DOES THE ECONOMY MATTER? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSAL CHAIN CONNECTING THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTE IN GALICIA

In this paper the causal chain connecting the economy and the vote in 2001 Galician regional elections is analyzed. Our findings demonstrate that economic voting is not just a matter of reactions to economic perceptions. It also depends to a great extent on two intermediate mechanisms: whether or not the incumbent is held responsible for economic outcomes and performance and voters' views of the relative economic management capabilities of opposition parties.     

Investment without regulatory commitment: The case of elastic demand

This paper analyzes a regulation game with asymmetric information and lack of commitment. It expands Besanko and Spulber's (1989) framework to the case of elastic demands using a generalized Nash solution. It is found that the most important property of the equilibrium with inelastic demand is not carried over to the elastic demand case, i.e., incomplete information worsens underinvestment, contrasting to Besanko and Spulber's result.     

An Exploration of Asset Returns in a Production Economy with Relative Habits

This paper explores asset returns in a production economy with habit forming households. We show that a model with capital adjustment costs and relative habits is consistent with salient financial facts, such as the equity premium, the market price of risk, and the riskfree interest rate. These predictions are not at odds with good business cycle predictions. In the model, economy investment is strongly procyclical and more volatile than output, which in turn is more volatile than consumption. Moreover, consumption growth is positively autocorrelated and negatively (positively) correlated with future (past) stock returns.

Deprivation and Subjective Well‐Being: Evidence from Panel Data

This paper uses data from the 2000–08 waves of the German Socio‐Economic Panel dataset (SOEP) to assess the impact of deprivation in various life domains upon individual well‐being. Unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for by means of a random effects model extended to include a Mundlak term and explicit controls for the respondents' personality traits. The paper shows that people care about social comparison information in a number of domains, not just income. Using an equivalent income approach, the estimates suggest that a one standard deviation deterioration of the individual position in the income distribution is as important as a 33.5 percent decrease in own income. This monetary equivalent amounts to an income variation of between 25 and 43 percent when it comes to other deprivation domains, including durables, accommodation, health, and social relations. These results recommend that in the fight against deprivation more emphasis should be directed to these non‐monetary relevant dimensions.     

Endogenizing exogenous default barrier models: The MM algorithm

In this paper, we propose a Maximization–Maximization (MM) algorithm for the assessment of hidden parameters in structural credit risk models. Step M1 updates the value, volatility, and expected return on the firm’s assets by maximizing the log-likelihood function for the time series of equity prices; Step M2 updates the default barrier by maximizing the equity holders’ participation in the firm’s asset value. The main contribution of the method lies in the M2 step, which allows for ‘endogenizing’ the default barrier in light of actual data on equity prices. Using a large international sample of companies, we demonstrate that theoretical credit spreads based on the MM algorithm offer the lowest CDS pricing errors when compared to other, traditional default barrier specifications: smooth-pasting condition value, maximum likelihood estimate, KMV’s default point, and nominal debt.     

A multiple time-series analysis of labor supply and earnings in economic development

Using multivariate time-series techniques, the dynamics of male and female labor supply and earnings in Puerto Rico are examined during a period of rapid economic developemnt, 1953–1978. The temporal analysis suggests that aggregate male and female labor force participation rates are exogenous to male and female earnings. In addition, continous declines in male participation have been partly responsible for increases in both male and female earnings and a narrowing of relative earnings differentials. The study also finds that the advent of the Food Stamp Program in 1975 has resulted in a small reduction in male labor force participation. Moreover, the inclusion of food stamps as an intervention component is quite useful in forecasting the male participation rate. The forecasting accuracy of univariate and multivariate models is assessed with the result that, in every instance, the multivariate transfer functions prove superior. Overall, the results support the incorporation of multiple time-series in econometric studies of developing countries and provide evidence of its usefullness for development planning and policy.     

Strategic Behavior and Efficiency in the Common Property Extraction of Groundwater

Externalities that arise from privateexploitation of groundwater are analyzed by comparing socially optimal and privateextraction. Open-loop Nashequilibrium and stationary Markov feedbackequilibrium in nonlinear strategieshave been computed to characterize privateextraction. The use of thesetwo equilibrium concepts allows us todistinguish between cost andstrategic externalities as long as the open-loop solutioncaptures only the cost externality, and the feedback solution capturesboth. The results show thatstrategic behavior increases theoverexploitation of the aquifer. However, ifthe groundwater storage capacity is large, thedifference between the sociallyoptimal and private extraction is negligible.     

Endogenous coalition formation in contests

This paper analyzes coalition formation in a model of contests with linear costs. Agents first form groups and then compete by investing resources. Coalitions fight for a prize that is assumed to be subject to rivalry, so its value is non-increasing in the size of the group that obtains it. This formulation encompasses as particular cases some models proposed in the rent-seeking literature. We show that the formation of groups generates positive spillovers and analyze two classes of games of coalition formation. A contest among individual agents is the only stable outcome when individual defections leave the rest of the group intact. More concentrated coalition structures, including the grand coalition, are stable when groups collapse after a defection, provided that rivalry is not too strong. Results in a sequential game of coalition formation suggest that there exists a non-monotonic relationship between the level of underlying rivalry and the level of social conflict.

“If men were supplied with every thing in the same abundance, justice and injustice would be equally unknown among mankind.” David Hume (1740), A Treatise of Human Nature

I thank Luis Corchón, Joan Esteban, Michelle Garfinkel and József Sákovics for their comments and suggestions on the paper.     

The economics of credit cards,debit cards and ATMs: A survey and some new evidence

This paper provides a critical survey of the large and diffuse literature on credit cards, debit cards and ATMs. We argue that because there are still many outstanding issues and questions about the pricing, use and substitutability of these payment mechanisms, that there are significant further opportunities for research in these areas. A large number of questions are examined in this survey, including the pricing of credit cards, the impact of networks on the provision and pricing of ATMs, as well as the tradeoffs that consumers make between different types of payment mechanism, including debit cards, credit cards and ATMs. Importantly, this paper is also amongst the first to provide new evidence on this latter question from bank level data (from Spain). We conclude that point of sale (debit card) and ATM transactions are substitutes, and that ATM surcharges impacts point of sale volume significantly.