Applying a microfounded-forecasting approach to predict Brazilian inflation

We investigate whether combining forecasts from surveys of expectations is a helpful empirical strategy for forecasting inflation in Brazil. We employ the FGV–IBRE Economic Tendency Survey, which consists of monthly qualitative information from approximately 2000 consumers since 2006, and also the Focus Survey of the Central Bank of Brazil, with daily forecasts since 1999 from roughly 250 professional forecasters. Natural candidates to win a forecast competition in the literature of surveys of expectations are the (consensus) cross-sectional average forecasts (AF). We first show that these forecasts are a bias-ridden version of the conditional expectation of inflation using the no-bias tests proposed in Issler and Lima (J Econom 152(2):153–164, 2009) and Gaglianone and Issler (Microfounded forecasting, 2015). The results reveal interesting data features: Consumers systematically overestimate inflation (by 2.01 p.p., on average), whereas market agents underestimate it (by 0.68 p.p. over the same sample). Next, we employ a pseudo out-of-sample analysis to evaluate different forecasting methods: the AR(1) model, the Granger and Ramanathan (J Forecast 3:197–204, 1984) forecast combination (GR) technique, a Phillips-curve based method, the Capistrán and Timmermann (J Bus Econ Stat 27:428–440, 2009) combination method, the consensus forecast (AF), the bias-corrected average forecast (BCAF), and the extended BCAF. Results reveal that: (i) the MSE of the AR(1) model is higher compared to the GR (and usually lower compared to the AF); and (ii) the extended BCAF is more accurate than the BCAF, which, in turn, dominates the AF. This validates the view that the bias corrections are a useful device for forecasting using surveys. The Phillips-curve based method has a median performance in terms of MSE, and the Capistrán and Timmermann (2009) combination method fares slightly worse.     

The drowning-refugee effect: media salience and xenophobic attitudes

We study whether salient media coverage of refugees drowning in the Mediterranean affects individual xenophobic attitudes. We combine a randomized survey experiment – a variant of the classic ‘trolley dilemma’ – that implicitly elicits individual attitudes towards foreigners, with variation in interview timing, and find that such issue salience significantly decreases xenophobic attitudes by 2.2 percentage points. Our results thus support the idea that exposure to news describing immigrants as victims (instead of a threat) can significantly affect public opinion and mitigate bias against immigrants.     

THE 'TEXTURE' OF ORGANIZING IN AN ITALIAN UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT*

The texture of organizing is an elusive concept, one that embraces the intangible quality of the activities of an organization's members. In this article we use examples taken from an empirical study of a department of mathematics in an Italian university to illustrate the social processes that underlie the construction of texture. We define ‘texture’ as that imaginative domain of organizational actors where processes such as the creation of a sense of togetherness and of ownership, mutual understanding and misunderstanding of organizational life, shifting memberships and audiences link and interweave. Some methodological issues concerning the concept of texture are also examined.     

SCIENCE-BASED R&D IN SCHUMPETERIAN GROWTH

Firm success is often associated with the development of better products. Private firms undertake applied R&D seeking market advantage, by capitalizing on the freely accessible results of basic research. But unpatentable basic research often fails to address applied R&D open problems. What is the role of the incentives in improving the innovative performance of an economy by matching partially motivated public researchers to their mission? Sometimes government-funded research projects are mission-directed, and yet in many cases the public sector academics indulge in carrier-driven research. An innovation system where, as in the United States, basic research is also driven by patents implicitly sets an ex-post incentive to the researchers guided by invisible hand. For a public innovation system – like the European one – designing an incentive scheme to motivate public researchers is of key importance for fostering the performance of the economic system. This paper extends the Schumpeterian multisector growth model with vertical innovation by highlighting a link between the degree of 'targetness' of public research and aggregate innovation. A positive effect of social capital is also proved.     

Estimating the benefits of low flow alleviation in rivers: the case of the Ticino River

In Switzerland 60% of electricity is produced by hydropower plants. The construction and operation of these plants determine some negative environmental externalities, such as diminishing groundwater levels and spring flows, and a reduction in river flow, which can severely curtail recreational and fishing activities. This study concentrates on an ex-ante appraisal of the monetary benefits resulting from an enhancement of river flow for recreational fishing purposes. A comparison of estimates of these benefits to the corresponding costs, in terms of loss of electricity production, incurred by hydropower plants to alleviate low flows may be useful for policy makers. For this analysis, as suggested by Layman et al. (Land Economics 72, pp. 113-128, 1996), the Travel Cost Method (TCM) is extended to estimate the economic value of recreational fishing in the Ticino River (the most important river of the Canton Ticino) under existing and hypothetical river flow conditions. Anglers were asked to state how the number of trips they took to the Ticino River would change if an increase in the river flow was imposed on the hydropower plants. The empirical results show that an enhancement of river flow increases the annual consumer surplus for a typical angler by approximately 440 SFr.     

The functional-psychological continuum in the cognitive image of a destination: A confirmatory analysis

This paper analyses the cognitive component of the image of a destination from a dual perspective. Firstly, we study its composition by positing three positions on a continuum: functional, mixed and psychological, which are analysed using confirmatory factor analysis. Secondly, we study the influence of these components on tourists' overall image of the destination and on their future behaviour intentions, using structural equation analysis. The results show that the psychological and functional components exercise the greatest influence on the overall image of the destination. Overall image was found to influence future behaviour intentions consistently, while the functional component is relevant for revisit intention and the psychological component for the intention to recommend.     

Relevance of qualifications and work experience in the recruiting of foreign‐trained immigrants – comparative insights from the Health and ICT Sectors in Germany and Canada

Germany and Canada differ significantly regarding their migration policy as well as the structures of the national labour markets and their educational systems. This paper aims to analyse how these differences affect the labour market outcomes of immigrants and the usability of foreign qualifications and work experiences by using the health and ICT sectors as example. The comparison focuses on the question how qualifications and work experience serve as signals and are screened for in the recruiting process of enterprises. The results show clear differences as well as several commonalities between the two compared countries.     

Are required SEC proxy disclosures about the board’s role in risk oversight substantive?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires companies it regulates to include disclosures about the board’s role in risk oversight in the annual proxy statement to shareholders. The SEC does not mandate specific content or actions that boards should perform as part of their risk oversight responsibilities, leaving the nature of activities and extent of those disclosures to the discretion of the reporting entity. This study examines whether these disclosures contain substantive information reflective of the effectiveness of the organization’s risk oversight. We find that organizations disclosing more specific information (but not simply more information) about board risk oversight practices are associated with firms independently assessed as having the strongest management and governance processes. These findings suggest that these firms use the discretion provided by the SEC’s disclosure rule to provide substantive and potentially value-relevant information for stakeholders about the entity’s risk management processes and board risk oversight activities.     

Contractual networks: an organizational model to reduce the competitive disadvantage of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Europe’s less developed regions. A survey in southern Italy

International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal - Limitations faced by southern Italy’s small enterprises due to their dimensions may be overcome by cooperation strategies and network...