Modelling Regional House Prices in the UK

Maximum likelihood cointegration methods are used to analyse the determinants of house prices in each of the eleven regions of the UK. Broad similarities in the structure of house price equations are found across regions in England and Wales (but not Scotland or Northern Ireland), indicating that the source of differences in English and Welsh regional house prices should probably be sought in different regional incomes, opportunity costs, and housing starts. Tests of spatial dependence in regional house prices cast doubt on the well-known 'ripple effect' hypothesis.     

Why the computer industry is restructuring now

For over 30 years the computer industry has been a growth sector. Recently major players have run into trouble and many smaller ones have fallen under the onslaught of two major forces. Firstly, what is being sold, to whom, and with what margins is changing rapidly as computing moves from being an immature, high technology market for major corporations and specialists to a mass market for every size of firm. Secondly, the industry has by tradition depended on a confused jumble of proprietary standards to defend market share. Today the phenomenon of open systems is destroying those old defences. Long-term survival will mean not only adjusting to the effects of open systems on reducing traditional margins but also playing by the new rules of the resultant commodity market. Success will depend on rapid readjustment, with exploitation of the internal influences of open systems on the company value chain, in order to slim down yet achieve a new scale of productivity.     

KLSE Long Run Overreaction and the Chinese New-Year Effect

This study investigates long run overreaction and seasonal effects for Malaysian stocks quoted on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE), for the period 1986–1996. Stocks exhibiting extreme returns relative to the market over a three year period experience a reversal of fortunes during the following three years. There is also evidence that employing a contrarian trading strategy may yield excess returns. Of particular interest is the apparent existence of a Chinese New Year effect in both the level of market returns, and the overreaction profile for KLSE stocks. These seasonalities mirror the January-effect observed in US markets.     

Selective hedging with market views and risk limits: the case of Hydro-Quebec

This study presents how Hydro-Quebec manages its short-term financial risks. The quantitative hedging model is articulated over forward and volatility premia and constrained by a yearly risk limit provided by the firm's Finance Committee. The hedging solutions provide the optimal linear hedging parameters and option strike levels. The second part of the paper is devoted to a theoretical analysis of the sensitivity of the optimal solutions to changes in the premia, by means of the general implicit function theorem.     

A note on nominal government expenditure targets

In IS-LM models, government expenditure is usually fixed in real terms. In this short note, we examine some of the implications of nominal government expenditure targets for both model stability and comparative statics. When a fixed money supply policy is in operation, nominal government expenditure targets may stabilize an otherwise unstable system. If this is the case, an increase in the nominal stock of money will reduce the price level in the long run.     

Complexity concepts and the limitations of computable models

As they are implemented in modern computers, computable languages and computable models allow a new approach to logical and scientific thinking. Complexity and decidability problems imply some fundamental limitations to deterministic models. Some striking examples are given by large interactive programs. Different complexity concepts may be distinguished for the representations of data and for algorithms, with consequences relative to the feasibility of models. They are applied to various domains: history, power and politics, economy, and living beings.     

Challenges and new research avenues in marketing science

This paper is a revised version of the key note speech which the author gave at the 1984 Annual Conference of the European Marketing Academy (EMAC). The author critically evaluates the contributions of marketing science with respect to practical relevance and managerial decision making. He diagnoses a number of substantial discrepancies between research efforts and adoption of marketing science models. Some causes for this situation are identified and new more comprehensive research avenues are proposed and discussed. It is the intention of the article to stimulate further discussion on these important issues. Necessarily, many statements in this position paper are based on subjective judgement and not validated in a scientific sense.     

Competitive Tendering and Contracting in the Public Sector: A Survey

This paper is a survey of the role and impact of competitive tendering and contracting (CTC) policies in the public sector. The paper examines the theoretical rationale for introducing competition in the provision of public services and the methodology by which contracting decisions are reached. It investigates the extent of implementation and nature of outcomes in several countries. A broad sweep of the empirical findings suggests that CTC generates substantial cost savings. Lack of adequate data makes an assessment of the effect on quality more troublesome, and further research is needed