Testing for rational expectations in the UK National Lottery

The concept of rational expectations has typically been assumed, without testing, in the analysis of consumer demand and market efficiency in betting markets, including betting on lottery games. Lottery games offer an excellent opportunity to test how participants process the information that is available to them. Using the UK National Lottery as our particular case, we find that participants, in general, efficiently process available information. Specifically, they act as if they can, on average, forecast the level of sales for a given drawing.     

Do Female Mutual Fund Managers Manage Differently?

We examine the performance and investment behavior of female fixed‐income mutual fund managers compared with male fixed‐income mutual fund managers. We find that male‐ and female‐managed funds do not differ significantly in terms of performance, risk, and other fund characteristics. Our results suggest that differences in investment behavior often attributed to gender may be related to investment knowledge and wealth constraints. Despite the similarities between male and female managers, we find evidence that gender influences the decision making of mutual fund investors. We find that the net asset flows into funds managed by females are lower than for males, especially for the manager's initial year managing the fund.     

Impact of importing foreign talent on performance levels of local co-workers

When skilled labour is imported to work in a creative industry, local workers may benefit, in terms of their own level of skill, through contact with new techniques and practices. European basketball offers an opportunity to investigate the reality of this general claim. For a panel of 47 European countries observed over more than twenty years, we model probability of qualification for, and subsequent performance in, Olympic Tournaments and World and European Championships. We demonstrate that, consistent with the spillover hypothesis, an increase in the number of foreigners in a domestic league tends to generate a subsequent improvement in the performance of the national team (which has to be comprised only of local players).     

Sport and Gambling

We review the relationships between gambling and sport. Britishsports and sports infrastructure have benefited considerablyfrom funding through the National Lottery. We argue that thereis an implicit sports tax on lottery products and that thispolicy may be neither efficient nor equitable. We suggest thatfurther research, employing contingent valuation methodology,would be required before any firm conclusion could be made overwhether the spending facilitated by the tax represents an efficientallocation of resources. Betting on events and outcomes in sport,especially team sports, has become a high-growth sector; weexplore the potential for sports to capture some of this bettorspending and discuss associated public-policy issues. Whilesport may extract revenue from betting, there are also costs.We focus especially on betting corruption in sports, developingan expected utility framework to show where the risk of corruptionis most likely to arise and what regulatory options are opento sports governing bodies and government.     

The role of current and non-current accruals in the relation between stock returns and earnings

This study examines the role of accruals in the relation between stock returns and earnings for intervals of one to four years. We argue that the roles of current and non-current accruals differ because the former turn over more frequently while the latter include long term timing differences and permanent differences. Accordingly, the roles of both categories of accruals are examined over intervals within and beyond the cycle of current accruals. The results suggest that accruals strengthen the association between stock returns and earnings and that they are more important for shorter intervals. Further, non-current accruals play a dominant role in the relation between stock returns and earnings while the effect of current accruals is negligible for all intervals examined.     

Enhancing Online Learning Through Technology: Case Study of Principles of Macroeconomics at Central Connecticut State University

International Advances in Economic Research -     

Debt,deficits, and inflation

This article sketches the theory of debt finance and cites historical evidence on the sustainability of debt. If it is accepted that the future should under the current circumstances of COVID‐19 help to alleviate the problems of the present, then debt finance is in principle appropriate. It need not lead to an explosive rise in the debt‐to‐GNP ratio. British history shows that the theory can work in practice. A satisfactory outcome, however, depends on government being reliable, honest, and competent. Trust is easily lost and hard to restore.     

A Bayesian interpretation of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and the Taylor Rule

When the Federal Reserve was established by the US Congress in 1913, its charter mandated that the new central bank “promote an elastic currency” and the institution was given extraordinary powers to serve as a lender of last resort to the banking system. Congress was reacting to the cycle of financial panics that had beset the country since the Civil War and had worsened with the Panic of 1907. Congress sought to find a remedy to prevent runs on banks turning into full-fledged financial crises. The term “elastic” in the opening words of the charter was intended to underscore the need for a robust banking system that could withstand shocks and not collapse upon itself. There was no mention whatsoever of a dual mandate of promoting price stability and encouraging full employment.With prodding from the US Congress, the Federal Reserve became highly involved in the management of the economy of the United States after WWII, focusing on inflation and full employment objectives. In 1993 Professor John Taylor set forth an elegant and simple framework (aka, the Taylor Rule) for analyzing the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve in terms of its dual mandate.This paper examines Federal Reserve behavior from the mid-1950s to 2011 through the lens of the Taylor Rule. Our contribution is to use a dynamic linear model with Bayesian inference to update the evolution through time of the key parameters surrounding the inflation and full employment mandates, using only the information available to the Federal Reserve at each point in time. Our findings provide a more nuanced quantitative view than is previously available in the literature of how the Federal Reserve shifted its management of its dual mandate over time and in response to different economic challenges. Moreover, our research leads to serious questions of how Federal Reserve decision making may change in the future, following the financial panic of 2008, pointing toward numerous avenues for new research.     

What drives leverage in leveraged buyouts? An analysis of European leveraged buyouts’ capital structure

This paper examines leverage in European private equity‐led leveraged buyouts (LBOs). We use a unique, self‐constructed sample of 126 European private equity (PE)‐sponsored buyouts completed between June 2000 and June 2007. We find that determinants derived from classical capital structure theories do not explain leverage in LBOs, while they do drive leverage in a control group of comparable public firms. Rather, we document that leverage levels in LBOs are related to the prevailing conditions in the debt market. In addition, our results indicate that reputed private equity sponsors use more debt and that secondary buyouts have higher leverage levels.