Short reports

In this study, we assessed the epidemiological patterns of suicide terrorism in the civilian population of Pakistan. Information about suicide terrorism-related events, deaths and injuries was extracted from the South-Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP) for the period from 2002 to October 2009. Of 198 events, civilians were involved in 194 events. Civilians accounted for 74.1% (N = 2017) of those who died and 93.8% (N = 6129) of those who were injured. In nine districts, mortality rates were more than one death per 100,000 inhabitants per year. The yearly trend showed a shift of attack targets from foreigners and sectarian targets in 2002–2005 to security forces or general public in 2006–2009. Attacks on public installations (mosques) or political gatherings resulted in a significantly greater (P ≤ 0.02) number of deaths (22 vs. 8) and injuries (59 vs. 24) per event compared with security installations. These results show that prevention might focus on political negotiation with armed groups and that appropriate measures should be taken to protect mosques and political gatherings.     

Psychosocial Influences on Children's Food Consumption

This exploratory study generated a grounded theory of factors influencing children's diets, particularly those that contribute to suboptimal eating and ultimately child obesity. The study involved 124 children (aged 6–12 years) and 39 of their parents from three separate junior schools (including a lower, middle, and higher socioeconomic school). Research methods included (i) interviews with children and parents and (ii) observations, drawings, and lunchbox audits with children. The findings suggest that children and parents prioritize psychosocial needs over physiological needs during food selection and consumption. This tendency toward psychosocial eating appears to be strongly reinforced by food advertising.     

Testing the sufficiency of the theory of planned behavior: a case of customer dissatisfaction responses in restaurants

This study tested the sufficiency of both the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the extended TPB models by adding the variable of past behavior. In addition, the present study examined the mediating role of the TPB variables on the relationships between past behavior and customers’ intentions to engage in different types of dissatisfaction responses (i.e., voice, negative word-of-mouth communication, and exit). Results of the study demonstrated the strong predictive power of the original TPB mode but the inclusion of past behavior did not significantly improve the predictability of the three dissatisfaction response intentions. Furthermore, the mediating analyses indicated that the influence of past behavior was mediated by TPB variables. In the contexts of negative word-of-mouth communication, the effect of past behavior on intention was mediated by attitude. Meanwhile, both subjective norm and perceived behavioral control mediated the relationship between past behavior and the intention to engage in voice behavior.     

Individual risk tolerance and herding behaviors in financial forecasts

Financial analysts tend to demonstrate herding behavior, which sometimes compromises accuracy. A number of explanations spanning rational economic logic, cognitive biases, and social forces have been suggested. Relying on an experimental setting where participants forecast future earnings from a rich information set, we posit and obtain support for individual risk tolerance (or lack thereof) as an explanatory variable for herding behaviors. Specifically, less risk‐tolerant individuals forecast with less boldness and instead issue forecasts in agreement with the consensus forecast. The results are argued to be at least partially a product of cognitive biases and an intuitive reaction to uncertainty.     

Information asymmetry and the value of cash

This study investigates the market value of corporate cash holdings in connection with firm-specific and time-varying information asymmetry. Analyzing a large international sample, we test two opposing hypotheses. According to the pecking order theory, adverse selection problems make external financing costly and imply a higher market value of a marginal dollar of cash in states with higher information asymmetry. In contrast, the free cash flow theory predicts that excessive cash holdings bundled with higher information asymmetry generate moral hazard problems and lead to a lower market value of a marginal dollar of cash. We use the dispersion of analysts’ earnings per share forecasts as our main measure of firm-specific and time-varying information asymmetry. Extending the valuation regressions of Fama and French [Fama, E.F., French, K.R., 1998. Taxes, financing decisions, and firm value. Journal of Finance 53, 819–843], our results support the free cash flow theory and indicate that the value of corporate cash holdings is lower in states with a higher degree of information asymmetry.     

Is there a business cycle in Singapore? Is there a Singaporean business cycle?

This paper explores the existence and examines the characteristics, if any, of business cycles in Singapore. Specifically, the authors ask: Is there a business cycle in Singapore? Is there a Singaporean business cycle? Unlike earlier studies, this paper investigates whether or not there exists a business cycle in Singapore and employs cross-spectral analysis and factor analysis which have advantages over the time-domain techniques. The study shows that there is a business cycle in Singapore and its frequency does not coincide with the periodicity of the two recessions experienced by the country. However, the business cycle is not in any meaningful way Singaporean, as evidenced by the existence of three international factors explaining about 99 percent of the common variance of the series. The idiosyncratic factor is well below 1 percent in all Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries with the exception of the Philippines. The findings have a number of significant implications both from the theoretical and policymaking viewpoint.     

Market-Channel Choices of Indonesian Potato Farmers: A Best–Worst Scaling Experiment

We present an empirical analysis of how buyer (and trader) attributes influence decisions of market participation and channel choice among smallholder potato farmers in West Java, Indonesia. We use a best–worst scaling experiment to evaluate the determinants of these decisions and gauge the influence of buyer attributes. Our latent-class cluster analysis reveals that producers have heterogeneous preferences for buyer attributes, which address classic smallholder constraints such as access to inputs, credit, and information. This heterogeneity can be somewhat explained by household characteristics and assets. The broad mass of our sample sought buyers whose attributes imply lower market risk for farmers. Yet roughly a quarter of our sample, a portion that included farmers with large, specialised farms, sought buyers who could provide inputs such as high-quality seeds.