Forecasting Foreign Exchange Markets Using Google Trends: Prediction Performance of Competing Models

Abstract

Foreign exchange markets affect a variety of humans and businesses worldwide and there is a wide array of literature aimed at providing more accurate forecasts of their movement. In an attempt to quantify human expectations, Google query search terms related to foreign exchange markets are used to help explain and predict foreign exchange rates between the United States’ dollar and ten other currencies during the time period of January 2004 and August 2018. We find evidence that, while Google Trends can be helpful in prediction, it is necessary to implement some sort of shrinkage or sparsity scheme on the coefficients.     

Value versus Volume in the Catch of the Spanish South‐Atlantic Trawl Fishery

An understanding of the link between the level of inputs and resultant level of outputs is of considerable importance when trying to manage fisheries through input controls. To this end, studies of several fisheries have been undertaken to examine this relationship through the estimation of production functions and frontiers, using either catch weight or revenue as the dependent variable. The choice of the appropriate output variable to use in the analysis will depend on the objectives of the fishermen. Maximisation of catch weight is often proposed as an objective of fishermen rather than maximisation of profits. In this paper, the technical efficiency scores of vessels operating in the Spanish south‐Atlantic trawl fishery are estimated using the stochastic production frontier approach. The production frontiers are estimated with both the weight and the value of the catch as the dependent variable. The results of the analysis suggest that fishermen adopt a range of strategies but relatively few aim to maximise catch weight only. The differences in strategies may reflect heterogeneous attitudes towards risk, with more risk averse fishermen aiming to trade‐off some potential catch value for a more certain quantity of catch.     

Entrepreneurial ecosystems and the lifecycle of university business incubators: An integrative case study

University business incubators (UBIs) are an important part of the ecosystem that supports entrepreneurial activities and economic development. Extant research has focused on examining UBI activities at a single point in time, but there is a paucity of theoretical and empirical work aimed at understanding the forces that explain why and how UBIs change over time. This is an important gap because establishing a university business incubator does not assure its development and growth. We address this issue by drawing upon the Fisher et al. Academy of Management Review, 41(3), 383-409 (2016) Identity-Legitimacy-Life Cycle model to explain how the pursuit of resources and organizational legitimacy shapes the development of UBIs along key strategic and operational dimensions, which has implications for performance evaluation over time. We illustrate with a case study about the creation and evolution of the DMZ, a leading UBI at Ryerson University in Canada. This case provides new insights about the dynamics of UBIs and their relationships with the entrepreneurial ecosystems in which they are embedded. Implications for future research, management practice, and public policy are discussed.

     

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Targets: Are Australia,Canada, and New Zealand Different from the U.S.?

Outwardly, the central banks of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. follow somewhat different approaches to controlling inflation. The U.S. does not explicitly target inflation while the other countries do. Canada and New Zealand have target bands for inflation while Australia has a point target. Results in this paper nevertheless find broad similarities in the monetary policies of these countries. Each can be described as having pursued optimal inflation targeting (explicit or implicit), with heavy interest rate smoothing, but perhaps placing little weight on output variability. We argue that interest rate smoothing is used to introduce gradualism into the response of monetary policy to inflation. We show that given heavy interest rate smoothing, a concern for output variability is redundant.     

European Air Transport — Uncabin the Consumer

The deregulation of air routes between London and Dublin has brought travellers the benefits of competition; and, hardly surprisingly, as prices have fallen the numbers making the journey have increased. Sean Barrett, Lecturer in Economics, and Mark Purdy of Trinity College, Dublin, compare the effects of liberalisation with those of the restricted entry to the European air transport market. How long, they ask, will the European consumer be denied similar benefits?     

Dimensions of Performance Effectiveness In High-Involvement Work Organisations

Sharon Parker, Sean Mullarkely and Paul Jackson, who are researchers in the MRC/ESRC Social and Applied Pyschology Unit at the University of Sheffield, draw on detailed case study evidence to consider the substantial changes to the shop floor roles entailed in high involvement work organisations. They argue that specification of the performance requirements of such roles will facilitate employees taking on appropriate behaviours, reduce role confusion, and enable consistency in human resource practices. They discuss the use of repertory grids to explore the models of effective performance held by production managers and derive nine critical dimensions of shop floor employee performance from the analysis. These contain specific behavioural examples and are grouped around four higher-order dimensions: ‘process ownership’, ‘social skills’, ‘personal style’, and loss prevention’. These dimensions form the basis of a broader specification of the skills, knowledge and general orientations required by shopfloor employees in high involvement roles.