Potential Beneficiaries from Reverse Mortgage Products for Elderly Homeowners: An Analysis of American Housing Survey Data

A variety of reverse mortgage loan programs have been available to elderly households for over a decade. The number of unrestricted reverse mortgage loans issued by the private sector has been quite small. About 12,000 loans have been issued through mid-1992. Some researchers take this to mean that the size of the potential market for reverse mortgages is also quite small. Other researchers claim that current low levels of activity reflect supply and demand problems, but that the potential market is in fact quite large. This paper uses American Housing Survey (AHS) data to estimate the potential size of the market for unrestricted reverse mortgages. The 1989 national AHS shows that there are over twelve million elderly homeowners (age 62 and over) who own their homes free and clear. Depending on their income, age and the level of home equity, the group of households most likely to benefit from reverse annuity mortgages is considerably smaller. As one approach to defining a lower bound of the estimate of potential beneficiaries from reverse mortgages, we count the number of homeowners in a prime group consisting of the older elderly, aged 70 or above, with an annual income of $30,000 or less, with home equity between $100,000 and $200,000, who have lived in their homes for over ten years. We estimate that there are about 800,000 elderly households in this prime group. For such households, reverse mortgage payments could represent a substantial percentage increase in income; other definitions of target groups can also be explored using the tables provided. The paper uses the 1985 through 1988 AHS Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) surveys to identify areas that have a large number of elderly homeowners in the prime target group, and in which these homeowners represent a large fraction of the elderly homeowner population. These locations are likely targets for introduction of reverse mortgage products because any campaign can be targeted towards a high concentration of likely eligible beneficiaries.     

Alternate scenario planning

Although a number of organizations are attempting to add flexibility to their planning efforts by using Alternate Scenario Planning techniques, formal methodologies for preparing appropriate scenario sets are only now being developed. One 12-step scenario set generation technique is described in this article, and a particular application of the technique by a government-industry-university team is discussed.     

A model of wine tourist behaviour: a festival approach

The study constructs a temporal model of wine tourist behaviour on the basis of the social psychologist' theory of consumer attitudes and related concepts with regard to past behaviour, satisfaction, perceived value and behavioural intentions. More importantly, this study added two dimensions to this model by proposing that satisfaction and perceived value had an impact on the attendees' intentions (i) to visit a local winery and (ii) to buy local wine products. Using a path analysis approach and data collected from the attendees at a regional wine festival, the study examined the above relationships. The results of this path analysis can be summarised as: (i) past behaviour influenced the intention to revisit and the level of perceived value, but had no effect on the level of satisfaction; (ii) perceived value strongly affected the level of satisfaction; (iii) satisfaction had a strong impact on future intentions to revisit and also an effect on intentions to visit local wineries and to buy local wine products; and (iv) perceived value affected the intentions to revisit the festival and to visit local wineries but did not influence the intentions to buy local wines. It is believed that the results of the present study will be useful to organisers of wine festivals and/or wine tourism developers. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adolescent risk perception,substance use,and educational attainment

This paper studies whether adolescents who are more aware of the risks on substance use in the early teenage years are later less likely to turn into binge drinkers or smokers. It also examines if reduction in substance use, due to high risk perception among adolescents, consequently improves their educational achievement. This research is important for two reasons. First, enhancing risk perception of substance use is an important strategy to prevent the youth from binge drinking and smoking. Second, adolescent substance use and educational achievement are key predictors of adulthood outcomes. We apply a bivariate probit model to a large representative dataset which codes youth risk perception, substance use, and educational attainment. The analysis shows high risk perception lowers the likelihood of substance use among the high school seniors. The resulting low alcohol use increases the chance of attending college and decreases the probability of dropping out of high school. The reduction in cigarette use caused by high risk perception has a similar effect on such two educational outcomes. It also increases high school graduation by 22%. Overall, this study suggests that enhancing recognition on the hazards of substance use is an effective policy intervention to reduce adolescent binge drinking and smoking, as well as improve educational attainment.     

A role for public procurement in system innovation: the transformation of the Greater Manchester (UK) waste system

The transformation of socio-technical systems to more sustainable states is more policy induced than market driven. Reflecting this, the potential for governments to direct system transformation has been widely debated. However, this debate concentrates on supply side policies and under analyses the potential for public buyers to steer system innovation. This paper draws from ideas on system innovation, transition management and public procurement to explore how a major public buyer was able to do just this. The paper describes the transformation of the Greater Manchester (UK) waste system from a relatively simple landfill model to a highly complex, multi-technology solution of intensive recycling, composting and energy production. The paper draws three main conclusions: (1) it is possible to orchestrate system innovation through public procurement in certain circumstances; (2) this involves developing the required interdependencies between technologies, institutions and practices; (3) system transformation can be orchestrated from within the incumbent regime.     

Lessons from the field: reflecting on a tourism research journey around the ‘celtic’ periphery

The challenge within the tourism academy to acknowledge the situated nature of knowledge within the research process is intensifying. Drawing on a multidisciplinary body of reflexive narratives and recent work in tourism that acknowledges the personal influences that construct knowledges, this paper embraces this challenge by offering an autobiographic narration of field work in Ireland, Scotland and Cornwall. Food tourism is employed as a conceptual vehicle to pursue a more culturally focused, critical tourism investigation, thereby contributing to work that extends tourism research beyond the sphere of management and business. Drawing on research involving in-depth interviews with (food) tourists and participant observation, it is suggested that tourism knowledge is constructed at the micro-level, directly shaped by seemingly insignificant or overlooked moments. The paper illustrates how personal aspects of field work (gender, age, ethnicity, personal insecurity, loneliness and physical demands), combined with overcoming more practical issues (weather and transport logistics), should inform the contextual foundations of any empirical research; it from these moments where tourism knowledge is truly cultivated. Underpinned by qualitative methodological literature within a framework of critical realism, it urges others to embark upon a similar reflexive journey in order to develop tourism research into a robust sphere of academic enquiry.     

A research agenda for improving national Ecological Footprint accounts

Nation-level Ecological Footprint accounts are currently produced for more than 150 nations, with multiple calculations available for some nations. The data sets that result from these national assessments typically serve as the basis for Footprint calculations at smaller scales, including those for regions, cities, businesses, and individuals. Global Footprint Network's National Footprint Accounts, supported and used by more than 70 major organizations worldwide, contain the most widely used national accounting methodology today. The National Footprint Accounts calculations are undergoing continuous improvement as better data becomes available and new methodologies are developed. In this paper, a community of active Ecological Footprint practitioners and users propose key research priorities for improving national Ecological Footprint accounting. For each of the proposed improvements, we briefly review relevant literature, summarize the current state of debate, and suggest approaches for further development. The research agenda will serve as a reference for a large scale, international research program devoted to furthering the development of national Ecological Footprint accounting methodology.     

Pan-European Advertising: Think Europe—Act Local

Changes in Europe resulting from the unification of EC countries and the accessibility of new Eastern European markets have fundamentally altered the trading environment in which advertising agencies operate. As the advertising industry attempts to get to grips with legislative and media changes, agencies are working hard to create alliances and develop networks which encompass markets in which they did not traditionally have a presence. This article draws on a combination of quantitative and qualitative information collected from secondary sources and extended personal interviews with key agency personnel, advertisers and representatives from the UK's Advertising Association and The Advertising Standards Authority. The objective is to show how the advertising industry and agencies are continuing to gear up to meeting the new demands of the Europeanized market.     

Understanding the Level of Marketing Activity in the Leisure Sector

The level of marketing activity in services businesses has been widley debated in the services literature. The article reviews the application of marketing analysis, planning and control activities in one area of the leisure sector: wildlife attractions, zoos and safari parks. The analysis combines a literature review with secondary data collection and semi-structured personal interviews with senior managers at key establishments. The findings highlight the use of recongnised strategic and tactical marketing concepts which are subsequently related to a recognised model of services marketing. The relevance of the services marketing model is seen to vary for different groups of establishments. The terms minimalists, entrepreneurs and planners are used to reflect the level of marketing activity undertaken.