A Model for Analyzing the Impact of Selective Lapsation on Mortality

Abstract

This paper presents a model for examining the effect of various relationships between mortality rates and lapse rates on the mortality experience of a cohort of insured lives. The approach is individual rather than the aggregate traditionally used in analyzing selective lapsation. The model assumes that insured lives are healthy at policy issue, but later may move to an impaired state from which the lapse rate is zero. Associated with each insured is an unobservable “risk level” random variable, which reflects the heterogeneity of the insured group. Individual mortality and lapse rates are functions of the risk level. A numerical illustration provides some interesting results obtained by using this model.     

Yardstick and incentive issues in UK electricity distribution price controls

Electricity distribution is a primary candidate for regulation since it is a natural monopoly whose costs it would be inefficient to duplicate in a competitive market. In the UK since privatisation of the electricity industry in 1990, this regulation has emphasised incentives for cost efficiency through the use of RPI‐X price capping applied to 14 regional distribution businesses. The paper examines the issues that have arisen in implementation, including the practice of bench‐marking the operating and capital expenditures of different companies. It analyses how the price set at the beginning of each review period depends on the determination of cost yardsticks, the weighted average cost of capital and the regulatory asset base of the companies. The analytical model is used to evaluate Ofgem's 1999 Distribution Price Control Review and compares it with other European distribution price regulations.     

A framework for evaluating CDT practice with respect to the ethos of CDT

The increasing pressures of account-ability faced by schools have been the application of various adaptations of self-evaluation methods. However, charges of lack of objectivity (Simons in Skilbeck, 1984 p. 52) have been directed at such responses, and these were fuelled by observations that teachers lack the skills and understanding to undertake evaluation (Mathias, 1983).These pressures are intensified for Craft, Design & Technology as a result of its youth and the nature and brief existence of the subject. As a curriculum area it is different from its forerunners, yet most CDT teachers were not purposefully educated to teach it. The centralist nature of its introduction together with a misunderstanding of CDT and the skills demanded produced varying degrees of support and interpretation. This was compounded by the lack of CDT research and literature (Toft in Cross & McCormack, 1987 p.298).     

MEDICARE AND INEQUALITIES IN HEALTH OUTCOMES: THE CASE OF BREAST CANCER

This article evaluates whether expanding Medicare to cover those between ages 55 and 64 will improve the health status of these near-elderly individuals. We compare the experiences of near-elderly and elderly women with breast cancer and pay special attention to those demographic groups traditionally thought to be disadvantaged. Using unique individual-level data from the National Cancer Institute, we find that expanding Medicare does not improve the probability that a black woman will have her cancer diagnosed early. However, if she does happen to be diagnosed early, a discretE-time hazard model of survival finds that the price effects of insurance will improve her odds of survival.     

Matching Supply and Demand: The Value of a Second Chance in Producing Seed Corn

This paper analyzes the supply chain for hybrid seed corn in which there are two sequential production periods with random yields before demand occurs. We show that the problem of managing the supply chain can be viewed as a multiperiod optimization model that is easily solved. By examining data that represents actual costs, prices, and yields encountered in the seed corn industry, we gain some insight into the value that the second production period provides. Using a representative sample of hybrids from a major seed corn producer, we show that margins could be enhanced considerably by using the model.     

Behaviors of Pre-Venture Entrepreneurs and Perceptions of Their Financial Needs

Some studies have examined different barriers faced by entrepreneurs in starting their firms. For example, lack of business education, training, or managerial experience may have an impact on the firm's success. This study sought to determine whether there were any differences in the assistance and training needs between male and female pre-venture entrepreneurs as well as between Hispanic and Anglo pre-venture entrepreneurs. The training needs focused on the areas of finance and accounting. A sample of 133 clients of a regional Small Business Development Center (SBDC) was used to make this comparison. The results indicated differences between males and females in most cases and especially between Hispanic females and Hispanic males. The Hispanic males felt they needed less assistance in the areas of finance and accounting than the Hispanic females did. However, the SBDC consultants felt that both the Anglo and Hispanic females needed less assistance in those areas than the Anglo and Hispanic males needed.     

Reviews

TECS AND SMALL FIRMS.

Curran, J. 1993: TECs and Small Firms: Can TECs Reach The Small Firms Other Strategies Have Failed To Reach? Kingston University.

URBAN PLANNING TODAY.

Rydin, Y. 1993: The British Planning System: An Introduction. London: MacMillan, £14.99, paper, 404pp.

COMMUNITY PARTNERSHIP.

Macfarlane, R. and Laville, J-L1993: Developing Community Partnerships in Europe. London: Directory of Social Change/Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, £12.95.

LOCAL LABOUR.

Campbell, M. and Duffy, K. 1992: Local Labour Markets: Problems and Policies. Harlow: Longman, £22.00, paper.

MARGINAL REGIONS.

Flogenfeldt, T., Hansen, J.C., Nordgreen, R. and Rohr, J.M. (eds) 1993: Conditions for Development in Marginal Regions, Proceedings of the XI International Seminar on Marginal Regions August 1991, Oppland College, Norway, Price NKr. 300, paper.

MARGINAL REGIONS.

Flogenfeldt, T., Hansen, J.C., Nordgreen, R. and Rohr, J.M. (eds) 1993: Conditions for Development in Marginal Regions, Proceedings of the XI International Seminar on Marginal Regions August 1991, Oppland College, Norway, Price NKr. 300, paper.     

THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN EXECUTIVE SUCCESSION AND DISCRETIONARY ACCOUNTING CHANGES: EARNINGS MANAGEMENT OR DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES?

This paper investigates the association of executive changes with both income increasing and decreasing accounting changes. Two potential explanations for the hypothesis that firms with changes in CEOs are more likely to make accounting changes are examined. The earnings management explanation holds that new management intervenes in the financial reporting process in order to alter perceptions of effectiveness. The different perspectives explanation holds that managements have different tastes, perspectives, or views of the world than the predecessor. Evidence supports the different perspectives explanation.