Productivity Versus Employment: Quantifying the Economic Effects of an EU–Japan Free Trade Agreement

The European Union and Japan recently entered into negotiations over a bilateral free trade agreement intended to stimulate growth and create wealth. Since customs duties are already low, the success of the liberalisation process hinges on the elimination of non‐tariff barriers. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on two possible liberalisation scenarios: a less ambitious liberalisation and a comprehensive liberalisation. In contrast to classic studies, our paper builds on the modern trade literature, accounting for the dominance of intra‐industry trade in both economies and the existence of heterogeneous firms. Furthermore, we model a search‐and‐matching labour market, allowing us to quantify employment effects of trade liberalisation. We find that a comprehensive liberalisation increases Japanese GDP by 0.86 per cent, whereas the EU experiences only an additional 0.21 per cent of real GDP growth. Most of the growth in real GDP is due to firms' efficiency gains, whereas unemployment is reduced by only a small amount. Other world regions experience small reductions of GDP due to trade diversion effects.     

Ten Lessons from a Decade of Debating an EUBS: Robust Findings,Popular Myths and Remaining Dilemmas

The modern debate on a potential EUBS began in earnest around a decade ago, just prior to the onset of the global financial crisis. In the mid-2000s, current account imbalances and diverging unit labour costs triggered a new debate about transfer systems between euro area countries and, particularly, a European unemployment insurance.     

Using Polynomial Regression Analysis and Response Surface Methodology to Make a Stronger Case for Value Congruence in Place Marketing

Values are an important concept in marketing because they comprise part of peoples’ identity and can thus help marketers separate and target different audiences. Unsurprisingly, places and their marketing initiatives increasingly try to appeal to (potential) residents’ identity by communicating core values. While the notion of value congruence is not novel, most empirical methods in marketing to date only account for the degree rather than the level of congruence. To address this issue, the present article utilizes polynomial regression and response surface methodology (Edwards & Parry, 1993 ) in the context of place marketing. Accordingly, the first study shows that the perceived congruence of residents’ own values and the values of stereotypical city inhabitants significantly affect residents’ feelings about their own cities (N = 1257), but with different effects for different values and levels of congruence. This finding holds not only for popular target groups such as the “creative class” but also across all groups. The second study (N = 449) shows that city slogans can effectively communicate specific values and that value congruence leads to a more positive evaluation of the city brand. Finally, the article discusses the benefits of differentiating between levels of congruence both in marketing research in general, and place brand management in particular.     

Energy Informatics

Due to the increasing importance of producing and consuming energy more sustainably, Energy Informatics (EI) has evolved into a thriving research area within the CS/IS community. The article attempts to characterize this young and dynamic field of research by describing current EI research topics and methods and provides an outlook of how the field might evolve in the future. It is shown that two general research questions have received the most attention so far and are likely to dominate the EI research agenda in the coming years: How to leverage information and communication technology (ICT) to (1) improve energy efficiency, and (2) to integrate decentralized renewable energy sources into the power grid. Selected EI streams are reviewed, highlighting how the respective research questions are broken down into specific research projects and how EI researchers have made contributions based on their individual academic background.     

Almost random: Evaluating a large-scale randomized nutrition program in the presence of crossover

Large-scale randomized interventions have the potential to uncover the causal effect of programs applying to a large population, thereby improving on the insights gained from currently dominant smaller randomized studies. However, the external validity gained through larger interventions typically risks deviation from the randomization protocol. This paper investigates the impact of the Nutrition Enhancement Program, which aims to improve child nutrition in Senegal. The analysis deals with deviation from the planned treatment and suggests approaches for combining ex-post adjustments such as propensity score matching with the randomized treatment plan. The authors do not detect a strong overall program impact on the outcome measure of weight-for-age based on planned treatment status, but do find an impact on the youngest children. Moreover, the project impact is clearer when the analysis considers treatment crossover using alternative estimators of two-stage least-squares and propensity score matching. The findings underscore the importance of addressing the shortcomings of large-scale randomization interventions in a systematic manner to guide further implementation of such projects, as well as to expose the true causal effect of such programs.     

A theory of corporate financial decisions with liquidity and solvency concerns

This paper studies the impact of both liquidity and solvency concerns on corporate finance. I present a tractable model of a firm that optimally chooses capital structure, cash holdings, dividends, and default while facing cash flows with long-term uncertainty and short-term liquidity shocks. The model explains how changes in solvency affect liquidity and also how liquidity concerns affect solvency via capital structure choice. These interactions result in a dynamic cash policy in which cash reserves increase in profitability and are positively correlated with cash flows. The optimal dividend distributions implied by the model are smoothed relative to cash flows. I also find that liquidity concerns lead to a decrease of dispersion of credit spreads.     

Poetic Economics and Experiential Knowledge,or How the Economist K. William Kapp Was Inspired by the Poet Ernst Wiechert

In the first part of this article, I analyze the phenomenon of the “double truth” in economics, which suppresses experiential knowledge and leads to the destruction of the natural environment, community, and human civility. Subsequently, I explore the positive effects of opening economics to the creative, esthetic, and ethical potential of experiential knowledge, including works of art. In the second part of the article, I showcase the way the economist K. William Kapp was inspired by the renowned German novelist, poet, educator, intellectual, and concentration-camp survivor Ernst Wiechert. Wiechert was Kapp’s teacher in high school, the Hufgymnasium in Königsberg, during the Weimar Republic. I investigate the unpublished and unexplored Kapp-Wiechert correspondence, as well as analyze some (published and unpublished) foreign language essays written by Kapp and his wife Lore Kapp. This analysis reveals how Kapp’s economics drew lasting inspiration from Wiechert’s art philosophy, pedagogy, novels, and poetry. This is a case study of a poetic economics that is open to experiential knowledge, which makes it more humane, edifying, serene, and sensitive to the natural and social environment.     

Macroeconomic fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean: The role of climatic and external shocks

This article develops country-specific vector autoregressive (VAR) models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output – but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. An increase in oil prices (external demand) is contractionary (expansionary), and the effects dissipate up to three years after the shock.