Ratings and confirmation

We present a formalism which makes explicit and precise the confirming effect of multiple observers and repeated trials on composite ratings, considering the relevant subjective inputs.     

Latent Demand for Urban Housing in the People's Republic of China

A new micro-data set demonstrates that, in urban China, own-built dwellings are 75% larger than state-owned dwellings. A switching regression with endogenous switching demonstrates that families with less privileged positions in the Chinese economy are more likely to inhabit own-built housing. The relationships between family characteristics and dwelling sizes in the own-built and state-owned sectors differ dramatically. However, unobserved characteristics, probably includingguanxi, play crucial roles in both. Depending on these characteristics, families in state-owned dwellings might have two-thirds more living space were they to choose own-built dwellings.     

Analysis of arrest rates for trends in criminality

During the 1960s, the United States experienced a substantial increase in crime with the rates of reported crime more than doubling. It has been postulated that the increase in the proportion of young adults in the population which also occurred during the Sixties is a primary factor in the increase in crime. In this paper, we attempt to explore this question by partitioning the recent increases in rates between an increasing crime-committing propensity for various demographic groups on one hand, and a changing demographic mix to the other. We do this by analyzing arrest rates by demographic group over time. However, since arrest rates are a complex function of both criminality and police activity, a model is developed which attempts to distinguish between these phenomena. The model is estimated using data on age, race, and sex-specific arrest rates for Pittsburgh residents over the period 1967–1972. The results of the analysis suggest that there has been no significant increase in criminality for men in the Pittsburgh population, while there is some evidence of increased criminality for women. However, this increase may reflect an increased willingness of the police to arrest women. We hesitate to generalize our conclusions too widely from the experience of a single urban center. Additional analysis, using the model developed here, of arrest rates from other cities or regions would do much to illuminate this very significant issue.     

Export Composition and Manufacturing Employment in the US during the Economic Downturn of 1991-92

This paper examines the effect that export composition had upon manufacturing employment in the US during the 1991 recession. Although it takes, on average, approximately $66 000 in exports to create one job, the exact gains in terms of total employment depend upon the labour-intensity of the products being exported. Foreign sales by the chemical and textile industries result in a far greater increase in employment than exports by the petroleum refining or steel industries. This analysis estimates the employment effects of manufacturing exports over the 1989-95 period, utilizing an input-output model to capture both direct and indirect effects. The results demonstrate that export composition has, at times, both strengthened and reduced demand for labour. Consequently, if job-creation is a national goal, it may be in the interests of the US to promote exports from sectors that are labour-using.     

IMPLEMENTING A TRADE FACILITATION AGREEMENT IN THE WTO: WHAT MAKES SENSE?

Abstract.  In the Doha Round, trade facilitation is the negotiating issue in which the 'implementation issue' is most prominent. At the WTO (the Doha Development Agenda) the international community has approached the implementation problem as a challenge to restore mercantilist balance rather than as a need to build good economics into future agreements. The international community has taken on aggressively the development dimensions of trade facioitation through the development banks, bilateral aid agencies and other specialized institutions. Considerable funding has been provided. Though little progress has been made through WTO negotiations, the content of these development programs is supportive of development.     

Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.