Quasi‐rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market

A statistically optimal inference about agents' ex ante price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a quasi‐rational forecasting regression equation. The modelling approach, which builds on a Hamilton‐type framework, includes endogenous production and allows expected cash price to be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components. We therefore infer the relative importance of various informational sources in expectation formation. Results show that, in addition to the quasi‐rational forecast, the true supply shock, future prices, and ex post commodity price forecast errors have, at times, been influential in broiler producers' price expectations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring the future for pensions pillarisation

The pensions pillarisation agenda envisages a reduction in the role of social insurance while simultaneously advocating the parallel expansion of fully funded private sector, occupational and personal retirement contingencies. Widespread perception of looming state failure in the field of pensions delivery highlights the inherent limitations of current pension delivery arrangements. However, moves to de-emphasise the provision afforded by, predominantly, monopillar state-mandated pension systems by expanding private privision represent short-term palliative responses to deep rooted structural and demographic problems. Multipillar systems appear no more capable of guaranteeing system funding in the face of demographic ageing and structural unemployment than existing monopillar systems. Moreover, a diminished role for social insurance will leave the low paid and unemployed significantly more vulnerable in old age. Consequently, this paper argues for a pension reform agenda which, in terms of levels of income substitution, will secure an adequate social insurance element into the future.     

UNIT MANAGEMENT BUYOUTS, STOCKHOLDER WEALTH, AND SELLING FIRMS' CHARACTERISTICS

Previous research on unit management buyouts, UMBs, has shown that selling firms benefit from the selloff transaction. The current research demonstrates that when the selling firm has either poor liquidity or poor earnings, selling firm shareholders do not benefit as much. We hypothesize that the unit managers have knowledge about the selling firm's difficulties so they do not pay as large a premium for the assets. Since the unit managers technically are employed by the selling firm shareholders, their bargaining to achieve a better price is an agency cost. Finally, selloff frequency does not affect seller abnormal returns.     

High school athletics and the wages of black males

This article examines the effects of high school athletic participation on the future wages of black males. Our evidence suggests that former black male athletes receive significantly greater wages than their otherwise comparable counterparts. Data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth was used for the analysis and allows for comparisons of the athlete premium to be made at different points in time. Both the human capital and signaling models are discussed. There appears to be a once and for all enhancement to human capital that accrues to black males who participated in high school athletics. The article adds to the literature on determinants of black male wages and on the earnings effects of athletic participation.     

Capital Markets and Capital Formation in Australia 1890–1945

This survey article examines the interaction between the domestic capital markets and capital formation in Australia from the 1890s up to the end of World War II. The disenchantment of the City of London with Australian securities in the 1890s opened a window for the development of domestic capital markets. It was the demands of the government for funds, especially during both wars, that transformed the scale and character of local markets. Local deposit taking institutions and stock exchanges handled a sufficient volume of domestic savings to fund the lion's share of both public and private sector capital formation.     

An Economic Analysis of Auto Compensation Systems: Choice Experiences From New Jersey and Pennsylvania

Nearly since the first automobile traveled on U.S. soil, questions about how best to compensate people injured by their use have been raised. As early as in 1932, in fact, the tort system of imposing costs on negligent drivers was strongly criticized, and a system of compensation without regard to negligence recommended. Yet despite various efforts to identify and implement improved systems during the past more than 70 years, no clear best compensation mechanism has been found. Current discussions have focused on the “choice” system, under which insureds are allowed to select either a tort system or a no‐fault system of compensation at the time of insurance purchase. New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which implemented very similar choice programs in 1989 and 1990, respectively, offer an opportunity to observe the effects of choice on outcomes such as: use of attorneys, speed of payment, and consistency (equity) of payment. Our results indicate outcomes consistent with expectations in New Jersey (NJ), which switched from no‐fault to choice, but inconsistent with expectations in Pennsylvania (PA), which switched from tort to choice. Furthermore, analysis of tort versus no‐fault selectors postchoice in New Jersey and Pennsylvania does not offer clear evidence of no‐fault's lower administrative costs and speedier, more equitable payment in these jurisdictions.