Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

Capital structure and the control of managerial incentives

We present a theory of capital structure based on the power of shareholders, bondholders and managers to control the incentive conflicts in large corporations. The manager–owner conflict produces a trade-off between inefficiency in the low state and rents in the high state, and the shareholder–bondholder conflict produces under-investment as in Myers [Journal of Financial Economics 19 (1997) 147]. Since managers and bondholders both prefer more efficient actions in the low state, the two conflicts are interdependent. With risk-less levels of debt, there are no shareholder–bondholder agency costs, but managerial control over the incentive-setting process produces excessive rents. With risky debt, shareholders focus more on returns in the high state so that shareholder–bondholder agency costs increase but managerial rents decrease. Efficient levels of debt holder protection facilitate a reduction in manager–owner agency costs that outweighs shareholder–bondholder agency costs, and are decreasing in firm performance. The results are consistent with the separate empirical results relating control to both compensation and leverage, and suggest how future studies can be integrated.     

Capital structure around the world: The roles of firm- and country-specific determinants

We analyze the importance of firm-specific and country-specific factors in the leverage choice of firms from 42 countries around the world. Our analysis yields two new results. First, we find that firm-specific determinants of leverage differ across countries, while prior studies implicitly assume equal impact of these determinants. Second, although we concur with the conventional direct impact of country-specific factors on the capital structure of firms, we show that there is an indirect impact because country-specific factors also influence the roles of firm-specific determinants of leverage.     

Predicting the budgetary funding need of education in the three-year budget for 2008–2010

The paper presents a technique developed by the authors, which makes it possible to determine the necessary amount of financing for education at all the budget system levels for 2008-2010, based on the Russian average value of financing, taking into account the budget expenditures index for two variants of student population, i.e. the actual number of on-budget students and the number of students required to meet the economy’s need for trained workers. The technique was developed and the calculations were made on the basis of Russian long-term forecasts and the Russian three-year federal budget for 2008–2010.     

Trends in economic cooperation between Southern Russian regions

The economic situation, foreign economic relations, and export/import structure of Southern Russian regions are considered; the author’s opinion on the development of free economic prices in Southern Russiaís resort area is given; this conclusion is justified on the grounds that any trends emerging in the foreign relations of Southern Russian regions must be adjusted to match the targets set for the country as a whole.     

著名经济学家季崇威对外开放思想述评——纪念季崇威先生逝世两周年

在人生旅途上,有长者始终如一的关怀和指导,是幸运的,这可以让我们少走弯路,进步成长更快.我无疑是幸运的.我国对外开放理论的先驱、德高望重的季崇威先生,也是我非常敬重的长者,引领我在对外开放理论研究中走过十多年的岁月,耳濡目染,季老的学术思想、高尚品格令我终生受益.     

The different faces of coupon elasticity

Coupons account for over two-thirds of all consumer promotional efforts initiated by the manufacturers of consumer goods. In this study, the impact of coupons on brand sales is investigated and how that impact decays over the life of the coupon is demonstrated. Specifically, we present an econometric model that can capture coupon effects in terms of equivalent price reduction, account for coupon effects over time, allow inference of coupon effects when retailers decide to double or triple the coupon value, and provide both self-coupon and cross-coupon elasticities at different levels of aggregation. A widely used sales response model is adapted, and an analytical model is proposed to estimate both the self-coupon and cross-coupon (face value) elasticities of sales at the store level. From the store-level elasticity estimates for a given week, the authors analytically derive the coupon elasticities for the chain level by aggregating across stores, and over the life of the coupon by aggregating over time. The proposed sales response model is estimated with the data obtained from three markets for various product categories, and the coupon elasticities are computed. The proposed framework allows one to demonstrate the hypothetical equivalence of a shelf-price reduction for a given coupon face value in each week. Also, the effect of doubling the face value of a coupon results in more than a proportionate increase in elasticity. The authors find that both self and cross-coupon elasticities are much smaller in magnitude than the average self and cross-price elasticity measures reported in the literature.