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Ein allgemeines Konstruktionsverfahren für Konfidenzbereiche

Summary A theorem ofTakács concerning interchangeable random variables is used to derive a simple method for the construction of confidence regions. Applying this method to a location parametera we get a.s. convergence of the confidence interval toa if the sample sizen increases while its probability is (n–1)/(n+1). Under certain conditions the interval contains always the maximum-likelihood estimate and another estimate which results from a least squares postulate. Lower bounds are given for the probability that our intervals become shorter than the intervals we would get relying on the central limit theorem. In order to avoid an assumption of finite support needed first to derive the a.s. convergence, we modify our method omitting extreme values.The modified intervals converge forn with probability 1 to the true parameter value under weaker conditions. A lower bound for the probability and-using a result due toRényi-theasymptotic probability of the modified interval is given. For the two kinds of intervals a formula concerning the velocity of their convergence to the length 0 is derived.Finally, the results are extended to a shift parameter in the two-sample case. Here we derive for equal sample sizes the exact probability of the modified interval and give upper and lower bounds fir its asymptotic probability. The method is practicable also if one sample size is an integer multiple of the other.     

Drug Policy‐making in Metropolitan Areas: Urban Conflicts and Governance

This article retraces the emergence and shows the implications of current regulative frameworks in the field of urban drug policy. Framed by an analytical perspective that is based on the concept of urban governance, the article focuses on the processes by which cooperation and coordination between various conflicting governmental and non‐governmental agencies are achieved to address drug‐related problems in the major agglomerations of Switzerland, as well as in the metropolitan areas of Amsterdam, Glasgow and Frankfurt am Main. In the first part, it is shown that these problems are structured and debated along a conflict between advocates of the public‐health approach and those of the public‐order approach in the field of drug policy, as well as, to a lesser extent, a conflict between core cities and fringe municipalities about spillover effects related to the provision of services for users of illegal drugs. It is argued that this stems from a general tension between the goals of an attractiveness policy aimed at enhancing local economic development, and the necessities of social policy needed to address urban social problems. The second part examines the emergence of mechanisms of governance aimed at addressing drug‐related urban problems. It is argued that a ‘social public order’ regime emerged to regulate drug‐related urban problems, controlling urban practices of drug users by a combination of police and social work. In addition, it is held that in Switzerland, where social policy is traditionally confined to municipalities, these mechanisms of governance contributed to the emergence of metropolitan regions as new territorial actors in the field of drug policy. Cet article retrace l'apparition et les implications des cadres régulateurs actuels dans le domaine de la politique urbaine contre la drogue. Dans une perspective analytique fondée sur le concept de gouvernance urbaine, il s'attache aux processus qui permettent coopération et coordination entre divers organismes antagonistes, gouvernementaux ou non, pour traiter des problèmes liés à la drogue dans les principales agglomérations suisses, ainsi que dans les zones métropolitaines d'Amsterdam, Glasgow et Francfort‐sur‐le‐Main. La première partie démontre que ces questions sont organisées et discutées au sein d'une opposition entre partisans de l'approche de santé publique et ceux de l'ordre public en matière de politique de lutte contre la drogue, ainsi que, dans une moindre mesure, au sein d'un conflit entre les villes centrales et les municipalités satellites sur les retombées des services mis en place pour les consommateurs de drogues; cette situation résulte d'une tension globale entre les objectifs d'une politique d'attraction visant à favoriser le developpement économique local, et les nécessités d'une politique sociale obligée de traiter les problèmes urbains. La deuxième partie étudie l'émergence de mécanismes de gouvernance en réponse aux problèmes urbains liés à la drogue; ainsi, un régime ‘d'ordre public social’ a vu le jour, les pratiques urbaines des consommateurs de drogue étant sous le contrôle combiné de la police et des travailleurs sociaux. De plus, en Suisse où la politique sociale est par tradition du ressort des municipalités, certaines zones métropolitaines sont devenues, grâce à ces mécanismes de gouvernance, de nouveaux acteurs territoriaux de la politique publique de lutte contre la drogue.     

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS FOR AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING: A CASE STUDY

Investment opportunities for electronics manufacturing can create many challenging components within the standard context of economic analysis theory. First, most of these operations are dependent on significant capital investment with short analysis periods due to technological obsolescence. These problems are compounded with the reality of short product lives and fluctuating consumer demands. Perhaps the most challenging environment for electronics manufacturing is that of automotive electronics. These facilities are typically faced with similar manufacturing issues common in all electronics production but have the added difficulty in meeting very stringent quality and reliability requirements in a globally competitive market. This case study investigates the challenges in evaluating investment options in electronics manufacturing and pays specific attention to those issues that are most common to the automotive electronics market. In addition, the analysis investigates various sensitivity issues related to these investment opportunities and investigates an alternative investment option for a flexible manufacturing process.     

Evolution of tourism in a flagship protected area of China

Nature-based tourism in protected areas, which is growing worldwide, offers much potential to enhance biodiversity conservation, poverty alleviation, and ultimately sustainable development. Understanding the evolution of protected areas as tourism destinations and the causes and consequences of changing supply and demand elements is an essential step toward sustainably managing tourism in these critical ecosystems. This research applied the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model to illustrate and analyze the 30-year evolution of tourism in Wolong Nature Reserve. Being inscribed in UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and World Heritage programmes, Wolong is a flagship protected area in China. We showed that the Reserve experienced exploration, involvement, and development stages of the TALC before tourism growth was completely halted by the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008. We systematically investigated the changes related to the evolution of tourism and identified various internal and external driving forces. We examined the dynamics of politics, economy, and tourism growth that might propel the Reserve through the life cycle and identified significant tourism governance structural changes through the stages. The results have implications for sustainable tourism development in China's protected areas and also contribute to a broader and general understanding of the complex relationships between protected areas, sustainable tourism, and community development.     

Does taking vacations make people happy? A regional disparity perspective

This study examines happiness determinants from a regional disparity perspective. Data from a national leisure survey conducted in South Korea was used. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression was performed. Findings indicate that leisure satisfaction, vacationing, participation in club activities, participation in volunteer activities, gender, marital status, household income, and education level were significantly related to respondents’ happiness. These determinants were further investigated by regional segmentation. In tests to determine the strength of vacationing and self-rating of leisure satisfaction on happiness, leisure satisfaction was found to be significantly and positively related to happiness levels after controlling for respondents’ characteristics.     

Profit Related Pay and the U.K. Small Firm Labour Market

This paper critically examines the relevance of profit related pay (PRP) for the U.K. small firm sector. Since 1986, the U.K. government has actively encouraged PRP, which attracts generous tax breaks, because it believed that PRP would make pay more flexible downwards and would significantly improve employee identification, morale and productivity. An analysis of the theoretical arguments and the assumptions made regarding the nature of the U.K. small firm sector that underlay these claims suggests, however, that the likelihood of achieving either of these alleged benefits is small. An appraisal of the available empirical evidence on the practical implementation and operation of PRP schemes suggests that the tax relief simply encourages firms to introduce cosmetic schemes that have no appreciable impact upon the behaviour of either firms or employees. Moreover, the experience of some firms that adopted PRP schemes indicates that, far from increasing morale and productivity, PRP often creates new tensions and conflict between owners and employees. These and other unintended consequences illustrate the inherent difficulties of government attempts to use the tax system to alter the behaviour of agents engaged in a wide variety of complex and very heterogeneous bargaining situations.