Mean square error estimation in multi-stage sampling

Summary: Suppose for a homogeneous linear unbiased function of the sampled first stage unit (fsu)-values taken as an estimator of a survey population total, the sampling variance is expressed as a homogeneous quadratic function of the fsu-values. When the fsu-values are not ascertainable but unbiased estimators for them are separately available through sampling in later stages and substituted into the estimator, Raj (1968) gave a simple variance estimator formula for this multi-stage estimator of the population total. He requires that the variances of the estimated fsu-values in sampling at later stages and their unbiased estimators are available in certain `simple forms'. For the same set-up Rao (1975) derived an alternative variance estimator when the later stage sampling variances have more ‘complex forms’. Here we pursue with Raj's (1968) simple forms to derive a few alternative variance and mean square error estimators when the condition of homogeneity or unbiasedness in the original estimator of the total is relaxed and the variance of the original estimator is not expressed as a quadratic form.  We illustrate a particular three-stage sampling strategy and present a simulation-based numerical exercise showing the relative efficacies of two alternative variance estimators. Received: 19 February 1999     

Formation of special economic zone,liberalized FDI policy and agricultural productivity

Formation of Special Economic Zone (SEZ) using agricultural land to promote industrialization has recently been one of the most controversial policy issues in many developing economies including India. This paper critically evaluates the consequences of this policy in terms of a three-sector Harris–Todaro type general equilibrium model characterizing a typical developing economy. It finds that agriculture and SEZ can grow simultaneously provided the government spends a substantial amount of its resources on irrigation projects and other infrastructural development designed at improving the efficiency of land. Agricultural wage and aggregate employment in the economy may also improve owing to this policy.     

Foreign capital inflow,skilled–unskilled wage inequality and unemployment of unskilled labour in a fair wage model

This paper has developed a three-sector general equilibrium framework that explains unemployment of both skilled and unskilled labour. Unemployment of unskilled labour is of the Harris–Todaro (1970) type while unemployment of skilled labour is caused due to the validity of the FWH in the high-skill sector. There are two types of capital one of which is specific to the primary export sector while the other moves freely among the different sectors. Inflows of foreign capital of either type unambiguously improve the economic conditions of the unskilled working class. However, the effects on the skilled–unskilled wage inequality and the extent of unemployment of both types of labour crucially hinge on the properties implied by the efficiency function of the skilled workers.     

Foreign capital,return to education and child labour

The paper attempts to identify the different channels through which economic reforms can affect the incidence of child labour in a developing economy using a three-sector general equilibrium framework with child labour. We show that reduction in poverty is not a necessary condition for the problem of child labour to improve in the developing economies. Economic reforms like an inflow of foreign capital can mitigate the incidence of child labour by raising the return to education and lowering the earning opportunities of children.     

On estimating the variance of a finite population

Summary Observing that the estimator for a finite population variance as recommended byLiu [1974a, b] can sometimes become negative, we suggest a few non-negative alternative estimators and note some of their properties. UnlikeLiu we follow the conventional Bayesian approach to get another estimator with an optimal property of uniform admissibility.This paper, however, was prepared when the author worked in the Department of Economic Statistics, University of Sydney.     

Can International Factor Mobility Reduce Wage Inequality in a Dual Economy?*

This paper analyzes the consequences of international factor movements on the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in a dual‐economy set‐up that includes unemployment and three intersectorally mobile factors of production—unskilled labor, skilled labor, and capital. Thus far, theoretical literature on this subject has adopted the full‐employment framework and hence ignored the problem of unemployment. The analysis in this paper reveals that the results crucially depend on the difference in the intersectoral factor intensities between skilled labor and capital. In particular, it demonstrates the existence of a possibility of deterioration in wage inequality following foreign unskilled‐labor inflow.     

Randomized response: Estimating mean square errors of linear estimators and finding optimal unbiased strategies

Summary General procedures are described to generate quantitative randomized response (RR) required to estimate the finite population total of a sensitive variable. Permitting sample selection with arbitrary probabilities a formula for the mean square error (MSE) of a linear estimator of total based on RR is noted indicating the simple modification over one that might be based on direct response (DR) if the latter were available. A general formula for an unbiased estimator of the MSE is presented. A simple approximation is proposed in case the RR ratio estimator is employed based on a simple random sample (SRS) taken without replacement (WOR). Among sampling strategies employing unbiased but not necessarily linear estimators based on RR, certain optimal ones are identified under two alternative models analogously to well-known counterparts based on DR, if available. Unlike Warner’s (1965) treatment of categorical RR we consider quantitative RR here.     

Delay and dynamics in labor market adjustment: Simulation results

We simulate numerically a trade model with labor mobility costs added, modeled in such a way as to generate gross flows in excess of net flows. Adjustment to a trade shock can be slow with plausible parameter values. In our base case, the economy moves 95% of the distance to the new steady state in approximately eight years. Gross flows have a large effect on this rate of adjustment and on the normative effects of trade. Announcing and delaying the liberalization can build – or destroy – a constituency for free trade. We study the conditions under which these contrasting outcomes occur.     

How and how far to liberalize a developing economy with informal sector and factor market distortions

Whether a liberalizing developing economy should implement the entire WTO-prescribed package, and to what extent this is expedient, are two important questions, especially because the available empirical evidence suggests that developing countries have been facing substantial adjustment costs in their endeavour to implement trade and investment reform. The present paper makes a humble effort to provide answers to the above questions in terms of a three-sector general equilibrium model with informal sectors. Welfare implications of three liberalization policies: inflow of foreign capital, tariff reduction and labour market reform, have first been analysed in a full-employment framework. Later, the paper has been extended into a Harris?–?Todaro framework with an urban informal sector and capital market distortion. We have shown that welfare consequences of a tariff reform and/or a policy of deregulating the labour market crucially depend on the presence and magnitude of foreign capital in the economy. It is argued here that unless a proper choice among different prescribed policies, compatible with the internal institutional, technological and trade-related characteristics, is made, drastic implementation of reform measures may produce counterproductive results for the welfare of the relevant country.