Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

Connecting strategic orientation,innovation strategy,and corporate sustainability: A model for sustainable development through stakeholder engagement

This paper aims to enhance our understanding of the relationship between organizations' strategic orientation (i.e., instrumental, equidistant, and stewardship) and their innovational strategy (i.e., organizational ambidexterity and open innovation), and this relationship's influence on their sustainability performance. We expected organizations' strategic orientation to influence their innovational strategy and exhibit better corporate sustainability. We focused on 12 different multinational organizations in the Eurozone and found that inbound open innovation acts as a driver for corporate sustainability while simultaneously positively enabling organizations to pursue both financial and social initiatives. After suggesting open innovation as a new corporate sustainability antecedent, we only found empirical evidence of inbound open innovation. However, we would suggest that if organizations incorporated outbound open innovation in their strategy, they could likely improve their corporate sustainability. Also, we found that achieving an equidistant or stewardship orientation paves the way for sustainability to become an integral part of an organization's innovational culture and actualizes the organization's strategic behavior. Our findings further contribute to a deeper understanding of organizations' characteristics as their sustainability commitment grows and as they move from an instrumental to a stewardship orientation and implement an open innovational strategy.     

Aggregative games and oligopoly theory: short-run and long-run analysis

We compile an IO toolkit for aggregative games with positive and normative comparative statics results for asymmetric oligopoly in the short and long run. We characterize the class of aggregative Bertrand and Cournot oligopoly games, and the subset for which the aggregate is a summary statistic for consumer welfare. We close the model with a monopolistically competitive fringe for long-run analysis. Remarkably, we show strong neutrality properties in the long run across a wide range of market structures. The results elucidate aggregative games as a unifying principle in the literature on merger analysis, privatization, Stackelberg leadership, and cost shocks.     

Do data policy restrictions impact the productivity performance of firms and industries?

This paper examines how policies regulating the cross‐border movement and domestic use of electronic data on the internet impact the productivity of firms in sectors relying on electronic data. In doing so, we collect regulatory information on a group of developed economies and create an index that measures the regulatory restrictiveness of each country's data policies. The index is based on observable policy measures that explicitly inhibit the cross‐border movement and domestic use of data. Using cross‐country firm‐level and industry‐level data, we analyse econometrically the extent to which these data regulations over time impact the productivity performance of downstream firms and industries, respectively. We show that stricter data policies have a negative and significant impact on the performance of downstream firms in sectors reliant on electronic data. This adverse effect is stronger for countries with strong technology networks, for servicified firms, and holds for several robustness checks.     

Financial globalisation and the labour share in developing countries: The type of capital matters

In this paper, we investigate how de facto financial globalisation has influenced the labour share in developing countries. Our main argument is the need to distinguish between different types of capital in this context as they differ in their effect on the host countries' production process and vary concerning their bargaining power vis-à-vis labour. Our econometric analysis of the impact of foreign direct versus portfolio investment in a sample of about 40 developing and transition countries after 1992 supports this claim. Using different panel data techniques to address potential endogeneity problems, we find that foreign direct investment has a positive effect on the labour share in developing countries, while the impact of portfolio investment is significantly smaller and potentially negative. Our results also highlight that de facto foreign investment cannot explain the decline of the labour share in developing countries over the investigated period.     

Innovative ethics officers as drivers of effective ethics programs: An empirical study in the Netherlands

Ethical misconduct and violations seriously harm individuals and organizations and lead to massive fines or the dismissal of employees and CEOs. Many firms have implemented ethics programs to prevent unethical behavior but these are often ineffective and take a traditional approach. Ethics officers are often responsible for running and developing ethics programs, in collaboration with other departments. They can, therefore, play a key role in improving ethics program effectiveness. We postulate that ethics officers need to adopt a more innovative approach in order to achieve ethical behavior among employees and managers, and that such an innovative approach requires certain personality traits. This study investigates how ethics officers’ personality traits and innovative work behaviors relate to the effectiveness of ethics programs and normative ethical behavior through an online questionnaire conducted among 110 ethics officers in large Dutch organizations. Structural equations modeling showed that innovative work behavior mediated the relationship between ethics officers’ openness to experience and ethics program effectiveness which, in turn, is related to more normative ethical behavior. Future research must examine the (partial) mediation effects, including other characteristics of ethics officers in relation to ethics program effectiveness and ethical behaviors at work, and replicate the study multi‐nationally.     

Linking sustainable business models and supply chains — Toward an integrated value creation framework

Extant literature on sustainable business models highlights that value creation stems from resources exchanged in relationships between a focal firm and its stakeholders. In this context, the literature has, so far, focused on direct relationships. However, despite the acknowledged relevance of sustainability issues in supply chains, this relational view of the focal company and its direct stakeholders has not been extended toward value creation for and with indirect stakeholders, such as stakeholders of suppliers. Addressing this gap, this conceptual article integrates a relational view of sustainable supply chain management into the management of sustainable business models. It extends the scope of sustainable business models from relationships between the focal firm and its direct stakeholders to indirect relationships with stakeholders of suppliers. A framework is developed that supports analysis and management of value-creating relationships between the focal firm, suppliers, and stakeholders of suppliers. By extending the conceptualization of sustainable business models to consider relationship chains beyond direct relationships, this article proposes that a focal firm has to actively manage interactions both with suppliers and with suppliers' stakeholders.     

Organisational consequences of asymmetries in task dependence: the moderating role of HR practices

This study integrates recent advances in interdependence theory with the literature on commitment‐based HR practices. New research on interdependence theory suggests that differences, or asymmetries, in task dependence among organisational members can cause interests to diverge. Prior research has shown that this can negatively affect interpersonal relations, individual outcomes and team processes. However, these insights gained on the dyadic, individual and team levels of analysis have not yet been explored at the organisational level and, until now, no research had yet connected these advances in interdependence theory to the field of HRM research. Hence, the current study investigates (a) whether asymmetries in task dependence do (or do not) matter at the organisational level and affect organisational effectiveness, (b) why this relationship may work by assessing a key mediator, namely, trust climate and (c) if and how these relationships can be altered by commitment‐based HR practices. Our moderated‐mediation model was tested and fully supported by a multi‐source data set of 8,390 employees from 67 organisations.