Adding a freight network to a national interstate input–output model: a TransNIEMO application for California

The state of the nation’s infrastructure is the subject of widespread discussion and comment because it is thought to include many deteriorating and unsafe bridges. Ever since the terrorist attacks of 9/11, there has been increasing concern over the extent to which an attack on infrastructure could result in serious economic disruption. This research develops a model to analyze the economic consequences of an attack on a major element of the highway network. We add a freight network to a national multiregional economic impact model and make freight traffic flows endogenous. The use of a sub-national interstate model recognizes that most infrastructure planning is at the state level and most political leaders’ interest is local. We base our approach on the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) and refer to an elaboration that we name Transportation network and the National Interstate Economic Model (TransNIEMO). The new model enables us to study the state-specific and industry-specific economic impacts of some significant changes in the nature of highway freight movements. We tested the model for selected freight movements in and out of California. The results are entirely plausible and encourage us to elaborate and test the model for hypothetical disruptions of freight traffic throughout the US.     

Can commodity futures risk factors predict economic growth?

This paper examines whether commodity futures risk factors can predict future economic growth. We test risk factors capturing various spot or term premia and find that only three factors capturing term premia on the basis-momentum, basis, and change in slope are robust predictors for future economic growth, especially for long horizons. Our findings highlight the importance of the term premia, rather than the spot premia on which the literature has mainly focused. Moreover, we find that possible explanations for predictability of commodity factors—the intertemporal asset pricing model and information diffusion explanation—are all inconsistent with our empirical results.     

Real estate prices in Beijing, 1644 to 1840

This paper provides the first estimates of housing price movements for Beijing in late pre-modern China. We hand-collect from archival sources transaction prices and other house attribute information from the 498 surviving house sale contracts for Beijing during the first two centuries of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1840), a long period without major wars, political turmoil, or significant institutional change in the Chinese capital. We use hedonic methods to construct a real estate price index for Beijing for the period. The regression analysis explains a major proportion of the variance of housing prices. We find that house prices grew steadily for the first half-century of the Qing Dynasty and declined afterwards in both nominal and real terms through the late eighteenth century. Nominal prices grew starting in the late eighteenth century and declined from the early nineteenth century through 1840. But these price changes occurred with contemporaneous price changes in basic measures of the cost of living: there was little change in real terms to the end of our period.     

Shopping plans,buying motivations,and return policies: impacts on product returns and purchase likelihoods

Product return behavior and factors that contribute to product returns are an under-researched area, despite significant importance to manufacturers and retailers. The current research attempts to fill the gap by focusing on two factors that shape consumer purchase behavior: (1) whether purchases are planned or unplanned, and (2) whether hedonic or utilitarian motivations drive purchases. The findings show that purchase plans and buying motivations have distinctive and interactive impacts on pre-purchase concerns, self-estimated likelihood of returning purchases, and purchase intentions with or without return policies. When hedonic motivation drives purchases, unplanned (vs. planned) purchases lead to higher return concerns, higher return likelihood, and lower buying intentions. When utilitarian motivation drives purchases, planned and unplanned purchases have comparable return concerns, return likelihood, and buying intentions. This interaction effect on buying intentions dissipates when a lenient return policy is offered.     

Leadership competency inventory: A systematic process of developing and validating a leadership competency scale

This article reports psychometric evaluation of the Penn State Leadership Competency Inventory (LCI). The 32‐item LCI was validated on a sample of 323 managers in the health care industry. Preliminary validity and reliability evidence of the LCI was established through exploratory factor analysis (EFA), item‐total correlations, Cronbach's alpha coefficients, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The four‐factor leadership competency scale, comprising supervisory and managerial competencies, organizational leadership, personal mastery, and resource leadership, accounted for 58% of variance. According to CFA results, the model fit of the four latent factors of the LCI was confirmed to be appropriate. Cross‐validation with other populations is needed to confirm the factor structure. Limitations and further research recommendations are discussed.     

Abusive Supervision,Psychological Distress,and Silence: The Effects of Gender Dissimilarity Between Supervisors and Subordinates

Previous research has shed light on the detrimental effects of abusive supervision. To extend this area of research, we draw upon conservation of resources theory to propose (a) a causal relationship between abusive supervision and psychological distress, (b) a mediating role of psychological distress on the relationship between abusive supervision and employee silence, and (c) a moderating effect of the supervisor–subordinate relational context (i.e., gender dissimilarity) on the mediating effect of abusive supervision on silence. Through an experimental study (Study 1), we found the causal path linking abusive supervision and psychological distress. Results of both the experimental study and a field study (Study 2) provided evidence that psychological distress mediated the relationship between abusive supervision and silence. Lastly, we found support that this mediation effect was contingent upon the relational context in Study 2 but not in Study 1. We discuss implications for theory and practice.     

Interdependence in the technology adoption decision among municipalities

This study examines the interdependence among municipalities in the discrete decision to adopt internet technology. Results from probit specifications with interaction effects suggest that cities are influenced by nearby neighbours with similar population size in developing a website. Evidence is also presented indicating interaction among municipalities in the decision to use internet technology to facilitate financial transactions.     

Unsolicited Versus Solicited: Credit Ratings and Bond Yields

This paper is the first attempt to analyze Standard & Poor’s unsolicited and solicited ratings by using bond-yield data in Japan. Our findings show that there are differences in firm characteristics between firms seeking solicited ratings and those that receive unsolicited ratings. Firms with solicited ratings have less information asymmetry and are more likely to be owned by foreign investors, generate more revenue from exports, be cross-listed in the US, and have higher firm quality. But, firms with unsolicited ratings pay higher costs for debt, and their bond prices react more strongly to credit-rating changes. Yield spreads for new bonds with unsolicited ratings are higher than those with solicited ratings, because unsolicited ratings have higher information asymmetry, and investors therefore demand higher yields. We find that bond-price reactions to the announcements of unsolicited rating downgrades (upgrades) are negative (positive) and significant, while bond prices do not react significantly to solicited rating downgrades or upgrades.