues created “the single largest—and, by all accounts, most reputable—outpatient provider of cancer services in the country.” One of the keys to this success was “getting the doctors to spend their time seeing patients, not looking for records,” which contributed greatly to Welsh Carson's ability to improve “both the quantity and quality of cancer care in the 90 communities that we were operating in.”     

Analysis of embedded options in individual pension schemes in Germany

Newly introduced government-subsidized pension products in Germany are required to contain a promise by the seller to provide a “money-back guarantee” at the end of the term. The client is also given the right to stop paying premiums at any time (paid-up option). In this case, the amount of all premiums paid must also be guaranteed by the seller at maturity, no matter when the client stopped paying the premiums. Previous analyses of guarantees in such government-subsidized pension products have ignored this additional option. Within a generalized Black/Scholes framework, we analyze the value of the paid-up option for different products, market scenarios, and client behavior. Our results indicate that the paid-up option significantly increases the value of the money-back guarantee. Furthermore, we find that reducing volatility by shifting the client’s assets from stocks to bonds as maturity approaches is a suitable means of reducing the risk arising from the “pure” money-back guarantee but much less effective in reducing the risk arising from the paid-up option. JEL Classification G13 · G23 · G28     

The valuation implications of human capital in transactions on and outside the exchange

We examine the valuation implications of human capital both for a broad sample of firms and for subsamples of high-technology firms and low-technology firms. Our results suggest that the market appears to value compensation expenses not as expenses but as if they serve as a proxy for a human asset that is omitted from the balance sheets. The findings are consistent with human capital comprising a more sizable portion of the value of high-technology firms than of low-technology firms. The findings also indicate that compensation expenses are valued differently from other expense components of income. Markedly, despite critical differences between investors on the exchange and those buying shares in transactions outside the exchange (controlling interests, information asymmetry, etc.), their assessment of the enhanced value of a firm attributable to human capital is shown to be relatively similar. The results in this study are consistent with compensation expenses creating a valuable intangible asset, hence suggesting that reform in the accounting treatment of these expenses is of critical importance.     

Cause Related Marketing and Corporate Philanthropy in the Privately Held Enterprise

Owners of businesses represent an interesting case in the study of the intersection of personal and corporate philanthropic values. Because individuals who own businesses have the means and the ability to act on philanthropic motivations through the medium of their businesses, it is interesting to explore the extent to which their corporate contributions to nonprofits are philanthropic in nature or instrumentally motivated, as in the instance of cause related marketing. The trade-offs between cause related marketing and corporate support of nonprofits are complex. Although larger firms are increasing their investments in cause related marketing, the extent of and motivations for adoption of cause related marketing among privately held businesses is less well understood. This study of 478 businesses which are supporters of arts organizations shows that privately held businesses of medium size (300 to 500 employees) are participating in cause related marketing to a significant degree. The adoption rate of cause related marketing is about 40%, and the primary benefits sought are company image enhancement and product marketing support. Adoption of cause related marketing among privately held and smaller enterprises will grow as CEOs exhibit satisfaction with the results of their program, intend to engage in positive word of mouth about it, and plan to allocate more resources to it.     

Affective commitment within the public sector: antecedents and performance outcomes between ownership types

How to generate affective commitment and realize its performance potential is deemed critical to public management. But in the context of service outsourcing, does ownership type influence its antecedents and performance outcomes? Drawing on postal survey data for English leisure providers, we find training is an antecedent across public and private ownership types; performance appraisal is an antecedent for private ownership only; while performance-related pay carries an insignificant effect. Affective commitment holds business and customer performance outcomes for public ownership, but insignificant effects are observed for external ownership types. Implications of this contextual variation for public management theory are discussed.