The Effects of Oil Price on the Korean Economy: A Global VAR Approach

This article empirically explores the effects of oil price on the Korean economy using a Global VAR model. First, we evaluate the average connectedness of oil price with the Korean domestic variables over the precrisis period. We then investigate the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean financial and real sectors during and after the global financial crisis through recursive estimation. It is found that the contribution of oil price becomes very large in the case of real exports, equity prices, and real output, but plays a much less prevalent role in the remaining cases. In the meantime, the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean economy has not changed during and after the global financial crisis. Interestingly, we find that the Korean economy is affected mostly by overseas financial conditions in the short-term but it becomes more susceptible to oil price fluctuations in the long run, suggesting that Korea’s reliance on energy imports leaves the economy exposed to volatility in energy prices.     

Discovery,invention and serendipity

This paper attempts to relate serendipity, the natural ability to make interesting or valuable discoveries by accident （Longman Discovery of Contemporary English） with notable discoveries and inventions. It connotes the profound ability of finding out valuable things different from those who have been exploring by spending a lot of time or for years. The author will illustrate as many cases as possible within a given time constraint, so that surrounding environments and situations may be clarified, and such discoveries and inventions may be plausibly accomplished by accident or with rich reasons. These illustrations include historical as well as more recent cases. One of the cases is beyond the scope of our environment on the earth with preconceived notion, while other cases have given great impacts to our politics and also military intelligence. It should be noted that business and technological intelligence are deeply connected with discoveries, inventions and serendipity. In concluding remarks, the essence of serendipity will be summarized and how to side with the serendipity at the most important moment will be examined by viewing time series endeavors of the inventors and those who have devoted much time to discoveries.     

Real exchange rate dynamics in the presence of non-traded goods and transaction costs

This paper studies the role of non-traded goods and transaction costs in accounting for the puzzling behavior of real exchange rates. We show that introducing the transaction costs and non-traded goods in an otherwise standard competitive model dramatically improves its ability to rationalize observed real exchange rate dynamics.     

Firm size,age, industrial networking,and growth: a case of the Korean manufacturing industry

This paper investigates the roles of firm size, age, and industrial networking in determining firm growth. Analyses using the 2-year panel data of 7,889 Korean manufacturing firms between 1994 and 2003 confirm that firm size and age have significant negative effects on firm growth and significant positive impacts on firm survival. R&D and export activities are found to facilitate both firm growth and survival. The primary focus of this study is to examine the effects of industrial networking, such as subcontracting and clustering, on firm growth. The results show that subcontracting does not yield any positive effect for firm growth, but encumbers survival, which may be accounted for by the high subcontracting intensity among small firms. Clustering, on the other hand, is found to promote firm growth and survival. There is, however, little evidence that such a positive effect of clustering is derived from network externalities through cooperation and competition among firms in a cluster per se.     

China's food and agriculture: A turning point

The prospects for food and agriculture in China depend upon the prospects for changes in the population between urban and rural sectors, changes in the levels of food consumption in these sectors, and the potential for increasing production in response to increased demand. Prof Ishikawa examines the elements influencing demand pressure, the economics of mechanisation in China, and the economic and social conditions in which the mechanisation can be realised. He concludes that China is facing a new situation in which a significant change in either or both the resource allocation pattern and the incentive system will be required.     

Dual labor market hypothesis and long-run income distribution

We construct a dynamic model of dual labor market, incorporating firm investment behavior and household investment behavior on education. Education enhances the trainability of individuals and thus provides qualifications for entry into the primary market. Two specifications of the model, differing in the nature of the new entrants' market, are presented; one admitting competitive adjustment in the scarcity premium of qualified entrants, while the other, a generalization of Thurow's job competition model, allocates employment through rationing. We obtain sharply different long-run determinants of income distribution between these alternative models. The result extends and qualifies existing interpretations on the schooling paradox observed in the U.S.     

The relationship between multinationality and performance: Knowledge-intensive vs. capital-intensive service micro-multinational enterprises

This research explores the relationship between multinationality and firm performance (M-P) in the context of micro-multinational enterprises (mMNEs) within the service sector. We examine the moderating effects of industry characteristics using a data set of 1082 Spanish service mMNEs over an eight-year period. The empirical results provide statistical evidence that knowledge-intensive service mMNEs exhibit an inverted U-shaped M-P relationship, while capital-intensive service mMNEs present a U-shaped relationship. Our findings demonstrate that knowledge-intensive service mMNEs increase their performance in the initial stage of multinationality, encounter a threshold of internationalization at relatively low levels of multinationality and have a propensity to over-internationalize. By comparison, capital-intensive service mMNEs experience negative performance effects at low levels of multinationality and positive ones as they further internationalize. Given that their operations are scale-sensitive, they tend to expand internationally by concentrating their operations in few foreign markets as a means to overcome the liabilities of internationalization and smallness. We contribute to the literatures on multinationality research in the service sector and on SME internationalization by showing that the effects of multinationality on the performance of mMNEs depend on industry characteristics and that such contextual factors provide a better understanding of the M-P relationship.     

The effectiveness of fear appeals in ‘green’ advertising: An analysis of creative,consumer, and source variables*

This study focused on the effectiveness of fear appeal messages used to arouse a threat in green advertising. An experiment recruited 175 participants to test the influence of the advertising appeal (fear vs. non-fear appeal), source (for-profit vs. non-profit organizations), and involvement with the environment on attitude toward the ad (A_ad), attitude toward the product (A_p) and purchase intention (PI). Results revealed that a fear appeal in a green ad negatively affected A_ad and A_p and that participants who were highly involved with the environment were more likely to have positive attitudes toward the green ad and advertised green product as well as a stronger intent to purchase it. The source type in the green ad did not affect ad effectiveness and involvement with the environment did not moderate the effects of either appeal or source.     

Asymmetric capital structure adjustments: New evidence from dynamic panel threshold models

We develop a dynamic panel threshold model of capital structure to test the dynamic trade-off theory, allowing for asymmetries in firms' adjustments toward target leverage. Our novel estimation approach is able to consistently estimate heterogeneous speeds of adjustment in different regimes as well as to properly test for the threshold effect. We consider several proxies for adjustment costs that affect the asymmetries in capital structure adjustments and find evidence that firms with large financing imbalance (or a deficit), large investment or low earnings volatility adjust faster than those with the opposite characteristics. Firms not only adjust at different rates but also seem to adjust toward heterogeneous leverage targets. Moreover, we document a consistent pattern that firms undertaking quick adjustment are over-levered with a financing deficit and rely heavily on equity issues to make such adjustment.     

Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option-implied tail risk

This paper focuses on an unexplored dimension of fund managers’ timing ability: Market-wide tail risk implied by information in options markets. Constructing the option-implied tail risk, we investigate whether hedge fund managers can strategically time the tail risk through adjusting their exposure to changes of it. Using an extensive sample of equity-oriented hedge funds, we find strong evidence of tail risk timing ability of hedge fund managers. Furthermore, tail risk timing ability brings significant economic value to investors. Top-ranked funds outperform bottom-ranked funds by 5–7% annually after adjusting for risk factors. Our results are robust to various robustness checks.