TRANSFORM ANALYSIS FOR POINT PROCESSES AND APPLICATIONS IN CREDIT RISK

This paper develops a formula for a transform of a vector point process with totally inaccessible arrivals. The transform is expressed in terms of a Laplace transform under an equivalent probability measure of the point process compensator. The Laplace transform of the compensator can be calculated explicitly for a wide range of model specifications, because it is analogous to the value of a simple security. The transform formula extends the computational tractability offered by extant security pricing models to a point process and its applications, which include valuation and risk management problems arising in single‐name and portfolio credit risk.     

Macroeconomic effects of corporate default crisis: A long-term perspective

Using an extensive data set on corporate bond defaults in the US from 1866 to 2010, we study the macroeconomic effects of bond market crises and contrast them with those resulting from banking crises. During the past 150 years, the US has experienced many severe corporate default crises in which 20–50% of all corporate bonds defaulted. Although the total par amount of corporate bonds has at times rivaled the amount of bank loans outstanding, we find that corporate default crises have far fewer real effects than do banking crises. These results provide empirical support for current theories that emphasize the unique role that banks and the credit and collateral channels play in amplifying macroeconomic shocks.     

Violence against women and new venture initiation with microcredit: Self-efficacy,fear of failure,and disaster experiences

Domestic violence is the most prevalent form of gender-based violence that threatens the wellbeing and dignity of women. In this paper, we examine whether and how exposure to physical or sexual assault by male partners influences women's decision to initiate a new business when they have access to financing. We collected primary data from rural Bangladesh in collaboration with a microfinance institution that provided small collateral-free loans to a group of married women. We conducted a baseline survey before loan disbursement and then conducted a follow-up survey 12 to 15 months later to collect information on loan usage. We find that women who experienced physical or sexual violence by their husband before receiving a loan are less likely to initiate a new business with their loan than those who did not experience such violence. Exposure to domestic violence obstructs the initiation of new businesses through reduced entrepreneurial self-efficacy and increased fear of business failure. The adverse impact of domestic violence is more detrimental for women who recently experienced another potentially traumatic event—an environmental disaster—than for those without such an experience.     

Linkages between poverty and income inequality of urban–rural sector: a time series analysis of India’s urban-based aspirations from 1951 to 1994

This study examines the impact of urban and rural development on poverty and inequality in India before economic reform. The methodology comprises two dimensions. Modern time series methods are used to uncover the dynamic patterns of urban–rural poverty and income inequality. A machine-learning algorithm is used to determine the causal structure among the development indicators. Our results show that reductions in rural poverty appear to be a more effective in reducing both urban and rural poverty, although the costs of achieving these reductions have not been considered.     

Effects of tuition discounting on university’s financial performance

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We study how tuition discounting affects the financial decisions of universities, their student recruitment, and reputation. Using a large panel data...     

Cash cycle: A cross-country analysis

We study the cross-country differences in the cash cycles of companies and find a negative relation between a country's development and the cash cycles of its corporations. The ability of companies to obtain raw materials on credit and to better manage inventory plays significant roles in shortening the cash cycle. Various country-specific factors affect cash cycles. Firms with shorter cash cycles invest more in R&D and participate in more acquisitions. They also have a higher valuation and lower leverage. Overall, our findings indicate a close relation between a company's working capital management, its valuation, and the country's level of development.     

A general framework for measuring VAT compliance rates

Summary measures of Value Added Tax (VAT) compliance rates are valuable for identifying problem areas in VAT implementation. They are also essential for meaningful crosscountry and crosstime comparisons of VAT compliance. We present a comprehensive and general framework for calculating VAT compliance rates at both the economy wide and detailed sectoral levels. Unlike existing measures of VAT compliance, our framework isolates a compliance measure from the effects on VAT receipts of detailed features of VAT systems as actually implemented by tax authorities. These features include multiple VAT rates, exemptions, registration rates, refund limitations, informal activity, taxation of domestic nonresidents and undeclared imports. We implement our comprehensive VAT compliance measure for Vietnam, a country with a complex VAT system. Our estimate of Vietnam's VAT compliance rate is about 13 percentage points higher than that calculated by the most popular measure of compliance, Collection Efficiency (CE). Our method facilitates decomposition of the difference between CE and our VAT compliance measure into individual contributions by the statutory and structural features of Vietnam's VAT regime.     

Group Identity and the Moral Hazard Problem: Experimental Evidence

We experimentally examine how real group identity of parties (a principal and an agent) facing a moral hazard problem may attenuate the problem and thereby implement the efficient outcome. We find that, the frequency of the efficient outcome is significantly higher when both parties share the same identity than when they do not. However, when we induce a substantially weaker form of identity or increase an outside‐option payoff offered to the principal, the frequency of the efficient outcome diminishes considerably, even when the parties’ identities align perfectly. Our results have important implications for the design of nonpecuniary contract enforcement devices.     

LARGE PORTFOLIO ASYMPTOTICS FOR LOSS FROM DEFAULT

We prove a law of large numbers for the loss from default and use it for approximating the distribution of the loss from default in large, potentially heterogeneous portfolios. The density of the limiting measure is shown to solve a nonlinear stochastic partial differential equation, and certain moments of the limiting measure are shown to satisfy an infinite system of stochastic differential equations. The solution to this system leads to the distribution of the limiting portfolio loss, which we propose as an approximation to the loss distribution for a large portfolio. Numerical tests illustrate the accuracy of the approximation, and highlight its computational advantages over a direct Monte Carlo simulation of the original stochastic system.     

Targeting Regional Output with State Government Fiscal Instruments: a Dynamic Multi-regional CGE Analysis

Between 1986/87 and 1998/99, Tasmania's share of national output declined from approximately 2.3 per cent to 1.9 per cent. At least two forecasters have projected that Tasmania's share of national activity will continue to decline over the period 1999/00 to 2003/04, falling to 1.7 per cent of national activity by the end of this period. This paper investigates whether it is within the power of the Tasmanian government to influence materially this forecast outcome by means of a budget neutral tax policy. Two such policy packages are investigated using a dynamic two-region CGE model of the Australian economy (FEDERAL-F). In the first, the question asked is whether there exists a feasible re-arrangement of the Tasmanian government's revenue raising effort which has the effect of maintaining, over the forecast period, Tasmania's share of national GDP at its 1998/99 level. This is found not to be so. Hence, a second and (comparatively) less ambitious policy is then considered. This involves the gradual but complete elimination of payroll tax over the forecast period, and its replacement with a direct tax on households. Even when such a dramatic tax change as this is considered, the impact on the forecast for Tasmania's share of national activity is not large.