房地产宏观调控的政策效应研究

本文用两步多变量回归方法检验了我国2002—2008年房地产宏观调控政策的效果。总的来说,调控政策能够产生比较明显的市场反应;当政策传递出抑制房地产业的信号时,产生显著为负的市场反应;当政策传递出引导房地产市场发展的信号时,产生显著为正的市场反应;市场反应为正或负的政策对房地产市场的影响程度总体上没有显著差异。研究还表明,政策频发能够取得较好的调控效果,但过分密集的政策会因为和前次政策间隔时间过短而使政策效应受阻。     

论企业人力资本投资风险

一、人力资本的内涵界定人力资本(HumanCapital)的涵义可从内容和形成两个方面去界定。从内容角度去界定人力资本涵义的学者比较关注人力资本的所包涵内容,认为人力资本是劳动者所拥有的知识、技能、体力或健康及其所表现出的劳动能力等的总和,是经济增长的主要因素,其主要代表     

A customized market response model: Development,estimation, and empirical testing

A customized, stepwise, log-linear, distributed lag, restricted market response model is proposed to estimate the effects of various elements of promotion expenditures on sales in the presence of potentially significant effects due to trend and/or seasonality when using time-series data. As distinct from standardized software packages, the customization offers management several benefits: (a) an (optional) imposition of prior restrictions on the directions of the coefficient variables; (b) an empirical determination of the lag structure for selected variables; (c) the detrending of the data to allow for the assessment of incremental marketing mix effects above trend; and (d) a simplified sensitivity analysis. The model is empirically tested and validated using sales data for a brand where the impact of several marketing mix variables is estimated and investigated via policy simulations. A comparison of these results with those obtained from a corresponding unrestricted model illustrates the advantages of this approach. Finally, the limitations of this procedure and directions for future research are discussed.     

Impact of foreign prices and interest rates on canadian economy under alternative monetary and exchange rate regimes

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of U.S. short- and long-term monetary policy under both flexible and managed floating systems, using the new CANDIDE Model 2.0. We have also examined the role of domestic monetary policy in the Canadian economy under both fixed and flexible exchange rate systems. The following are some of the important findings of our study:

1. Our results support the traditional view that under the fixed exchange rate regime, monetary authorities cannot successfully pursue an independent monetary policy from its trading partners — an effort to increase money supply will be almost offset by increases in the balance of payments deficit. In contrast, in the flexible exchange rate regime, monetary policy is more effective in producing an increased growth in output and employment. However the increased output growth comes at the cost of higher prices induced by increased wages and a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
2. Our results suggest that the impact of U.S. interest rates on investment, GNE, employment, productivity, and government debt is less severe in a pure floating exchange rate regime, compared to the managed floating system. However, the impact of U.S. interest rate policy on the Canadian inflation rate is worse in the case of flexible exchange rate regime. Even though real income and inflation are less favourable in both cases, our results indicate a trade-off between output growth and inflation.
3. Our results imply that under a pure floating monetary authorities can determine the long-run rate of inflation in Canada independent of others. However, the United States and Canadian economies are interrelated during the adjustment process, even under the flexible exchange rates, through the terms of trade and the wage-price spiral channels.

     

Modeling inflation-induced adaptive behaviors

Predicting consumers' responses to inflationary pressures has been a dominant research area in psychology, economics, and marketing. The present study attempts to model consumers' inflation-induced adaptive behavior using demographic, shopping patterns, and attitudes as predictors. Also, the present study is not limited to purchase behaviors. Rather, inflation-induced adaptive behaviors are examined for the purchase, preparation, and consumption of necessity goods (food items) involving a relatively low expenditure per purchase but a relatively high annual expenditure.     

Fiat money in the Kiyotaki-Wright model

Summary We study versions of the Kiyotaki-Wright (1989) model with fiat money and show that: (1) The use of a low storage cost fiat money may be necessary for specialization and trade, (2) there can be valued fiat money steady states which are indeterminate, (3) there are no nontrivial steady-states in which all trades consist of fiat money for goods, (4) fiat money may be valued even if it is not the least costly-to-store object, and lastly, (5) two fiat monies with different storage costs may both be valued.We thank Randall Wright for comments and helpful discussions.The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.     

The effect of non-convertible preferred stock retirement on shareholder wealth

In this paper the authors examine the common stock price behavior of firms that call their non-convertible preferred stock. The findings for the entire sample of preferred stock calls are consistent with the Modigliani and Miller (MM) leverage hypothesis that preferred stock financing adds no value to the firm. However, for those firms whose preferred stock was completely eliminated from the capital structure, a significant, positive announcement effect is observed. This finding is consistent with an information signaling effect related to the earnings prospects and tax status of the calling firms and also is suggestive of a burdensome covenant effect. No evidence is found to support the free cash flow theory of common stock price reactions to preferred stock calls.     

Equilibrium pricing and advertising strategies for nondurable experience products in a dynamic duopoly

The quality of many consumer nondurable goods or services is sufficiently complex or obscure that consumers cannot completely verify the true quality in a single usage. For such ‘experience’ products or services, the accumulated consumer consumption experience of a brand is an important determinant of its sales or market share. The market share of a brand is in turn directly influenced by its own and the competitive price and advertising strategies, given the different levels of quality (among other factors). In this paper, we investigate the impact of the aggregate consumption experience on the firm's dynamic pricing and advertising strategies by developing a formal game-theoretic model of a dynamic duopoly. The model of competition does not yield explicit closed-form expressions for the dynamic price and advertising paths of the two firms. Hence, we simulate the equilibrium paths using a discrete-time algorithm. Our simulation results provide interesting insights into the dynamic equilibrium price and advertising paths, under a variety of realistic competitive scenarios.     

Why Are Royalty Rates Higher in Service-type Franchises?

Royalty payments from a franchisee to a franchisor serve as incentive for the franchisor to provide appropriate levels of quality and brand, name investment. However, since they also distort the service provided by the franchisee, we should expect relatively lower royalty rates in franchises that are primarily service-oriented. Casual examination of royalty rates across product-oriented and service-oriented franchises shows that the opposite is true, with service-type franchises enjoying higher royalty rates. We resolve this apparent puzzle. The basic argument we put forth is that in product-type franchises, a franchisor can charge a wholesale price on goods transferred to the franchisee, thus using an alternative instrument that also serves as an incentive for the franchisor. Moreover, in general, a franchisor will use both wholesale price and royalty to minimize distortions in retail price and service at the retail level. We then test the predictions of our model on different industries and find confirmation for the same.