Testing for non-nested conditional moment restrictions using unconditional empirical likelihood

We propose non-nested hypothesis tests for conditional moment restriction models based on the method of generalized empirical likelihood (GEL). By utilizing the implied GEL probabilities from a sequence of unconditional moment restrictions that contains equivalent information of the conditional moment restrictions, we construct Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von Mises type moment encompassing tests. Advantages of our tests over Otsu and Whang’s (2011) tests are: (i) they are free from smoothing parameters, (ii) they can be applied to weakly dependent data, and (iii) they allow non-smooth moment functions. We derive the null distributions, validity of a bootstrap procedure, and local and global power properties of our tests. The simulation results show that our tests have reasonable size and power performance in finite samples.     

Menu theorems for bilateral contracting

This paper studies bilateral contracting where multiple principals negotiate contracts with multiple agents independently. It is shown that pure-strategy equilibrium allocations relative to any ad hoc set of feasible mechanisms are supported by pure-strategy perfect Bayesian equilibria relative to the set of menus. This paper also shows that all equilibrium allocations to any ad hoc set of feasible mechanisms are supported by correlated equilibria relative to the set of menus, where a state is a probability distribution function over payoff-relevant variables. Furthermore, all equilibrium allocations relative to the set of menus persist even if principals use more complex mechanisms.     

Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance under General Sampling Schemes

We propose a procedure for estimating the critical values of the extended Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests of Stochastic Dominance of arbitrary order in the general  K  -prospect case. We allow for the observations to be serially dependent and, for the first time, we can accommodate general dependence amongst the prospects which are to be ranked. Also, the prospects may be the residuals from certain conditional models, opening the way for conditional ranking. We also propose a test of Prospect Stochastic Dominance. Our method is based on subsampling and we show that the resulting tests are consistent and powerful against some  N^−1/2  local alternatives. We also propose some heuristic methods for selecting subsample size and demonstrate in simulations that they perform reasonably. We describe an alternative method for obtaining critical values based on recentring the test statistic and using full-sample bootstrap methods. We compare the two methods in theory and in practice.     

A bargaining model of tax competition

This paper develops a model in which competing governments offer financial incentives to induce individual firms to locate within their jurisdictions. Equilibrium is described under three specifications of the supplementary taxes. There is no misallocation of capital under two of these specifications, and there might or might not be capital misallocation under the third. This result contrasts strongly with that of the standard tax competition model, which does not allow governments to treat firms individually. That model finds that competition among governments almost always leads to capital misallocation.     

Random walk or chaos: A formal test on the Lyapunov exponent

A formal test on the Lyapunov exponent is developed to distinguish a random walk model from a chaotic system, which is based on the Nadaraya–Watson kernel estimator of the Lyapunov exponent. The asymptotic null distribution of our test statistic is free of nuisance parameter, and simply given by the range of standard Brownian motion on the unit interval. The test is consistent against the chaotic alternatives. A simulation study shows that the test performs reasonably well in finite samples. We apply our test to some of the standard macro and financial time series, finding no significant empirical evidence of chaos.     

Are there Monday effects in stock returns: A stochastic dominance approach

We provide a test of the Monday effect in daily stock index returns. Unlike previous studies we define the Monday effect based on the stochastic dominance criterion. This is a stronger criterion than those based on comparing means used in previous work and has a well defined economic meaning. We apply our test to a number of stock indexes including US large caps and small caps as well as UK and Japanese indexes. We find strong evidence of a Monday effect in many cases under this stronger criterion. The effect has reversed or weakened in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes post 1987, but is still strong in more broadly based indexes like the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 and the CRSP.     

Structural Transformation and Comparative Advantage: Implications for Small Open Economies

Data from the last half‐century show that revealed comparative advantage in agriculture (manufacturing) is negatively (positively) associated with the rate of decline in labour share in agriculture. Motivated by this finding, the author constructs and calibrates a simple open‐economy model, where there is learning‐by‐doing in manufacturing and industry‐supplied inputs to agricultural production. This paper focuses on the effects of comparative advantage and learning‐by‐doing on structural transformation and calibrate the model to the US and the UK data to estimate key parameters of the model. Quantitative experiments show that holding constant other factors a small difference in a country's comparative advantage can account for a large variation in structural transformation for open economies, which does not require nearly as much differential productivity growth as in closed‐economy models.