美国征信替代数据的应用与启示

现代化征信体系下,作为传统信用信息有益补充的新型生产要素,替代数据在征信支持普惠金融发展方面取得了显著成效,但准确认定并妥善治理替代数据的问题亟待解决.通过分析美国替代数据对信用评分制度的修正路径,对我国替代数据发展提出加强顶层设计、注重隐私保护、明确采集原则和方式、形成多方共治格局等建议.     

数字金融、家庭财富与共同富裕

文章使用2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证研究了数字金融对家庭财富积累、财富不平等的影响。研究发现:(1)在考虑了内生性问题的影响后,数字金融能够显著促进家庭财富积累,经过使用多种方法进行稳健性检验,该结论依然成立。(2)创业和配置风险金融资产是数字金融影响家庭财富的重要渠道。(3)财富规模越小的家庭,使用数字金融产生的创富作用越大,并且老年人、低教育程度、低收入水平、农业户口群体家庭和农村居民家庭使用数字金融能够产生更大的创富作用。总的来说,财富是富裕的题中之义,数字金融能够在提升家庭财富总体水平的基础上缓解财富不平等,从而有利于实现共同富裕。文章的研究发现为推动共同富裕提供了政策参考依据。     

Ride the trend: Is there spread momentum profit in the US commodity markets?

Some previous researchers have argued that trading strategies based on calendar spread time series momentum (STSM) can deliver significant returns (Szymanowska et al. 2014; Boons and Prado 2019), which, if true, is at odds with the efficient market hypothesis. These arguments however, do not exclude the unrealisable futures contract roll yield and are also affected by other empirical and statistical issues that may lead to misleading results. With more than 30 years of data, we investigate STSM in 22 US commodity futures markets. First, we assess whether past spread returns can predict future returns, a necessary condition for the existence of momentum. We find predictability to be very weak after correcting for the issues affecting prior research. Second, we implement STSM-based investment strategies. We compare STSM profits for individual markets and portfolios to profits generated by a simple long-only benchmark strategy that does not require any predictability. STSM does not generate returns statistically different from the benchmark trading strategy, with both strategies generating very low or negative returns. For the momentum to outperform the benchmark strategy, predictability should be three times larger than observed from real data, but would entail substantial downside risk. In sum, the empirical evidence indicates that returns from STSM-type strategies are illusive for the commodities and period studied. Our results strongly suggest that inclusion of unrealisable roll yield generates the illusion of profitable STSM trading strategies in previous research.     

构建邮政储蓄银行小额贷款拖欠管理体系的思考

目前各地邮政储蓄银行小额贷款业务发展迅猛，但也不同程度地存在着贷款拖欠问题。文章认为贷款拖欠主要是管理问题，并分析了邮政储蓄银行小额贷款业务发生拖欠的原因，探讨了邮政储蓄银行有效管理贷款拖欠问题的对策。