Impulse response analysis in a misspecified DSGE model: a comparison of full and limited information techniques

In this article, we examine the effect of estimation biases – introduced by model misspecification – on the impulse responses analysis for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Thereby, we use full and limited information estimators to estimate a misspecified DSGE model and calculate impulse response functions (IRFs) based on the estimated structural parameters. It turns out that IRFs based on full information techniques can be unreliable under misspecification.     

Designing a European unemployment insurance scheme

With disparities in national unemployment rates reaching record levels, the debate on fi scal stabilisers in Europe has gained new momentum. Can a European unemployment insurance scheme help to absorb asymmetric shocks and bring about the desired level of macroeconomic stabilisation? What should such an unemployment benefi t system look like? The contributions to this Forum explore the benefi ts expected from a European unemployment insurance scheme and discuss the diffi culties in establishing such a policy.     

The Financial Crisis and the Hegemony of Urban Neoliberalism: Lessons from Frankfurt am Main

In view of debates among critical urban scholars regarding the relationship between the current economic crisis and the stability of neoliberal hegemony on the urban scale, this article analyzes (1) the impact of the economic recession on the city of Frankfurt am Main, and (2) whether urban politics in the German financial center will witness a new phase of post‐neoliberalization. Statistical analyses of the local labor and property markets and of municipal budget trends reveal that the implications of the current crisis are relatively limited, especially when compared to the dot.com crisis in the early 2000s. Furthermore, a discourse analysis of the debates in the Frankfurt City Council between 2008 and 2010, supplemented by interviews with local political elites, shows that neoliberal hegemony remains stable and powerful regardless of the deep economic decline and a short period of uncertainty and intensive hegemonic struggles. In my analysis I focus on the power of neoliberal subjectivity and knowledge production in order to try and explain the deepening of the general consensus among local elites by demonstrating that a broad majority of actors from different political parties interprets the crisis within a neoliberal rationality.     

Fiscal Federalism and Legislative Malapportionment: Causal Evidence from Independent but Related Natural Experiments

We exploit three natural experiments in Argentina in order to study the role of legislative malapportionment on the biased federal tax sharing scheme prevalent in the country. We do not find support to attribute it to legislative malapportionment during periods when democratic governments were in place; nor did we find any evidence that the tax sharing distribution pattern became less biased under centralized military governments. We argue that these results are at least partly attributable to two of Argentina's institutional characteristics: first, the predominance of the executive branch over the legislature (main fiscal decisions are the outcome of a bargaining process among executive authorities); and, second, the lack of any significant difference in the pattern of geographic representation in the executive branch under democratic and autocratic governments. Thus, the observed biases in the distribution of tax revenues among the Argentine provinces are not caused by legislative malapportionment, but are probably the result of a more structural equilibrium that transcends the geographic distribution of legislative representation and even the nature of the political regime. Our findings illustrate the importance of informal institutions and de facto mechanisms to study fiscal federalism in developing countries.     

Identifying differences in willingness to pay due to dimensionality in stated choice experiments: a cross country analysis

This paper explores the influence of both cultural and socio-economic characteristics on the perception of complexity and cognitive load associated with stated choice (SC) experiments. Complexity is analysed in terms of five design dimensions which were systematically varied according to a macro experimental design. To study the influence of cross country differences on willingness to pay estimates, we combined datasets collected in Sydney, Santiago de Chile and Taichung city in Taiwan, all of them related to an equivalent route choice experiment. Several mixed logit models were specified and estimated; our results show that design dimensions do have an impact on the behavioural outputs of discrete choice models estimated on SC data. However, these influences seem to be data-specific, suggesting that the impact of design dimensions upon SC outcomes may be local and not necessarily transferable across different countries and cultures.     

Bemessungsgrundlage kontra Fünf-Stufen-Tarif

Die Komplexit?t des deutschen Steuersystems hat in den vergangenen Jahren immer wieder Kritik hervorgerufen und zu verschiedenen Verbesserungsvorschl?gen geführt, von denen jedoch bislang noch keiner ungesetzt wurde. Denn um eine breite politische Akzeptanz zu erlangen, müssen Reformvorschl?ge zum Steuersystem neben Transparenz und Einfachheit gleichzeitig sicherstellen, dass die Einkommensungleichheit nicht versch?rft, das Steueraufkommen insgesamt nicht zu gering wird und die Erwerbsanreize nicht gef?hrdet sind. Durch Steuervereinfachung alleine werden diese Ziele nicht per se erreicht.     

Die deutsche Investitionsschwäche: Die Mär von den Standortproblemen

Seit dem Ende des Dot-Com-Booms 2001 schw?cheln die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Investitionen in Deutschland. Immer wieder wurde dies mit der vermeintlich schwachen Profi tabilit?t von Unternehmensinvestitionen begründet, die durch angebotsorientierte Reformen verbessert werden müsse. Eine disaggregierte Betrachtung weckt allerdings Zweifel an dieser Interpretation. Einiges deutet darauf hin, dass vor allem die schwache Investitionst?tigkeit der ?ffentlichen Hand und die Schw?che beim Wohnungsbau für die Investitionsschw?che insgesamt verantwortlich waren.     

Can you trust the good guys? Trust within and between groups with different missions

Non-governmental organizations and other non-profit organizations attract workers who strongly identify themselves with their missions. We study whether these “good guys” are more trustworthy, and how such pronounced group identities affect trust and trustworthiness within the groups and towards out-groups. We find that subjects who strongly identify themselves with a non-profit mission are more trustworthy in a minimal group setting but also harshly discriminate against out-groups when subjects are grouped by the missions they identify themselves with.     

The impact of inventory dynamics on long-term stock returns – An empirical investigation of U.S. manufacturing companies

This paper investigates the relationship between the inventory dynamics and long-term stock returns of a large panel of U.S. manufacturing firms over the time period from 1991 to 2010. We propose two measures of inventory dynamics: one metric to assess the fluctuations of quarterly inventories within the year and a second metric to quantify relative year-over-year inventory growth. Our results indicate that within-year inventory volatility (IV) and abnormal year-over-year inventory growth (ABI) are associated with abnormal stock returns. Both metrics cannot be entirely explained by common risk factors. We find that firms with high IV and low ABI have the best long-term stock returns, and that stock performance decreases monotonically with higher ABI values. Our results are robust to various control variables including size, book-to-market value, industry and prior performance. We therefore conclude that changes in inventory levels provide valuable insights into the risks and opportunities faced by a company.