Neighbors follow early adopters under stress: panel data analysis of submergence‐tolerant rice in northern Bangladesh

The benefits of a stress‐tolerant crop become visible under the stresses that the crop is tolerant against. We investigate the adoption of submergence‐tolerant rice in northern Bangladesh by using panel data of 461 households, interviewed in 2013 and 2015. The sample households were randomly selected in 31 villages where submergence‐tolerant rice seeds were given to a small number of farmers in each village. The results from the household fixed‐effects model indicate that submergence in the previous year increased the adoption of submergence‐tolerant rice. The adoption impact was larger among farmers who were neighbors of early seed recipients. Our results suggest that being neighbors of early seed recipients may have helped the neighboring farmers observe the benefits of the submergence‐tolerant rice under submergence. The results indicate the importance of the information flow from early recipients to neighboring farmers.     

Change-point analysis through integer-valued autoregressive process with application to some COVID-19 data

In this article, we consider the problem of change-point analysis for the count time series data through an integer-valued autoregressive process of order 1 (INAR(1)) with time-varying covariates. These types of features we observe in many real-life scenarios especially in the COVID-19 data sets, where the number of active cases over time starts falling and then again increases. In order to capture those features, we use Poisson INAR(1) process with a time-varying smoothing covariate. By using such model, we can model both the components in the active cases at time-point t namely, (i) number of nonrecovery cases from the previous time-point and (ii) number of new cases at time-point t. We study some theoretical properties of the proposed model along with forecasting. Some simulation studies are performed to study the effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, we analyze two COVID-19 data sets and compare our proposed model with another PINAR(1) process which has time-varying covariate but no change-point, to demonstrate the overall performance of our proposed model.     

A Kiss of Life for the Withering Doha Round of the Multilateral Trade Negotiations?

Abstract

Notwithstanding the gallant intensions, the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations (MTNs) proved to be egregiously problem-prone. It went down in the history of multilateral trade as the first round to be suspended. Potsdam was the final link in this chain of breakdowns. While the G-8 leaders supported the DDA, their trade delegations did not seem to abide by the public pronouncements of their leaders. This article delves into the anatomy of this failure and points toward the salient factors that led to it. There is an imperious need for resuscitating the Doha Round and for the key players to be flexible and take some decisive steps forward. The round is too important for the community of trading economies to be allowed to collapse. Revival is a possible and credible objective. A two-stage revival process is suggested in this article.     

The Chinese and Indian Economies: Comparing the Comparables

Both China and India were noted for their prowess and prosperity in the remote past, but in the recent past they went into a precipitous decline and became marginal economies, known for large impoverished masses and economic stagnation. Early in the 21st century, China and India are once again being seen as two emerging economic powers of the global economy. The closing decades of the 20th century were remarkable for both the economies. China in particular turned in a stellar economic performance. In the beginning of the 21st century, it was even being seen as the economic super power of the future. It has emerged as a low-cost manufacturing juggernaut invading global markets in a sizeable array of products, with a high and rapidly rising level merchandise exports and imports. In comparison, India's post-1991 growth performance has shown improvement. Although its success in the services sector exports is noteworthy, its economic performance did not match that of China. The economic weight of China and its integration into the global economy is going to continue to increase, and India could follow suit. This article compares and contrasts the two emerging-market economies of Asia, their soaring global significance and global integration and draws policy related lessons from it.     

Decentralisation,clientelism and social protection programmes: a study of India’s MGNREGA

Abstract

Does decentralisation promote clientelism? If yes, through which mechanisms? We answer these questions through an analysis of India’s (and the world’s) largest workfare programme, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), in two Indian states: Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh (AP). The two states adopted radically different implementation models: Rajasthan’s decentralised one stands in contrast with Andhra Pradesh’s centralised and bureaucracy-led model. Using a mixed method approach, we find that in both states local implementers have incentives to distribute MGNREGA work in a clientelistic fashion. However, in Rajasthan, these incentives are stronger, because of the decentralised implementation model. Accordingly, our quantitative evidence shows that clientelism is more serious a problem in Rajasthan than in AP.     

Indian Economy: Growth Performance and Prospects of Transitioning the Growth Trajectory

After a prolonged period of underperformance, Indian economy picked up momentum during the 1980s and 1990s. After 2001, it even had a period of stellar economic growth and the real gross domestic product growth rate came tantalizingly close to double digit. Optimists began to believe that India could emulate China's sustained superlative economic performance. The author argues that this amounts to stretching optimism. There is still a long list of macroeconomic reform and restructuring measures that have been ignored. Whether it will be able to emulate China will essentially depend on doing what was left undone in the past.     

A contingent theory of supplier management initiatives: Effects of competitive intensity and product life cycle

Direct investments in supplier development and close relationship building are the two major collaborative supplier management strategies for developing and accessing superior supplier capability. The impact of these two strategies, however, has not been uniform across firms, calling for a deeper examination of their relative effectiveness. Utilizing multiple theoretical frameworks, this study examines the relevance and effectiveness of the two collaborative strategies across the growth and maturity stages of the product life cycle (PLC). Specifically, the study analyzes the influence of competitive intensity as an antecedent to supplier development and relational initiatives, and the role of product life cycle as a moderator of the inter-relationships among competitive intensity, supplier development, relational initiatives, and supplier capability. Based on primary survey data, and discussion with practicing managers, the study finds that the individual and integrative effectiveness of supplier development investments (SDI) and relational orientation (RO) can be influenced differently by competitive intensity and PLC stage. In particular, RO can have a foundational role in motivating SDI for superior supplier capability, as also in safeguarding against supplier opportunism in the standardized product market context of the maturity stage. The managerial and theoretical implications of varied emphasis on the two collaborative supplier management strategies across the PLC stages are discussed.     

Contemporary Phase of Globalization: Does It Have a Serious Downside?

Abstract

There are many who logically or illogically regard the contemporary phase of economic globalization as a negative, harmful, destructive, marginalizing and malevolent influence. Notwithstanding its positive welfare implications, it has been a serious source of national, regional and global economic problems for many economies, both developing and advance industrial ones. Partial blame for the fall 2008 meltdown of the global financial market does justly go to globalization. It is also blamed for uneven distribution of income within and between countries. Consequently global policy environment has turned globalization-unfriendly. Without negating the affirmative aspects of globalization and its welfare-enhancing contributions, this article focuses on the negative aspects of the contemporary phase of economic globalization.     

WTO,the Trips and Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

This paper analyzes the efficiency of firms in Indian Pharmaceutical Industry before and after the Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement. The analysis reveals that the efficiency of firms has increased after the Indian legislature has passed the bill for accepting patent applications in early 1999. We find that R&D intensity and market share influence efficiency of firms. The impact of import intensity enhances inefficiency. Our result indicates absence of ownership effects after the Indian legislature had passed the bill for accepting patent applications.

     

The impact of recall periods on reported morbidity and health seeking behavior

Between 2000 and 2002, we followed 1621 individuals in Delhi, India using a combination of weekly and monthly-recall health questionnaires. In 2008, we augmented these data with another 8 weeks of surveys during which households were experimentally allocated to surveys with different recall periods in the second half of the survey. We show that the length of the recall period had a large impact on reported morbidity, doctor visits; time spent sick; whether at least one day of work/school was lost due to sickness and; the reported use of self-medication. The effects are more pronounced among the poor than the rich. In one example, differential recall effects across income groups reverse the sign of the gradient between doctor visits and per-capita expenditures such that the poor use health care providers more than the rich in the weekly recall surveys but less in monthly recall surveys. We hypothesize that illnesses – especially among the poor – are no longer perceived as “extraordinary events” but have become part of “normal” life. We discuss the implications of these results for health survey methodology, and the economic interpretation of sickness in poor populations.