国际新企业形成的影响因素研究——基于浙江四家企业的案例分析

作为国际商务研究与创业研究融合的一个新兴领域,对于国际新企业的研究已引起越来越多研究者的关注.但已有研究大多集中在发达国家.本文通过对浙江四家国际新企业进行探索性案例研究发现,由于环境和产业类型的差异,现有文献对于国际新企业成立的动机因素的研究结论不能完全运用于案例企业.笔者认为,国际新企业形成的主要影响因素包括企业生存的需要、企业家的先前经历和本地网络关系、产业的国际化程度、国内市场和政策环境等.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through in China

During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation in controlling inflation depends on the impact of exchange rate movements on import and domestic prices. Our analysis finds fairly large and speedy exchange rate pass-through （ERPT） to import prices： 50 and 60percent for the short run and long run, respectively. However, the degree of ERPT decreases along the price chain from upstream to downstream prices. ERPT for consumer prices, the most downstream prices, is much milder and has substantial lags. A 10-percent rise in the nominal effective exchange rate will dampen consumer prices by 1.1 percent within a year, with very little pass-through in the first half year, and by 2.0percent over the long run. These findings, particularly the ERPT to consumer prices, suggest that RMB appreciation can help to reduce inflationary pressures over the longer term. However, it is unlikely to provide rapid relief to the current round of high inflation because of the long lags in ERPZ. The RMB needs to strengthen in effective terms to exert the desired dampening impact on prices.     

当前金融危机研究中的几个理论误区

国际金融危机席卷全球,我国理论界对此次国际金融危机的成因、影响及对策等方面进行了深入研究。从现有的研究成果看,许多研究观点陷入一些理论误区。如,金融衍生品概念混淆、金融危机的成因表面化、监管作用夸大化、误读英美国家的"国有化"及所谓的"阴谋论"等,需要给予澄清。     

Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities

This paper studies how the effect of trade openness on economic growth may depend on complementary reforms that help a country take advantage of international competition. This issue is illustrated with a simple Harris–Todaro model where welfare gains after trade openness depend on the degree of labor market flexibility. The paper then presents cross-country, panel-data evidence on how the growth effect of openness may depend on a variety of structural characteristics. For this purpose, the empirical section uses a non-linear growth regression specification that interacts a proxy of trade openness with proxies of educational investment, financial depth, inflation stabilization, public infrastructure, governance, labor market flexibility, ease of firm entry, and ease of firm exit. The paper concludes that the growth effects of openness may be significantly improved if certain complementary reforms are undertaken.     

有限理性地方政府之间的引资博弈分析

引进外贵促进本地经济发展一直是我国各级地方政府的工作重点之一.外资始终是稀缺的,为获得更多的外资流入本地区,各地方政府之间不可避免地展开了有形或无形的招商引资博弈.在我国现行的地方政府政绩考核指标体系下,地方政府官员的经济人行为导致了地方政府的有限理性,进而导致其引资博弈动机与行为的扭曲,以外资优惠政策为主导的引资博弈策略往往造成地区社会福利的净损失.基于对有限理性地方政府目标函教的创新与分析,本文采用博弈模型详细演绎了有限理性地方政府引资博弈的动机、行为与后果,从中得出问题的症结及改进思路.     

Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model

The predictability of stock return dynamics is a topic discussed most frequently in empirical studies; however, no unanimous conclusion has yet been reached due to the ignorance of structural changes in stock price dynamics. This study applies various regime switching GJR-GARCH models to analyze the effects of macroeconomic variables (interest rate, dividend yield, and default premium) on stock return movements (including conditional mean, conditional variance, and transition probabilities) in the U.S. stock market, so as to clearly compare the predictive validity of stable and volatile states, as well as compare the in-sample and out-of-sample portfolio performance of regime switching models. The empirical results show that macro factors can affect the stock return dynamics through two different channels, and that the magnitude of their influences on returns and volatility is not constant. The effects of the three economic variables on returns are not time-invariant, but are closely related to stock market fluctuations, and the strength of predictability in a volatile regime is far greater than that in a stable regime. It is found that interest rate and dividend yield seem to play an important role in predicting conditional variance, and out-of-sample performance is largely eroded when the effects of these two factors on volatility are ignored. In addition, the three macro factors do not play any role in predicting transition probabilities.     

GSM无源探测中基于空域宽零陷的DPI抑制新算法

强直达波干扰（DPI）抑制是GSM无源探测系统中的首要问题。根 据系统中DPI与目标回波的特征差异,提出了一种新的宽零陷空域DPI抑制算法。该算法基于 干扰和回波的DOA信息,采用改进的最小约束最小方差准则来实现特定方位上的空域滤波, 能够在对目标回波进行波束赋形的同时有效抑制DPI。仿真结果表明,该算法能获得不低于5 5 dB的抑制增益。     

中国居民消费的特点、影响因素以及发展趋势分析

本文采用西方相关文献分析消费问题,首先讨论中国居民的消费概况,然后用凯恩斯理论分析中国人高储蓄率、低消费率的原因,探讨消费信贷在中国的发展,并且对中国私人消费的发展趋势作出客观预测。     

企业家制度创业行为过程——基于吉利与绿源的案例分析

以吉利汽车和绿源电动车为研究对象,采用案例研究方法,分析企业家的制度创业行为过程。研究结果表明:企业家的制度创业行为过程包括构建变革使命、宣传变革使命、动员资源建立联盟以实施变革;在此过程中,企业家运用不同策略实现各环节的活动,最终达到制度创业的目标。     

中国城市养老机构的兴起:发展与公平问题

利用2009-2010年在南京市和天津市对养老机构的调查数据,描述了养老机构在两市的发展态势,比较了公办和民办机构在入住老人的健康状况及机构特征方面的差异。近10年来养老机构在两市迅猛增长,且以民办机构为主导。政府财政投入在两市公办机构的日常收入来源中占了相当的比重,而对民办机构的财政补贴则微乎其微。公办机构平均规模较大,在入住率上也远超民办机构。两市公办机构入住老人比民办机构入住老人在总体上更健康。公办机构在决定收住对象时比民办机构有更强的选择性。公众在享有现存养老机构资源时面临着机会不平等的问题。政府应确保在公办机构中公平、合理地分配公共服务资源,以最大程度地彰显其公益性,同时也应着力扶持民办机构,促进二者在社会化养老服务中公平竞争、协调发展。