Market Efficiency Reloaded: Why Insider Trades do not Reveal Exploitable Information

Abstract. Several studies have emphasized a slow price adjustment to reported insider trades for Germany. The results presented in this paper, though, show that this is mainly caused by a subset of high arbitrage risk stocks. In fact, the abnormal return difference between the quintiles of stocks with highest and lowest idiosyncratic risk is in the range of 2.99–4.90% over a 20‐day interval. These results are robust even in the context of a joint generalized least squares approach. By developing a simple zero‐investment arbitrage trading strategy mimicking insider trades, it turns out that such a trading strategy, in most cases, generates significant positive returns as long as transaction costs are neglected. However, the outperformance disappears in all risk quintiles, if bid/ask spreads are taken into account. We conclude that the market's under‐reaction to reported insider trades can mainly be explained by the cost of risky arbitrage and is therefore not exploitable.     

Nach der Krise: Wirksame Regelungen auf dem Finanzmarkt?

Schon w?hrend der Krise hat auf allen politischen Ebenen eine lebhafte Diskussion über eine bessere Finanzmarktregulierung eingesetzt. Einig war man sich nur in wenigen Bereichen. Und von der Umsetzung etwaiger Reformen ist die Politik noch weit entfernt. Allerdings ist auch fraglich, ob die Ansatzpunkte überhaupt richtig gew?hlt sind.     

Politische Ökonomie der Rechnungslegung – Bisherige Forschungsergebnisse und künftige Forschungsperspektiven unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Lobbyingkonzepts

Particularly in the field of German research tradition concerning financial accounting thoughts about interpretation and development of standards are focal points. Along with the appearance of the information economics it became apparent that financial accounting is not only a technical vehicle but a social institution. By making accounting information publicly available it may have an effect on the distribution of economic income. Insofar the presumption is feasible that those players influence standard-setting whose welfare is directly affected by it. The above mentioned view that is rarely noted in the German-speaking countries is followed by the research approach so called ‘‘Political Economy of Accounting’’. Aim of this research approach is to explain the complex standard-setting process by considering the different parties within a society. The article at hand contributes to sum up state-of-the-art advancements in the field of scientific discourse concerned and provides an outlook on perspectives in this research area.     

The origins and evolution of democracy: an exercise in history from a constitutional economics approach

In this article the conditions for the rise and fall of representative regimes are explored. High citizen mobility and unexploited opportunities for investment create the need of reassuring factor owners against the tax hunger of the State. This may lead to the emergence of representative institutions of government, a process that reverts when those conditions disappear. Factors that facilitate or restrain the mobility of citizenry are identified, mainly in the domain of military technology. Thus, a number of interrelations between production and war technologies, political development and economic performance are revealed, giving rise to an interpretation of historical evolution.

The effect of international staffing practices on subsidiary staff retention in multinational corporations

This paper contributes to the scarce body of research on employee turnover in multinational corporations' foreign subsidiaries and addresses some key issues related to dealing with turnover of local staff. Based on a literature review, I conceptualize locals' perceived career prospects and their organizational identification as key variables mediating the relationship between international staffing practices and local staff turnover. In a second step, the paper develops instruments that help international firms to retain their subsidiary staff. Specifically, I focus on how international staffing practices need to be configured to ensure employee retention and I derive moderating factors. My arguments are integrated into a framework for the effect of international staffing practices on subsidiary staff retention in multinational corporations.     

On the relationship between supplier integration and time-to-market

Recent operations management and innovation management research emphasizes the importance of supplier integration. However, the empirical results as to the relationship between supplier integration and time-to-market are ambivalent. To understand this important relationship, we incorporate two major recent developments. First, the literature has started to redefine supplier integration into two dimensions, supplier product integration and supplier process integration. Second, recent research has begun to examine spillover effects that extend beyond the direct costs and benefits of the supplier contract. Using survey data of 116 firms in the industrials, health care, and information technology industries, the results confirm our hypotheses and show that supplier product integration decelerates time-to-market while supplier process integration accelerates time-to-market. The results also show a positive relationship between supplier integration and the adoption of external technologies, which either decelerates or accelerates time-to-market depending on the level of internal exploration activities. Our research, thus, helps to open the ‘black-box’ of the relationship between supplier integration and time-to-market, and provides a theoretically grounded explanation to the apparent contradictory results in prior research about the influence of supplier integration on time-to-market. In addition, we contribute to research on spillover effects by emphasizing that information technology adoption and assimilation is an important spillover effect of supplier integration.     

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Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict

Economists’ faith that variable exchange rates benevolently equilibrate has been empirically disconfirmed. That faith is here tackled at its theoretical core with an exchange rate model that although ultra abstract, includes the undeniable fundamentals of market power and differential goals of central bankers and large-scale private players. It permits a game theoretic analysis under the assumption that all agents maximize their payoffs. The paper then relaxes the assumption of maximising agents, allowing for a more complex and thus realistic second version of the model that is interpretable within SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory of risk and uncertainty. In an experimental setting, this second version of the model points to: a) the inability of agents in central banks, governments and the private real and financial sectors to operate in maximising ways; b) destructive central bank conflict; and c) the widely discrepant outcomes arising from the dynamics of individual personality differences. The paper’s theoretical and empirical findings thus both point to the merits of a single world currency.     

Nanomaterials and the Precautionary Principle in the EU

This article focuses on the risks of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, and the challenges they pose to European consumer law. These risks are exemplary for the sociological phenomenon of modern risk society, living under the condition of uncertainty with regard to the likelihood and the extent of possible negative effects. Generally, in law important functions in risk societies are fulfilled by the precautionary principle. It serves both, as a justification for state measures vis-à-vis other legal interests, especially economic human rights, and as a request for state action in response to possible risks. This paper will argue that the precautionary principle applies at least to health protection as a core part of consumer protection and basically EU law is well equipped to deal with uncertainties. This is established in case law and practice. However, although there is pressure to apply the precautionary principle to nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, the European Commission has adopted a rather modest approach. That has been criticized especially by the European Parliament. For dealing with the gap in basic research and methodology, this article suggests a burden sharing in financing taking into account both, the precautionary principle and the principle of proportionality.     

Dynamics of foreign exchange implied volatility and implied correlation surfaces

The prices of currency options expressed in terms of their implied volatilities and the implied correlations between foreign exchange rates at a given point in time depend on option delta and time to maturity. Implied volatilities and implied correlations likewise may thus be represented as a surface. It is well known that these surfaces exhibit both skew/smile features and term structure effects and their shapes fluctuate substantially over time. Using implied volatilities on three currency pairs as well as historical implied correlation values between them, we study the nature of these fluctuations by applying a Karhunen-Loève decomposition that is a generalization of a principal component analysis. We demonstrate that the largest share in the dynamics of these surfaces' fluctuations may be explained by exactly the same three factors, providing evidence of strong interdependences between implied correlation and implied volatility of global currency pairs.