Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data

Inflation expectations play a key role in determining future economic outcomes. The associated uncertainty provides a direct gauge of how well‐anchored the inflation expectations are. We construct a model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty by augmenting a standard unobserved components model of inflation with information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations obtained from financial markets. This new model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty is more accurately estimated and can provide valuable information for policymakers. Using U.S. data, we find significant changes in inflation expectations uncertainty during the Great Recession.     

Short Positions in the First Principal Component Portfolio

Insurance companies and pension plans typically hold well-diversified equity portfolios. These institutions are also often restricted from taking short positions. The diversification requirement operates on the portfolio level, while the short sale constraint is at the individual security level. We examine an investment strategy that exposes a tension between these two requirements. This strategy uses the first principal component to construct the portfolio and by design meets the first requirement. Empirical portfolios based on the first principal component do an excellent job of capturing market exposure and minimizing diversifiable risk. However, in practice such portfolios sometimes contain a few short positions. So this strategy does not always meet the second requirement. We examine which features of stock returns give rise to short positions when a portfolio is based on the first principal component, and we are able to identify the characteristics of the stocks that are responsible for the short positions. These stocks tend to have negative correlations with the majority of other stocks. In contrast such stocks would typically be held long in a Markowitz portfolio. We discuss and explain this puzzle.     

Do environmental regulations hamper small enterprises' market entry? Evidence from China

Due to the serious increase of environmental pollution in China, environmental regulations have become significantly stringent. Such regulations are playing an increasingly important role in the development of small enterprises (SEs) in China, especially in SEs' market entry. However, existing studies pay little attention to this issue. This paper investigates for the first time the effect of environmental regulations on SEs' market entry and the mechanism of environmental regulation effects in China. We consider two sets of panel data for the periods 2003–2010 and 2012–2015 in China. We also use the fixed effect model and the instrumental variable method to explore the role of environmental regulations in SEs' market entry. The results show that, overall, environmental regulations play a significantly positive and robust role in SEs' market entry. However, the mechanisms associated with the effect of environmental regulations on different innovative types of SEs differ. Environmental regulations promote the market entry of SEs with product innovation, but this impact is not significant for SEs with research and development (R&D) activities and R&D institutions. Our findings indicate that China's SEs prefer product innovation, which is a lower level innovative type, over R&D innovation, as a means to avoid the negative impact of stringent environmental regulations.     

地方官员特征、官员交流与环境治理——基于2003-2013年中国25个省级单位的经验证据

在治理环境的问题上,政府行为在很大程度会受到主政官员的影响.本文利用2003-2013年省级面板数据,分别从理论与实证两个方面考察了官员不同特征和地方官员交流对环境治理的影响.结果显示,在官员特征上,有过中央从政和在非特殊领域以及有过系统性管理工作经验的官员更有利于控制污染.除此之外,官员交流与环境污染治理也呈现了正相关关系.本文的发现是稳健的,有助于加深理解具有何种特征的官员与为何加强地方官员交流会有助于治理环境污染.     

行业报刊市场化经营之管见

在非时政类报刊陆续走向市场的大环境下,行业报刊的市场化势在必行。行业报刊的市场化经营,必须建立一支既懂行业报刊新闻业务,更懂行业报刊经营管理的人才队伍;必须建立与行业报刊市场化相适应的运作机制;必须注重实施行业报刊产业链发展战略。     

纳税筹划中出现问题的原因及对策

纳税筹划自产生以来越来越多地在涉税业务中应用,可筹划的结果却有喜有忧。许多在使用初期被看作十分成功的案例却在业务发生后的数年间变成了反面教材,不但没有达到节税的目的反而给企业带来经济损失。文章分析了纳税筹划失败的原因并提出了合理规划。     

自媒体时代加强物流专业大学生的思想政治教育研究

本文主要通过对自媒体时代下加强物流专业大学生的思想政治教育的重要性进行阐述,引导物流专业大学生的思想政治教育的特点,提出自媒体时代下针对物流专业大学生的思政教育面临的机遇、挑战,最后提出相应的对策。     

地区社会信任对企业股权结构的影响研究——来自CGSS和中国上市公司的经验证据

股权结构是企业的核心治理结构安排,对股东参与公司治理的动机和行为有重要影响.本文使用来自中国综合社会调查(CGSS)的社会信任数据和中国上市公司数据探讨了地区社会信任这一非正式制度对企业股权结构的影响机理.研究发现:(1)地区外群体社会信任对企业股权集中度有负向影响,地区内群体社会信任对企业股权集中度有正向影响,说明内群体社会信任程度高和外群体社会信任程度低的社会信任格局是中国企业股权结构高度集中的重要成因;(2)地区正式制度环境与外群体社会信任可以相互替代:地区正式制度环境越好,外群体社会信任对企业股权集中度的负向影响越弱;(3)企业业绩越好,地区外群体和内群体社会信任对企业股权集中度的影响越弱.     

能源系统动力学应用研究综述

对系统动力学理论在国内外的发展过程以及其在不同领域的广泛应用进行研究,概括了能源系统动力学的实质是系统动力学理论与SD模型在分析各类能源问题的实证研究与应用,报告了能源系统动力学国内外研究现状,总结了系统动力学在能源领域的应用以及其对环境保护、经济发展、社会进步等方面的贡献,并在此基础上展望了能源系统动力学在大数据时代与数据挖掘及GIS等理论结合研究的方向.     

学者型CEO更加自律吗?——学术经历对高管在职消费的影响

本文选取2010—2016年中国沪深A股上市公司样本,实证检验CEO学术经历对高管在职消费行为的影响。研究发现,学术经历有助于CEO强化道德自觉、增强道德自律,形成内在的自我约束与监督机制,进而抑制了其所在企业的高管在职消费活动。当CEO拥有高层次学术经历或来自内部晋升时,CEO学术经历对高管在职消费的抑制效应更为显著。该结论在采用双重差分模型、Heckman两阶段模型控制潜在的内生性问题及其他稳健性检验之后仍然成立。进一步研究表明,在自由现金流较多、董事会规模较大或独立性较低、外部审计监督较弱以及产品市场竞争程度较低等公司内外部治理环境较差的情景下,学者型CEO的自律品质所能发挥的治理作用更大,对高管在职消费的抑制效应也更为明显。此外,在党的十八大之后,随着“八项规定”等多项高压反腐政策的出台,政策效应在国有企业高管在职消费的治理中发挥着主导性作用,CEO学术经历对国有企业高管在职消费的抑制效应有所下降。本文为高管学术经历的治理效应假说提供了证据支持,对于上市公司规范和治理高管在职消费行为、选聘合适的高管人才具有重要的借鉴意义。