Structural production layer decomposition: a new method to measure differences between MRIO databases for footprint assessments

Recent empirical assessments revealed that footprint indicators calculated with various multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases deliver deviating results. In this paper, we propose a new method, called structural production layer decomposition (SPLD), which complements existing structural decomposition approaches. SPLD enables differentiating between effects stemming from specific parts in the technology matrix, e.g. trade blocks vs. domestic blocks, while still allowing to link the various effects to the total region footprint. Using the carbon footprint of the EU-28 in 2011 as an example, we analyse the differences between EXIOBASE, Eora, GTAP and WIOD. Identical environmental data are used across all MRIO databases. In all model comparisons, variations in domestic blocks have a more significant impact on the carbon footprint than variations in trade blocks. The results provide a wealth of information for MRIO developers and are relevant for policy makers designing climate policy measures targeted to specific stages along product supply chains.     

LEADERSHIP IN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION: CONSEQUENCES AND INCENTIVES

Initiatives in favor of unilateral action on climate change are frequently challenged by concerns over free riding. Nevertheless, we observe an increasing number of unilateral efforts at different administrative levels and in different parts of the world. Previous academic literature described various individual mechanisms where emissions abroad may increase or decrease as a reaction to unilateral emission reductions. In this paper, we collect a comprehensive set of both positive and negative reactions and analyze them in stylized models. This allows us to identify the most important characteristics that determine the potential of a leader to boost mitigation efforts abroad. We find that this potential depends on (i) a strong ability to generate knowledge through leadership, (ii) a high degree of credibility in the international community, and (iii) a similar economic structure to the most important emitters. While most effects are difficult to quantify, this comprehensive assessment suggests that leakage effects resulting from unilateral mitigation may well be outweighed by positive reactions.     

The multiple filter test for change point detection in time series

A framework for the detection of change points in the expectation in sequences of random variables is presented. Specifically, we investigate time series with general distributional assumptions that may show an unknown number of change points in the expectation occurring on multiple time scales and that may also contain change points in other parameters. To that end we propose a multiple filter test (MFT) that tests the null hypothesis of constant expectation and, in case of rejection of the null hypothesis, an algorithm that estimates the change points.The MFT has three important benefits. First, it allows for general distributional assumptions in the underlying model, assuming piecewise sequences of i.i.d. random variables, where also relaxations with regard to identical distribution or independence are possible. Second, it uses a MOSUM type statistic and an asymptotic setting in which the MOSUM process converges weakly to a functional of a Brownian motion which is then used to simulate the rejection threshold of the statistical test. This approach enables a simultaneous application of multiple MOSUM processes which improves the detection of change points that occur on different time scales. Third, we also show that the method is practically robust against changes in other distributional parameters such as the variance or higher order moments which might occur with or even without a change in expectation. A function implementing the described test and change point estimation is available in the R package MFT.     

Debating liberalism: Walter Eucken,F. A. Hayek and the early history of the Mont Pèlerin Society

The Review of Austrian Economics - Walter Eucken is mostly known for his impact on establishing the Social Market Economy in post-war Germany. In this paper we identify how Eucken was highly...     

Comparing Regulations to Protect the Commons: An Experimental Investigation

In a laboratory experiment we test three regulations imposed on a common-pool resource game with heterogeneous users: an access fee and subsidy scheme, transferable quotas and non-transferable quotas. We calibrate the game so that all regulations improve users’ profits compared to free-access extraction. We compare the regulations according to five criteria: resource preservation, individual profits, profit difference, Pareto-improvement from free-access and sorting of the most efficient users. One of the main findings is that, even though it performs better in sorting out the most efficient subjects, the fee and subsidy scheme is not more profitable than tradable quotas.     

Fetal Iodine Deficiency and Schooling: A Replication of Field,Robles, and Torero (2009)*

Scholars have theorized that congenital health endowment is an important determinant of economic outcomes later in a person's life. Field, Robles, and Torero (2009, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1, 140–169) find large increases in educational attainment caused by a reduction of fetal iodine deficiency following a set of iodine supplementation programs in Tanzania. We revisit the Tanzanian iodine programs with a narrow and wide replication of the study by Field et al. We are able to exactly replicate the original results. We find, however, that the findings are sensitive to alternative specification choices and sample restrictions. We try to address some of these concerns in the wide replication; we increase the sample size fourfold, and we improve the precision of the treatment variable by incorporating new institutional and medical insights. Despite the improvements, no effect is found. We conclude that the available data do not provide sufficient power to detect a possible effect, as treatment assignment cannot be measured with sufficient precision.     

The α-beauty contest: Choosing numbers, thinking intervals

We present a model for the α-beauty contest that explains common patterns in experimental data of one-shot and iterative games. The approach is based on two basic assumptions. First, players iteratively update their recent guesses. Second, players estimate intervals rather than exact numbers to cope with incomplete knowledge of other players' rationality. Under these assumptions we extend the cognitive hierarchy model of Camerer et al. [Camerer, C., Ho, T., Chong, J., 2003b. A cognitive hierarchy model of one-shot games. Quart. J. Econ. 119, 861–898]. The extended model is estimated on experimental data from a newspaper experiment.     

Home sweet host: A cross‐country perspective on prudential and monetary policy spillovers through global banks

Prudential regulation of banks is multi‐layered: policy changes by home‐country authorities affect banks’ global operations across many jurisdictions; policy changes by host‐country authorities shape banks’ operations in the host jurisdiction regardless of the nationality of the parent bank. Do these policies create (unintended) cross‐border spillovers? Similarly, monetary policy actions by major central banks may also have effects on the behaviour of banks in other countries. This paper examines the effect that changes in home‐ and host‐country prudential measures have on cross‐border dollar credit provision, and how these interact with US monetary policy. We first run panel regressions with both layers of regulation, to examine which has a greater effect on cross‐border lending. We then use a novel approach to decompose growth in cross‐border bank lending into separate home, host and common components, and then match each with the corresponding home or host policies. Our results suggest that prudential policies can have spillover effects, which depend on the instrument used and on whether a bank's home or host country implemented them. Home policies tend to have larger spillovers on cross‐border US dollar lending than host policies. We also find that a tightening of US monetary policy can compound the spillovers of some prudential measures.     

Research cooperation and international standards in a model of coalition stability

Suggestions on international cooperation in climate policy beyond 2012 include substituting or complementing international environmental agreements (IEA) with technology-oriented agreements (TOA). We look at the impact of TOA on environmental cooperation in a framework of coalition stability. Using a numerical model, we analyze the differences of several TOA and how they interact. We find that participation in and environmental effectiveness of the IEA are raised less effectively when the TOA focuses on research cooperation in mitigation technology rather than cooperation on augmenting productivity in the private good sector. This is due to the former having an effect on all actors via emissions, whereas effects of the latter are exclusive to research partners. For the same reason, we find that restricting research cooperation to the coalition is only credible when it focuses on productivity. Technology standards that reduce the emission intensity of production are unlikely to raise participation by themselves and may suffer from inefficiencies. However, these disadvantages do not apply when standards are implemented as a complementary instrument. Separately negotiated technology standards may hence facilitate participation in an IEA without adding to its complexity.     

The impact of stricter criteria for disability insurance on labor force participation

This paper studies the effect of a large-scale policy change in the Austrian disability insurance program, which tightened eligibility criteria for men above a certain age. Using administrative data on the universe of Austrian private-sector employees, the results of difference-in-difference regressions suggest a substantial and statistically significant decline in disability enrollment of 6 to 7.4 percentage points and an increase in employment of 1.6 to 3.4 percentage points. The policy change had important spillover effects into the unemployment and sickness insurance program. Specifically, the share of individuals receiving unemployment benefits increased by 3.5 to 3.9 percentage points, and the share receiving sickness insurance benefits, by roughly 0.7 percentage points.