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81.
Although the long–run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is expected to hold across tradable goods, all price indices available to researchers for testing the validity of PPP contain some proportion of non–tradable goods prices, which may generate substantial persistence in the real exchange rate. We construct time series for quarterly price indices that minimize the presence of non–tradable goods for six major economies. Applying recently developed nonlinear econometric techniques to the resulting five US dollar real exchange rate series for the recent floating exchange rate regime, we provide evidence that the nonlinear mean reverting properties of these real exchange rate series are stronger than the mean reverting properties of real exchange rate time series constructed using the consumer price index (CPI). In turn, these results have a natural economic interpretation.
(J.E.L.: F31). 相似文献
(J.E.L.: F31). 相似文献
82.
This paper primarily examines whether the ‘hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve’ (HNKPC) holds for four important emerging economics viz., Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. This has been done after testing for the structural stability of this relationship. Econometric issues like the test of unit roots in presence of a structural break and estimation of output gap have also been done appropriately. Our findings suggest that the HNKPC is not stable for all the four countries. However, the analysis based on the two sub-periods thus formed clearly shows mixed evidence in respect of holding of this relationship.
相似文献83.
Prabal Roy Chowdhury 《Bulletin of economic research》2010,62(2):181-195
We relate pricing policy of firms to their size, where firm size is interpreted as the size of the clientele served by the concerned firm. We argue that a firm with a large clientele faces a more severe reputational backlash if it ‘reneges’, i.e., deviates from its earlier price offer. This allows the firm to effectively commit to its offers, leading to a unique equilibrium without delay. Interestingly, this equilibrium corresponds to the equilibrium of the related model that does not allow for reneging possibilities. For smaller firms, however, the reputational effects are much less intense, and consequently the equilibria may involve deviation possibilities. In this case, the equilibria are non‐unique and may involve delays as well. 相似文献
84.
The difficulty in assigning priority weights in the multiple objective optimisation exercise of the planning process often leads to arbitrariness in the determination of priority weights. However, Frish (1957) has demonstrated that despite Arrow's famous impossibility theorem, a social preference function can be numerically established by systematically interviewing the decision makers or responsible politicians. In the light of the above, this paper attempts to achieve two goals: (a) that it is, indeed, possible to find intuitively plausible numerical priority weights and (b) the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) can be used to translate the interview responses into cardinal ordering. The close correspondence between the investment allocations of the Planning Commission and those derived from the priority weights of our exercise with AHP implies that AHP can be used to by-pass detailed planning exercises and thereby make planning more flexible. 相似文献
85.
86.
Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah Venus Khim-Sen Liew Ibrahim Chowdhury 《International Review of Economics & Finance》2010,19(4):648-661
This paper provides new evidence on the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis in six East Asian countries. Based on nonlinear unit root tests, we discovered that the results are broadly consistent with the fact that real exchange rates (RERs) follow a nonlinear mean reversion process. We presented new evidence that the adjustment towards the PPP parity is asymmetric (LSTAR process) above and below the equilibrium value in all but one case — the Malaysian ringgit (MYR). The empirical results suggest that it is important that the conventional tests of PPP be amended to take account of asymmetries in the adjustment process in RERs. 相似文献
87.
Who drives whom ‐ sukuk or bond? A new evidence from granger causality and wavelet approach 下载免费PDF全文
Md. Mahmudul Haque Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury Abdul Aziz Buriev Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha Mansur Masih 《Review of Financial Economics》2018,36(2):117-132
Sukuk is a highly appealing alternative instrument of conventional bond in the financial market over the last two decades. To a certain extent, the market players assume sukuk as the same as bond. However, sukuk has its own fundamental asset backed principles, whereas bond is backed by debt. The objective of the study is to examine the Granger‐causality and lead–lag relationship between sukuk and bond by using the data of the Malaysian Government securities return for both conventional and Islamic instruments. The data for every working day of 7 years covering the period from January 31, 2007 to December 31, 2013 were collected from Bloomberg database. The yield returns of both securities have been plotted for each six months of a year. This study applied both Granger‐causality and dynamic co‐movement techniques such as, continuous wavelet transforms (CWT) coherence for analyzing the temporal evolution of the frequency content of both securities by decomposing each period into different time scales. The empirical findings of the paper reveal that with a bit of exception, there is a causal relationship between sukuk securities and conventional bonds for a given period of time. For robustness, this study applied the wavelet coherence approach and found that bond is led by sukuk in the long term investment horizon rather than in the short term. Our findings relating to the lead‐lag relationship between sukuk and bonds have important implications in terms of policy regulations and investment management. Future research and market practices could reinvestigate the differences between these two securities across different markets and types. 相似文献
88.
Prabal Roy Chowdhury 《Group Decision and Negotiation》2003,12(3):195-215
We consider a two period model with complete information involving three agents, two on one side of the market, and one on the other. The agents on the same side of the market bargain, among themselves, over whether to form a team or not, and also with the other agent, either singly or as a team, regarding the payoffs. We characterize the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium of this game. We find that the behavioral assumptions regarding the agents play a critical role in the outcome. If the agents are combative then the outcome is efficient. Whereas if the agents are peace loving, and the discount factor is large, then the outcome may involve delay, as well as (inefficient) team formation. 相似文献
89.
Khorshed Chowdhury 《Applied economics》2013,45(12):1121-1131
In an attempt to resolve the existing controversy about the cause and effect relationship between external dept and economic slowdown, Granger causality tests are conducted with data on indebted developing countries of Asia and Pacific. The results of these tests indicate that the Bulow–Rogoff proposition that the external debts of developing countries are a symptom rather than a cause of economic slowdown is rejected. They also indicate that the Dornbush–Krugman proposition that external dept leads to economic slowdown is also rejected. Moreover, a feedback-type relationship is not rejected for two countries. In view of the mixed results, this paper also estimates the nexus of inter-relationship between public and private external dept accumulation, capital accumulation and production within a simultaneous equation system. The estimation results indicate that the full effects of the public and private external depts on GNP are small and of an opposite sign, whereas an increase in the GNP level raises substantially the public and private external depts. These findings support Bulow–Rogoff's proposition that the external debts of developing countries are not a primary cause of economic slowdown. 相似文献
90.
The world eocnomy is currently adjusting to a low inflation regime which has implicastions for the cross-country distribution of world growth opportunities. In contrast to previous related work which assumes unidirectional causality, this paper uses the Granger methodology to examine both the direction and pattern of causality between inflation and economic growth in 70 countries using annual data over the period 1960–89. Among the conclusions are that first, the relationship between inflation and growth is non-uniform across countries: 40% of countries studied reveal no causality, one-third exhibit unidirectional causality and about one-fifth of countries show bidirectional causality, second, a vast majority of countries which show either uni- or bi-directional causality beong to the industrial group, and third, the low world inflation regime will on balance redistribute real growth opportunities benefit away from the developing countries towards the industrialized countries. 相似文献