Inflation and stabilization in Argentina

This paper reports the results of simulation experiments which were conducted by using a CGE model of Argentina. The results suggest that: the economy could not have been stabilized by using the preannounced devaluation rate during 1978-81; economic performance could have improved in 1985-89 under a modified Austral plan but, with the altered structure, there would still be a severe currency appreciation; and the Convertibility Law based programme is very successful in arresting inflation and eliminating a budget deficit, though it is not free from side effects such as money supply shortages and high interest rates.     

INTER-OCCUPATION DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN OF MONETIZED AND NON-MONETIZED CONSUMER EXPENDITURE IN RURAL INDIA*

This study attempts to examine the inter-occupational differences in the patterns of cash and in-kind expenditure in rural India on the basis of a special tabulation of The National Sample Survey (NSS), 18th round (February 1963-January 1964) consumer expenditure data. The occupational groups considered here are (i) cultivators, (ii) agricultural labourers, (iii) other agriculture, and (iv) non-agricultural occupations. The analysis is carried out primarily in terms of curves relating item-specific cash/kind expenditure to total cash/total kind expenditure for fifteen selected item-groups of expenditure. For each item-occupation combination, four two-parameter forms of Engel curve together with the log-log-inverse form are estimated and the comparisons across occupation groups are made separately on the basis of each of the two-parameter curve forms which were found to give the best fit for at least one occupation group as well as the log-log-inverse form, using analysis of covariance technique. The results indicate that so far as the cash components of item expenditures are concerned, the pattern of expenditure is considerably influenced by occupational factors. It is observed that cultivators have a cash expenditure pattern different from those of agrictural labourers and of households with non-agricultural activities. The comparison of the kind expenditure patterns does not, however, reflect any clear picture primarily because in most cases the itemwise kind expenditure functions could not be estimated satisfactorily. This analysis also suggests that the specification of itemwise cash and kind expenditure functions employed here may not be the most satisfactory ones in an economy with a high degree of non-monetization and therefore alternative specifications need be examined.     

Productivity of Agricultural Labour and Land: An International Comparison

This paper examines partial agricultural land and labour productivity in 1975 and 1980, for different world regions. The results suggest that land and labour productivity are higher in developed countries relative to developing countries. However, agricultural labour productivity differences are more marked than those for agricultural land productivity. The productivity values for 1975 and 1980 indicate a widening of productivity differences, more so in the case of agricultural labour than land. The paper also proposes an alternative approach to estimating agricultural land and labour productivity. This approach, which regresses agricultural labour productivity on a given level of agricultural land productivity, suggests a narrowing of agricultural land productivity differences, relative to the initial approach, across Africa, Asia and Europe during the 1975-1980 period. A brief discussion of the agricultural development policy implications of the results concludes the paper.     

A note on the unbiasedness of Swamy's estimator for the random coefficient regression model

In this note the estimator proposed by Swamy (1970) for the random coefficient regression model is proved to be unbiased under fairly general conditions. In addition, the conditions under which the mean of the estimator exists are derived.     

A new approach to public investment

Public investment decisions are usually based on multiple objective criteria. In this paper, Optimal Investment Decision Problem is formulated as a Multicriterion Optimal Control Problem. Apart from accounting for the multiple objectives, the dynamics of the economic system can also be incorporated in this formulation. Some techniques of solving these problems are discussed and trade-off schemes for the various objectives are suggested through the associated shadow prices.     

Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks

Time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 11 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for which consistent quarterly data are available. The effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub-samples. Our results for the post-reform sub-samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased.     

The growth effects of education in Australia

In this article, we estimate the growth effect of human capital with country-specific time series data for Australia. In doing so, we extended the Solow (1956) growth model by using educational attainment as a measure of human capital developed by Barro and Lee (2010). The extended Solow (1956) model performs well after allowing for the presence of structural changes. Our results, based on alternative time series methods, show that educational attainment has a small and significant permanent effect on the growth rate of per worker output in Australia.     

当前流动性管理两难背景下对存款准备金制度的再审视

在金融市场短期流动性吃紧与长期流动性过剩的复杂背景下,中央银行对存款准备金货币工具的运用应更为审慎.以往的存款准备金制度对货币供应量的调控具有一定的效果,但信贷的扩张和资本市场的活跃使得存款准备金对冲流动性的有效性受到极大冲击.在当前流动性管理两难背景下审视我国存款准备金法律制度,不难发现其仍存在一些亟需克服的缺陷.本文从剖析存款准备金制度的价值目标为逻辑起点,审视与反思制度的缺陷,尝试选择重构路径以完善我国存款准备金法律制度.