Economic announcements and the 10-year U.S. Treasury: Surprising findings without the surprise component

In the current study, we identify the announcements that trigger substantial changes in the behaviour of the 10-year US Treasury market, without using the surprise component and, therefore, expectational data. We use a novel model-free approach based on extreme market movements related to price returns, volatility and traded volumes. Our findings corroborate those of previous studies, which were based on expectational data. More importantly, though, we identify two additional announcements (Oil Inventories and the Mortgage Applications), which have not been previously reported. These findings are primarily important to financial analysts and investors.     

Optimal taxation in the presence of bailouts

The termination of a representative financial firm due to excessive leverage may lead to substantial bankruptcy costs. A government in the tradition of Ramsey (1927) may be inclined to provide transfers to the firm so as to prevent its liquidation and the associated deadweight costs. It is shown that the optimal taxation policy to finance such transfers exhibits procyclicality and history dependence, even in a complete market. These results are in contrast with pre-existing literature on optimal fiscal policy, and are driven by the endogeneity of the transfer payments that are required to salvage the financial firm.     

Bailouts,the incentive to manage risk,and financial crises

A firm's termination leads to bankruptcy costs. This may create an incentive for outside stakeholders or the firm's debtholders to bail out the firm as bankruptcy looms. Because of this implicit guarantee, firm shareholders have an incentive to increase volatility in order to exploit the implicit protection. However, if they increase volatility too much they may induce the guarantee-extending parties to “walk away.” I derive the optimal risk management rule in such a framework and show that it allows high volatility choices, while net worth is high. However, risk limits tighten abruptly when the firm's net worth declines below an endogenously determined threshold. Hence, the model reproduces the qualitative features of existing risk management rules, and can account for phenomena such as “flight to quality.”     

Economic impact of switching from metoprolol to nebivolol for hypertension treatment: a retrospective database analysis

Objective:

To estimate the real-world economic impact of switching hypertensive patients from metoprolol, a commonly prescribed, generic, non-vasodilatory β₁-blocker, to nebivolol, a branded-protected vasodilatory β₁-blocker.

Methods:

Retrospective analysis with a pre–post study design was conducted using the MarketScan database (2007–2011). Hypertensive patients continuously treated with metoprolol for ≥6 months (pre-period) and then switched to nebivolol for ≥6 months (post-period) were identified. The index date for switching was defined as the first nebivolol dispensing date. Data were collected for the two 6-month periods pre- and post-switching. Monthly healthcare resource utilization and healthcare costs pre- and post-switching were calculated and compared using Wilcoxon test and paired t-test. Medical costs at different years were inflated to the 2011 dollar.

Results:

In total, 2259 patients (mean age: 60 years; male: 52%; cardiovascular [CV] disease: 37%) met the selection criteria. Switching to nebivolol was associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of all-cause hospitalization (?33%; p?p?p?p?p?Conclusions:

This real-world study suggests that switching from metoprolol to nebivolol is associated with an increase in medication costs and significant reductions in hospitalizations and outpatient visits upon switching, resulting in an overall neutral effect on healthcare costs. These results may be interpreted with caution due to lack of a comparator group and confounding control caused by design and limitations inherent in insurance claims data.     

Herding,anti-herding behaviour in metal commodities futures: a novel portfolio-based approach

The purpose of this article is twofold. Motivated by the heated debate on the financialization of commodities, we examine the existence of herding behaviour in metal commodities futures. In order to identify any time-dependent properties reflected in time-varying parameters, we employ the overlapping rolling window regression technique. The empirical evidence confirms a time-varying anti-herding behaviour before the global financial crisis and the absence of herding or anti-herding behaviour during the crisis. Next we attempt to formally establish the link between the documented anti-herding behaviour and portfolio management with the use of dynamic conditional correlations via the DCC-GARCH family multivariate modelling. After specifying the correlations, an in-sample recursive dynamic Markowitz portfolio is constructed and monitored. By doing so, we attribute the anti-herding behaviour to different portfolio positioning and rebalancing. On the other hand, in the absence of herding or anti-herding behaviour, we document a shift in the correlations and covariances of the commodity futures especially during the crisis, resulting in a decrease of the portfolio weights together with a substantial cash flow towards the risk-free asset.     

Austrian Economics,Socialism and Impure Forms of Economic Organisation

Modern supporters of the Austrian school of economics maintain that their critical stance towards impure forms of economic organisation - such as the mixed economy - grew out of the arguments of Mises and Hayek during the socialist calculation debate of the 1930s. The paper assesses the two theorists, contributions in the debate and argues that their ideas cannot provide the basis for a general rejection of impure forms of economic organisation. First of all, and contrary to most modern Austrians, who consider the contributions of Mises and Hayek as essentially consistent, it is argued that Hayek's critique of socialism is much more effective than Mises' as it rests on his concept of tacit knowldge and on an evolutionary account of the emergence of capitalist institutions. However, the paper goes on to argue that, if Hayek's critique of state intervention is to have any relevance for contemporary capitalist economies, it must be in a position to show the non-viability not only of a fully centrally planned economy of the Soviet type but also of the mixed economy. It is argued that it is precisely in this that Hayek's evolutionism fails, for his teleological approach is not persuasive in ruling out the possibility of impure forms of capitalism in a manner that is consistent with truly evolutionary - i.e. non-teleological - ideas.     

Rolling-sampled parameters of ARCH and Levy-stable models

In this article an asymmetric autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model is applied to some well-known financial indices (DAX30, FTSE20, FTSE100 and SP500), using a rolling sample of constant size, in order to investigate whether the values of the estimated parameters of the model change over time. Although, there are changes in the estimated parameters reflecting that structural properties and trading behaviour alter over time, the ARCH model adequately forecasts the one-day-ahead volatility. A simulation study has been carried out to investigate whether the time-variant attitude holds in the case of a generated ARCH data process revealing that either in that case the rolling-sampled parameters are time varying. The rolling analysis is also applied to estimate the parameters of a Levy-stable distribution. The empirical findings support that the stable parameters are also time variant.     

Hedging Corporate Bonds

We examine Treasury bond and stock index futures, the swap curve and two types of hypothetical corporate bond assets as alternative hedging instruments for portfolios of corporate bonds. Conducting ex post and ex ante tests we find evidence that credit quality and maturity are important sources of basis risk when hedging corporate bonds whose credit rating are below triple A. We conclude that a new corporate hedging instrument may be useful for those wishing to hedge corporate bond portfolios provided that transaction costs are not too high relative to existing futures contracts.     

On universal admissibility of scale parameter estimators

A characterization result of Kushary (1998) regarding universal admissibility of equivariant estimators in the one parameter gamma distribution is generalized to a scale family of distributions with monotone likelihood ratio. New examples are given, among them the F-distribution with a scale parameter. In particular, universal admissibility is characterized within the class of location-scale equivariant estimators of the ratio of the variances of two normal distributions with unknown means. In this context the maximum likelihood estimator is shown to be universally inadmissible by virtue of a general sufficient condition for universal inadmissibility of a scale equivariant estimator. Received: January 2000     

Justifying health IT investments: A process model of framing practices and reputational value

Despite important research contributions on the financial and operational dimensions of information technology (IT) value, justifying health IT (HIT) investments remains a difficult and enduring issue for IT managers. Recent work has expanded our understanding of HIT value, by focusing on the initial resource allocation stage, and through conceptualizations of value across multiple dimensions. Building on these developments, we adopt a performative perspective to examine the research question of how practitioners justify early stage HIT investments, with a focus on reputational value. We explored this question through a comparative field study of two hospital organizations in the English National Health Service (NHS). We found that practitioners' temporally orientated framing practices matter in justifying HIT investments, enacting different possibilities for reputational value. We develop a process model to explain these dynamics and highlight the mutability of reputational value, which can lead to different possibilities for restoring, enhancing, or maintaining reputation. We conclude by discussing the implications for justifying HIT investments.