Usefulness of fair values for predicting banks’ future earnings: evidence from other comprehensive income and its components

This paper examines whether fair value adjustments included in other comprehensive income (OCI) predict future bank performance. It also examines whether the reliability of these estimates affects their predictive value. Using a sample of bank holding companies, we find that fair value adjustments included in OCI can predict earnings both 1 and 2 years ahead. However, not all fair value-related unrealized gains and losses included in OCI have similar implications. While net unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale securities are positively associated with future earnings, net unrealized gains and losses on derivative contracts classified as cash flow hedges are negatively associated with future earnings. We also find that reliable measurement of fair values enhances predictive value. Finally, we show that fair value adjustments recorded in OCI during the 2007–2009 financial crisis predicted future profitability, contradicting criticism that fair value accounting forced banks to record excessive downward adjustments.     

Human resource management in Chinese multinationals in the United Kingdom: The interplay of institutions,culture, and strategic choice

This is a study of the challenges faced by Chinese expatriate managers and their strategic responses in securing a workable degree of alignment in UK subsidiaries, against a backdrop of competing home‐country and host‐country pressures. Although much of the literature on home‐country and host‐country effects tends to either adopt a culture or an institutional approach, this study highlights the intermeshed nature of the two. In locating cultural dynamics within an institutional firmament, this study juxtaposes the effects of each and draws conclusions as to their intersection. It is founded on in‐depth interviews with home‐country and host‐country managers. The findings suggest, on the one hand, Chinese expatriate managers tended to see local regulations as an obstacle to efficiency, rather than as a means to access context‐specific complementarities. On the other hand, these managers recognized the need to fit in with established locally specific ways of doing things and in securing sufficient staff buy in to sustain operations, and played a key intermediary role between headquarters and subsidiary.     

Mutual fund flows and investors’ expectations in BRICS economies: Implications for international diversification

This paper empirically examines the relationship between different classes of mutual funds, measures of investors’ expectations and business cycle movements in the BRICS markets over the 1996Q1-2017Q3 period. Applying the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model in a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) setting, the results suggest a strong causal relationship between mutual fund flows and measures of investors’ future expectations. In particular, fund flows are forward-looking and assist in forecasting real economic conditions. Moreover, investors choose to invest in riskier funds when economic conditions are good, while they prefer safer options in poor economic situations. These findings have important implications for international diversification.     

Consumer's Perception of Website Service Quality: An Empirical Study

With the increasing penetration of the Internet, service quality has become one of the key areas of concern for online shopping sites. Website service quality has become a vital factor in making e-commerce successful because comparing the features of products in the online environment is easier, practically free of cost, and saves on time in comparison to conventional offline markets. To empirically explore the critical factors that determine perceptions of the service quality of online shopping sites, researchers adopted the eTailQ scale suggested by Wolfinbarger and Gilly (2003 Wolfinbarger, M., and M. C. Gilly. 2003. eTailQ: dimensionalizing, measuring and predicting etail quality. Journal of retailing 79 (3):183–98. doi:10.1016/s0022-4359(03)00034-4.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Web layout, web info, customer service, fulfillment, and privacy emerged as the critical factors affecting website service quality. Findings of the study are expected to provide valuable insights to academicians in better conceptualizing the constructs and also help marketing practitioners in fine-tuning their strategies by addressing the peculiar needs of the Indian online shoppers.     

SEMI‐PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF PROGRAM IMPACTS ON DISPERSION OF POTENTIAL WAGES

We propose the use of instrumental variables and pairwise matching to identify the average treatment effect on variance in potential outcomes. We show that identifying and estimating program impact on dispersion of potential outcomes in an endogenous‐switching model is possible, without using the identification‐at‐infinity argument, if we impose semi‐parametric conditions or shape restrictions on the error structure. In the presence of a multi‐valued or continuously distributed instrument, we recommend the pairwise‐matching method under a set of symmetry conditions. Simulations and an empirical example show that the matching method is much more precise than the instrumental‐variable approach. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of training in reducing poverty: the case of the ultra‐poor in Bangladesh

Although microcredit is considered the main vehicle for increasing the income of the poor and alleviating poverty in Bangladesh, it is now well recognised that more than this is needed to reach the ultra poor in rural areas. Consequently, almost half of the Bangladesh population is in some way linked to non‐governmental organizations' development programmes, at the centre of which is poverty alleviation. The study reported here developed a comprehensive cross‐sectional intervention to examine whether the income of those who participated in the training programmes of non‐governmental organizations was related to that participation. The study was carried out in three leading organizations in three districts of Bangladesh using a quantitative associational research design. Three hundred responses were analysed using multiple regression analysis to elicit information from ultra poor clients who had received training. The results suggest that the post‐training income level of the trainees was negatively rather than positively related to the fact of their participation in training, the opposite of what human capital theory would lead us to expect.     

A study of employee affective organizational commitment and retention in Pakistan: the roles of psychological contract breach and norms of reciprocity

Abstract

Social exchange theory and notions of reciprocity have long been assumed to explain the relationship between psychological contract breach and important employee outcomes. To date, however, there has been no explicit testing of these assumptions. This research, therefore, explores the mediating role of negative, generalized, and balanced reciprocity, in the relationships between psychological contract breach and employees’ affective organizational commitment and turnover intentions. A survey of 247 Pakistani employees of a large public university was analyzed using structural equation modeling and bootstrapping techniques, and provided excellent support for our model. As predicted, psychological contract breach was positively related to negative reciprocity norms and negatively related to generalized and balanced reciprocity norms. Negative and generalized (but not balanced) reciprocity were negatively and positively (respectively) related to employees’ affective organizational commitment and fully mediated the relationship between psychological contract breach and affective organizational commitment. Moreover, affective organizational commitment fully mediated the relationship between generalized and negative reciprocity and employees’ turnover intentions. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

A quantitative reassessment of the finance–growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR

The long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth is examined in a multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) framework using 10 sample countries. Difficulties surrounding the cross-country regressions and bivariate time series studies are outlined. The long-run financial development and output relationships are identified in a cointegrating framework through tests of over-identifying restrictions. We find bi-directional causality between financial development and economic growth in all the sample countries, conclusions that stand distinct from those in the existing empirical literature. We attribute our findings to: (i) analysis of a higher dimensional system, (ii) a new method of identifying the long-run economic relationships, and (iii) a new approach to long-run causality testing.     

Free trade and the environment

In this essay I examine the impact of ‘free’ international commodity markets and ‘free’ national factor markets on environmental quality in the context of a ‘small’ country committed to Lindahl taxation of environmental degradation. The ‘gains from trade’ proposition, as well as GATT Article XX, serve as the backdrop for my analysis.