Regulation Fair Disclosure and Earnings Information: Market, Analyst, and Corporate Responses

With the adoption of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), market behavior around earnings releases displays no significant change in return volatility (after controlling for decimalization of stock trading) but significant increases in trading volume due to difference in opinion. Analyst forecast dispersion increases, and increases in other measures of disagreement and difference of opinion suggest greater difficulty in forming forecasts beyond the current quarter. Corporations increase the quantity of voluntary disclosures, but only for current quarter earnings. Thus, Reg FD seems to increase the quantity of information available to the public while imposing greater demands on investment professionals.     

Book Reviews

Geoffrey Jones. The Evolution of International Business. An Introduction.
Hugo Armstron and Dick Gross. Tricontinental: The Rise and Fall of a Merchant Bank.
Bob Catley. Globalising Australian Capitalism.
Peter Groenewegen. A Soaring Eagle: Alfred Marshall 1842–1924.
Michael Schneider. J. A. Hobson.
Roy MacLeod and Deepar Kumar (eds). Technology and the Raj: Western Technology and Technical Transfers to India 1700–1947.
Tirthankar Roy (ed.). Cloth and Commerce. Textiles in Colonial India.
Deborah Oxley. Convict Maids.     

On measuring the wealth of nations: the US economy, 1964-2001

This paper examines the methodology of Shaikh and Tonak (Measuringthe Wealth of Nations, 1994) underlying their calculation ofestimates of productive labour in the US economy from 1964 to2001. The focus is not on the results but on the methods thatgenerate them. The paper finds that the compromises made byShaikh and Tonak because of data unavailability are unreliable,and that better approximations are possible. On this latterbasis, the Shaikh and Tonak methodology can be used to providethe labour and wage estimates needed for empirical investigationsin the surplus-based tradition.     

Food Choice in an Interdisciplinary Context

Reform of agricultural policies, notably the continuing elimination of production‐enhancing subsidies, makes it possible for policies to respond to social issues such as the rural environment and health in future. In this paper, we draw on a Rural Economy and Land Use (RELU) research project which is examining the potential for the development of healthy food chains and the implications for human health and the environment. One of the key issues to be addressed is consumers’ willingness to pay for the nutritionally enhanced food products from these new chains, but it is evident that only a partial understanding can be gained from a traditional economics approach. In the paper, we discuss how economists are beginning to incorporate views from other disciplines into their models of consumer choice.     

Hymer and Uneven Development Revisited: Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Inequalities

Picking up on one of Hymer's key contributions, this paper examinesthe impact that inward foreign direct investment (FDI) intothe UK has on the patterns of development, both within and acrossregions. Using a panel of data for the manufacturing sector,the paper illustrates that even where one isolates the effecton the domestic sector alone, inward investment acts to increasethe demand for skilled, relative to unskilled labour, and alsogenerates the expected agglomeration effects in terms of thedemand for capital investment. The paper then goes on to drawcertain policy comparisons between these findings and the desiredaim of attracting FDI, notably to increase demand for labourin those regions suffering structural unemployment, and secondlyto reduce the disparities between regions.     

中国货币政策紧缩 到底有多紧？

[英国路透社3月18日]中国反复重申，转向“紧缩”货币政策，取代之前“适度从紧”政策，以抑制创下10年新高的通货膨胀。     

Schools of thought in organizational learning

This article attempts to bring coherence to the diversity that characterizes organizational learning research. It argues that organizational learning is embedded in four schools of thought: an economic school, a managerial school, a developmental school, and a process school. The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the schools, describes how they differ from each other, and outlines how each of them can be employed effectively. To demonstrate the benefits of theoretical plurality, the four schools are applied to the key marketing topics of market orientation and new product development. Implications for future research in marketing are provided. Simon J. Bell is a lecturer in marketing in the Faculty of Economics and Commerce at the University of Melbourne. Gregory J. Whitwell is an associate professor of marketing in the Faculty of Economics and Commerce at the University of Melbourne. Bryan A. Lukas is an associate professor of marketing and director of the Master of Applied Commerce Program in the Faculty of Economics and Commerce at the University of Melbourne.     

Some Tests of APT Mispricing Using Mimicking Portfolios

Cross-sectional and time-series tests using mimicking portfolios are used to assess the exactness of the APT with(out) a residual market factor. The first factor seems to be sufficient to span the efficient set, whether the model is estimated using (un)conditional variance-covariance matrices that are (un)adjusted for nonsynchronous trading. Although the conditional standard deviations of the mimicking portfolios significantly explain the time-variability of security volatilities, the residuals of the mean equation still exhibit heteroskedasticity. Similar results are obtained for portfolios of CAPM-betaranked securities, and for randomly selected individual securities.     

Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.