The New Keynesian Phillips curve and the role of expectations: Evidence from the CESifo World Economic Survey

We provide evidence on the fit of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve for selected Euro zone countries, the US and the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments, we use direct measures of inflation expectations from the CESifo World Economic Survey. Our main findings are as follows: (i) The use of survey data gives empirical results, which are more reliable than those obtained from the GMM approach. (ii) The purely forward-looking Phillips curve can be rejected in favor of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. (iii) The estimated coefficients on past inflation are higher when using survey expectations than when using the rational expectations GMM approach. (iv) It remains unclear whether real unit labor costs or a measure of the output gap should be used as a proxy for real marginal costs. (v) Theory-based restrictions lead to an improvement of the empirical results.     

Aggregate information cascades

We introduce a new model of aggregate information cascades where only one of two possible actions is observable to others. Agents make a binary decision in sequence. The order is random and agents are not aware of their own position in the sequence. When called upon, they are only informed about the total number of others who have chosen the observable action before them. This informational structure arises naturally in many applications. Our most important result is that only one type of cascade arises in equilibrium, the aggregate cascade on the observable action. A cascade on the unobservable action never arises.     

Price competition and reputation in markets for experience goods: an experimental study

We experimentally examine the effects of price competition in markets for experience goods where sellers can build up reputations for quality. We compare price competition to monopolistic markets and markets where prices are exogenously fixed. Although oligopolies benefit consumers regardless of whether prices are fixed or endogenously chosen, we find that price competition lowers efficiency as consumers pay too little attention to reputation for quality. This provides empirical support to recent models in behavioral industrial organization that assume that consumers may, with increasing complexity of the marketplace, focus on selected dimensions of products.     

Cultural change that sticks

When a major change initiative runs aground, leaders often blame their company's culture for pushing it off course. They try to forge ahead by overhauling the culture--a tactic that tends to fizzle, fail, or backfire. Most cultures are too well entrenched to be jettisoned. The secret is to stop fighting your culture--and to work with and within it, until it evolves in the right direction. Today's best-performing companies, such as Southwest Airlines, Apple, and the Four Seasons, understand this, say the authors, three consultants from Booz & Company. These organizations follow five principles for making the most of their cultures: 1. Match strategy to culture. Culture trumps strategy every time, no matter how brilliant the plan, so the two need to be in alignment. 2. Focus on a few critical shifts in behavior. Wholesale change is hard; choose your battles wisely. 3. Honor the strengths of the existing culture. Every culture is the product of good intentions and has strengths; put them to use. 4. Integrate formal and informal interventions. Don't just implement new rules and processes; identify "influencers" who can bring other employees along. 5. Measure and monitor cultural evolution. Otherwise you can't identify backsliding or correct course. When the leaders of Aetna applied these rules while implementing a new strategy in the early 2000s, they reinvigorated the company's ailing culture and restored employee pride. That shift was reflected in the business results, as Aetna went from a $300 million loss to a $1.7 billion gain.     

Editorial

Original Papers

Editorial     

Income,happiness, and the disutility of labour

We re-examine the claim that the income effect on happiness is downward biased because higher income demands more work effort. We find no evidence of an underestimation because the impact of working hours on happiness is rather small and hill-shaped.     

Stackelberg Beats Cournot — On Collusion and Efficiency in Experimental Markets

We report on an experiment designed to compare Stackelberg and Cournot duopoly markets with quantity competition. We implement both a random matching and a fixed-pairs version for each market. Stackelberg markets yield, regardless of the matching scheme, higher outputs than Cournot markets and, thus, higher efficiency. For Cournot markets, we replicate a pattern known from previous experiments. There is stable equilibrium play under random matching and partial collusion under fixed pairs. We also find, for Stackelberg markets, that competition becomes less intense when firms remain in pairs but we find considerable deviations from the subgame perfect equilibrium prediction which can be attributed to an aversion to disadvantageous inequality.     

Plant-level employment development before collective displacements: comparing mass layoffs,plant closures and bankruptcies

This article analyzes the development of employment levels and worker flows before bankruptcies, plant closure without bankruptcies and mass layoffs. Utilizing administrative plant-level data for Germany, we find no systematic employment reductions prior to mass layoffs, a strong and long-lasting reduction prior to closures, and a much shorter shadow of death preceding bankruptcies. Employment reductions in closing plants, in contrast to bankruptcies and mass layoffs, do not come along with increased worker flows. These patterns point to an intended and controlled shrinking strategy for closures without bankruptcy and to an unintended collapse for bankruptcies and mass layoffs.     

Entrepreneurship as translation: Understanding entrepreneurial opportunities through actor-network theory

Entrepreneurship scholars argue that opportunities are at the heart of entrepreneurial activity. Yet, there is still a heated debate on the nature of opportunities. The discovery view argues that opportunities are discovered and have objective existence prior to the entrepreneurial process. The creation view argues that the discovery view is incomplete and makes wrongful assumptions about agency, process and opportunities in entrepreneurship. More conceptual development, however, is needed for the creation view to become a fully developed theoretical alternative to the discovery view. In this article, Actor-Network Theory is used to develop the creation view and further our understanding of entrepreneurial processes.