A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability

We present a simulation-based method for solving discrete-timeportfolio choice problems involving non-standard preferences,a large number of assets with arbitrary return distribution,and, most importantly, a large number of state variables withpotentially path-dependent or non-stationary dynamics. The methodis flexible enough to accommodate intermediate consumption,portfolio constraints, parameter and model uncertainty, andlearning. We first establish the properties of the method forthe portfolio choice between a stock index and cash when thestock returns are either iid or predictable by the dividendyield. We then explore the problem of an investor who takesinto account the predictability of returns but is uncertainabout the parameters of the data generating process. The investorchooses the portfolio anticipating that future data realizationswill contain useful information to learn about the true parametervalues.     

What if the UK had Joined the Euro in 1999?

The issue of whether the UK should join the European single currency has been fiercely debated for the past two decades. However little research has been devoted to forecasting hypothetical projections for important UK economic variables, assuming that the UK had in fact joined the euro at its inception in 1999. This paper focuses on estimating counterfactual series for two key macroeconomic variables: unemployment and output. We do this by estimating Phillips curves for the UK, which we then use to compute counterfactual series for what unemployment and output may have looked like for the UK had they adopted the single currency in 1999. Based on the comparison of our forecasts with observed data, we find that the UK was correct in not joining the euro; had they adopted the European single currency in 1999, unemployment would have been higher and output would have been lower.     

Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey

I review the state of empirical asset pricing devoted to understanding cross-sectional differences in average rates of return. Both methodologies and empirical evidence are surveyed. Tremendous progress has been made in understanding return patterns. At the same time, there is a need to synthesize the huge amount of collected evidence.     

A corporate bond innovation of the 90s: The clawback provision in high-yield debt

This paper examines a recent financial innovation in corporate bond contracts, referred to as the clawback provision. A clawback provision in debt contracts gives the issuer an option to redeem a specified fraction of the bond issue within a specified period at a predetermined price and with funds that must come from a subsequent equity offering. We argue that issuers use clawback provisions to mitigate the wealth losses that would otherwise occur when new equity is offered. Consistent with the hypotheses, the evidence shows that bond offerings are more likely to include a clawback provision if their issuers are private, have more intangible assets, have fewer liquid assets, and are unregulated. We also estimate the price of clawback provisions and find that yield spreads on bonds with clawback provisions are a median of 86 basis points higher relative to what they otherwise would be.     

Network formation and social coordination

This paper develops a simple model to examine the interaction between partner choice and individual behavior in games of coordination. An important ingredient of our approach is the way we model partner choice: we suppose that a player can establish ties with other players by unilaterally investing in costly pairwise links. In this context, individual efforts to balance the costs and benefits of links are shown to lead to a unique equilibrium interaction architecture. The dynamics of network formation, however, has powerful effects on individual behavior: if costs of forming links are below a certain threshold then players coordinate on the risk-dominant action, while if costs are above this threshold then they coordinate on the efficient action. These findings are robust to modifications in the link formation process, different specifications of link formation costs, alternative models of mutations as well as the possibility of interaction among indirectly connected players.     

Loan Loss Provisions by Banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore

This paper studies loan loss disclosures by banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore for the period 1993 through 2000. We find that unexpected loan loss provisions are positively related to bank stock returns and future cash flows. This indicates that Asian bank managers increase loan loss provisions to signal favorable cash flow prospects, and bank investors bid bank stock prices up when unexpected provisions are positive. These results are consistent with those obtained by Wahlen (1994) for US banks. We also examine the impact of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 on the loan loss variables. The results indicate that the association between the unexpected loan loss provisions and bank stock returns and future cash flows was significantly lower in the crisis years, relative to the non‐crisis period. Evidently, discretionary loan loss provisions had no signaling value during the crisis. This suggests that macroeconomic uncertainty influenced the strategic behavior of Asian bank managers and investors.     

The not-so-secret-agent: Professional monitors,hierarchies and implementation

Abstract. It is well-known that, when agents in an organization possess private information that is unverifiable by an outside party, games where agents simply announce their information can have multiple equilibria that may impede the successful implementation of the organization's objectives. We show that the introduction of a professional monitor (e.g. auditor, regulator, supervisor) can help to destroy the “bad' equilibria when agents have private information but have incomplete info rmation about others' information. Received: 21 May 1998 / Accepted: 26 May 2000