Disentangling the Effects of Household Financial Constraints and Risk Profile on Mortgage Rates

In this paper we disentangle the impact of household financial constraints on mortgage rate from a number of dimensions of credit risk. This analysis relies on a dataset that contains information on the economic and financial decisions of Spanish households in four different years: 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2011. Our results suggest that banks’ profitable customers are able to bargain for lower mortgage rates. However, contrary to other studies, the risk profile does not have a significant effect on mortgage rates. Credit institutions tend to charge higher rates during the crisis to all customers, irrespective of their risk profiles.     

Legal dispossession and civil war in Colombia

How are institutions that regulate property rights related to the massive coercive dispossession of land that took place during the Colombian conflict? How did the workings of these institutions change during the conflict? We answer these questions through an analysis of a unique data set of rulings on land restitution issued between 2012 and 2015. The paper argues that the exclusionary nature of the institutions that regulate the access and assignment of property rights preceded the onset and escalation of the Colombian conflict, but shows how and why once the conflict began, the set of techniques used to promote coercive dispossession through those institutions could be significantly broadened and escalated. By doing so, it intends to advance the knowledge of how institutions are transformed, in this case in a deeply anti‐egalitarian and violent sense, during war.     

The contribution of vocational training to employment,job‐related skills and productivity: evidence from Madeira

In this paper, we analyse the transition to the labor market of participants in vocational training in Madeira in Portugal. The analysis is in two stages. First, we investigate how the employment status at different dates (1 month, 1 year, and 2 years after the completion of the training program) depends on relevant variables, such as age, gender, education and the content and duration of the training. Second, we use individuals' self‐assessment of the effectiveness of the training program along three dimensions: employment, job‐related skills and productivity. The respondents score training activities high on every dimension. Moreover, we find that training is more effective among the educated, indicating that vocational training is far from being remedial. We also find that long training programs and training related to tourism are particularly effective.     

Safety-net benefits conferred on difficult-to-fail-and-unwind banks in the US and EU before and during the great recession

This paper investigates the links between regulatory arbitrage, financial instability, and taxpayer loss exposures. We model and estimate ex ante safety-net benefits from increased leverage and asset volatility at a sample of large banks in US and Europe during 2003–2008. Hypothesis tests indicate that, in both crisis and precrisis years, difficult-to-fail-and-unwind (DFU) banks enjoyed substantially higher ex ante benefits than other institutions. Compared to the US sample, safety-net benefits prove significantly larger for DFU firms in Europe and bailout decisions are less driven by asset size. Introducing a proxy for differences in government susceptibility to regulatory capture helps to explain bailout decisions in Europe. Our findings suggest that authorities in both venues could better contain safety-net benefits if they refocused their information systems on monitoring volatility as well as capital.     

Antecedents of airline passenger loyalty: Low-cost versus traditional airlines

This study identifies the antecedents of airline user loyalty. A survey is administered to users of three airlines operating Barcelona–London flights. The results show that the principal antecedent of conative loyalty is affective loyalty. The main antecedents of affective loyalty are satisfaction and trust, the latter being revealed as a key variable for guaranteeing the success of relationships between the airline and its users, and also for understanding long term purchasing behavior.     

Simulation of alternative regulations in the Colombian electricity market

The deregulation of the Colombian electricity system took place in 1994 and the pool started operations in 1995. The Colombian system adopted a capacity charge mechanism to increase incentives to invest in new capacity. The capacity charge was showing strength, and apparently driving investments during the initial years. However, the mechanism started to exhibit weaknesses in terms of transparency and disincentives, causing a negative effect on investments. Different authors have presented alternative regulatory options to update the system. A non-standard system dynamics approach to evaluate alternative regulation schemes for the Colombian electricity market is proposed. A specific regulation problem is undertaken to illustrate the proposed methodology. It shows how the capacity charge mechanism, which has been used for reliability purposes, might be changed for alternative schemes. The proposed transformations to the actual regime seem to overcome some of its drawbacks. Simulation results indicate these alternatives improve the general system behaviour. In addition, the underlying model has been used afterwards for other energy policy purposes.     

Prediction intervals in conditionally heteroscedastic time series with stochastic components

Differencing is a very popular stationary transformation for series with stochastic trends. Moreover, when the differenced series is heteroscedastic, authors commonly model it using an ARMA-GARCH model. The corresponding ARIMA-GARCH model is then used to forecast future values of the original series. However, the heteroscedasticity observed in the stationary transformation should be generated by the transitory and/or the long-run component of the original data. In the former case, the shocks to the variance are transitory and the prediction intervals should converge to homoscedastic intervals with the prediction horizon. We show that, in this case, the prediction intervals constructed from the ARIMA-GARCH models could be inadequate because they never converge to homoscedastic intervals. All of the results are illustrated using simulated and real time series with stochastic levels.     

How effective are rewards programs in promoting payment card usage? Empirical evidence

Card issuers have mainly relied on rewards programs as their main strategy to increase usage. However, there is scarce evidence on the effectiveness of these programs. This paper is addressing two topics which could have important managerial and public policy implications: (i) it estimates the impact of rewards on the use of cards and (ii) it quantifies their economic effects in terms of the cash substitution. We find that rewards may significantly modify choice for card payments. Their economic impact also varies significantly across types of rewards and merchant activities. Additionally, rewards seem to be more effective for debit cards.     

Securitization,risk-transferring and financial instability: The case of Spain

The 2007–2010 financial crisis has hit a variety of countries asymmetrically. The case of Spain is particularly illustrative as it exemplifies in a vivid manner most of the core issues largely responsible for the crisis. This country experienced a pronounced housing bubble partly funded via spectacular developments in its securitization markets leading to looser credit standards and subsequent financial stability problems. We analyze the sequential deterioration of credit in Spain considering rating changes in securitized deals. Using a sample of 20,286 observations on securities and rating changes from 2000Q1 to 2010Q1 we build a model in which loan growth, on balance-sheet credit quality and rating changes are estimated simultaneously. Our results suggest that loan growth significantly affects on balance-sheet loan performance with a lag of at least two years. Additionally, loan performance is found to explain rating changes with a lag of four quarters. Importantly, bank characteristics (in particular, observed solvency, cash-flow generation and cost efficiency) also affect ratings considerably. Additionally, these other bank characteristics seem to a higher weight in the rating changes of securities issued by savings banks as compared with commercial banks.